Need Help! FFL question

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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So we are in year 19 of my leagues fantasy football group. We do an auction draft and we each get one keeper. There are other complicated and different settings but here’s just a quick overview. Each year a players salary increases based on performance and “contract” for lack of a better term. The cheaper you are the more standard yearly increase I played gets.

Example: a player that goes for a $1 automatically goes up $6 the following year, plus his performance also gets an increase.

I have two options and I go back and forth everyday.
-Jamarr Chase is $23 to keep (up from $13 last season)
-Javonte Williams is $18 to keep (up from $11 last season)

Question is, who do you keep? If I’m just looking at next season it’s easy, I keep Chase. But long term having an elite back for a huge discount is huge. So maybe Williams has the better long term outlook.

We also have this option called a topper. Long story short, if a player was on your team from last year, you can top 1 player. How this works is if another player wins a bid on a player that you had last season, you get the option to take him. The winning bid then gets one more chance to bid again.

Example: winning bud is Chase for $50. I top him…then the winning bidder can say $65 if he wanted. I get him for $66 if I chose. Or I let him go. So chances are I get both back, one is just no longer a Keeper due to salary.

So what would you guys choose??? I know not everyone plays FF, but I’m just bored and seeing if I’m crazy even considered JWill

Thanks guys!

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Good morning JD,

Both are likely to have a great foreseeable futures. Under “normal” circumstances, I would lean RB. In this case I would tell you that Chase is in a better tier, likely 2 tiers+ over Williams. So, I would keep Chase.

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Melvin Gordon re-signing really hurts JWills ceiling for this upcoming season. But in 2023 and beyond…what do you think?

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I agree that Gordon is a one-year issue. I like Williams but he should be cheaper on the “topper” as well.

But the long-term for Chase is still a higher ceiling than Williams. Chase is likely to be elite for few years (and know I do not use the term elite lightly. Elite=top2-3 players) Williams is likely to be in the top 10 RBs. He is moving upward, but I do not see him in the top tier of RBs. I don’t see this as a hard decision. Keep your elite guy.

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One of the reasons I most like J-Will is his durability. dude is invincible.
RBs split the carries so much these days. I’m not a FF guy at all, so I’m not qualified ot weigh in here. I’d just factor J-Will’s health in. Do you trust Chase’s health as much?
As for fantasy numbers, I’m clueless.

I’d also add that Goff is going ot surprise the entire fantasy football world this year.

With this OL, and the amount of space the speed guys create…Goff may be a nice selection for a QB.
Swift and Hoch would be great picks, if not for injury history.
RA might be a nice backup plan/2nd their guy.

Goff’s WRs and RBs are gonna have a TON of YACs because a Dan Campbell team will be slamming down some downfield blocks.

Goff is going to put up better numbers than most ppl think.

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I don’t think there’s such a thing as an invincible RB anymore, it’s just the nature of the position. Even Derrick Henry went down last year. It’s not a question of if, it’s a question of when.

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Javonte is much more handsome than this guy.
You’re right that RBs get banged up more than anyone.
I view him as a Bettis-type health guy. Maybe some small stuff here and there. Time will tell. I completely agree w/what you are saying, and I think Javonte is a unicorn.

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I pretty much stay away from Lions. Not because they aren’t fantasy worthy, but I’d rather not cheer for my dude to score. I want to not care who scores!

That being said, I would take a few of them if cheap enough. Swift, Jameson, and Hock the short list I would take. But nobody else.

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LOL - Yup. I stay away form Fantasy because I don’t want it to corrupt the purity of how I fan. I just can’t bring myself to root for players from other teams, unless there’s a “human” reason. Like with Matt, Josh Allen, and Javonte.

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I have no reason to doubt Chase’s health. That is usually as good as it gets for ff.

Both are young. Both have great futures ahead of them sans injury so it isn’t like there is a bad choice. So with that in mind, you pick the talent profile. I like Chase’s even if I give a premium to RBs.

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The premium to the RB position is the only reason Chase isn’t a slam dunk for me. Especially since after Williams first two years, he’s not gonna have a ton of miles on him.

If I keep Chase and top WillIams, I’m guessing it’s gonna cost ~$65

If I keep Williams and top Chase, I’m guessing it’s gonna cost ~$75

We have $300 cap with 12 starters vs the standard 9 starter league. I’ve never kept any other position outside RB before. I guess there is a first for everything!

I once had to decide between keeping Kareem Hunt for $24 or McCaffrey for $19 following his rookie year. I chose Hunt :man_facepalming:t2: And he was suspended the following season. I tend to make the wrong decisions in this spot lol.

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Yeah back then you had plenty of guys who could go through most of their careers without getting hurt. But the league has changed, players nowadays basically maximize what’s possible with the human body and the types of collisions they have are just different. And running backs are having more of those collisions than anyone else. It’s another reason why I don’t like to draft running backs too high, they’re going to get hurt.

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OK, now we have enough info to go on, to a degree.

How many teams in the league? What is the per team auction budget?

Is it PPR or 1/2 PPR?

How many QB, RB, WR, TE, Flex do you start?

Any weird settings like .25 point per rush, TE premium (2x PPR for TE), Can you play a QB in Flex? IDP?

Will you know where yo are in the player nomination process before the auction day? Helps with if you want to get the guy you didn’t keep thrown out there quick or you toss a guy to soak up money in the pool…

12 starters, so I’m assuming you have 1QB 2RB 3WR TE 3 FLEX K D. If this isn’t a SuperFlex ( playing QB in Flex spot) then QB is kind a wait and save $$ kind of deal. If it is SuperFlex, then QBs are GOLD and you need 3.

Javonte has MG3 annnnd now Russ to fight short yardage TD runs over. AFCW will be a shoot it out division, so lots of scoring opportunity. Tim Patrick just ACLd, and Hamler and the kid behind him are also dinged up. Jeudy and Sutton and Fant get passing game bumps. There is a LOT of fantasy pro man crush on Javonte…I’m a little more reserved. IS he a top 10 back now for Fantasy? Probably not. Next year? Probably.

Chase is the alpha dog on a high powered offense who has that Davante Adams/Aaron Rodgers type lock in with Burrow. The rest we know 1455 yds 13 TD 18 YPC (2nd in NFL), 81 catches…but I see 128 targets…in 17 games and go…
Think Winter Games GIF by Team USA

That was 20th in the league… and I think he can get into the top 10 this year around 140-150 targets. That’s gonna get home near 100 catches…maybe not 18 YPC this year, but 16? sure. SO I think his numbers are repeatable or can be exceeded…TDs? Who knows, 13 is a lot, but he looks like a gamebreaker.

So, I like Chase better for $5 more.

Also, I’ve been doing auction format fantasy leagues since 1989…I love them to death as they are MUCH more involved and require a LOT better preparation and a different skill set. I have had toppers this whole time. Love them. The ability for a winning bidder at price X after the gavel falls then be able to bump their price w/o any pressure so they can try and price out a topper right by another GM? Total horseshit. If you want a guy, bid your price to get him knowing that topper is out there. JMHO

Good luck! Sounds like a fun cool league.

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10 team league

Settings, and they are different for sure, but scoring is standard 1/2pt PPR. Passing 25yds passing TDs 4pts, rushing/receiving 10yds, TDs 6pts

Roster- 2 QBs, 3 WRs, 2 RBs, TE, WR/TE, RB/WR, K, Def, 3 Bench, 1 IR which can be used for anyone ruled out for a game.

*15 move FA limit for the entire season. This can make in season tricky and you have to be very smart with your moves. Maybe necessary to take a zero or two throughout the season.

Points league not a H2H. We do reserve 20% ($300) of the payout for a playoff finish to keep everyone interested and active throughout the season. 8 teams make the playoffs.

Now the Draft

We hold a lottery for a 2 round snake draft that takes place 2 days before the auction portion. We do this because it speeds up the draft about 2 hours. The auction portion is still about 6 hours long. Also because it adds another wrinkle which is always fun. Each roster can protect 4 players from being taken in the snake draft. They have to be on your roster to end the previous season, and they can never have hit free agency. Those 4 players are also your available toppers for the auction (but you can only top 1). The snake draft has pre determined values based on our league settings and scoring. So you are drafting players at set value. I am picking 1st and 20th this year for the snake portion. So I could leave Williams unprotected and take him 1. But I probably won’t do that.

I think that covers all the league settings. Everyone loves the format and the retention rate is almost 100% every year. We have lost a handful over the years and when a new player joins they have no roster carry over. Kind of an initiation into the league. Have a couple who are waiting for someone to drop.

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That looks like a very very interesting and cool league. Nice. We have a 25 move limit…15 is tight! Fun!

Yeah, JaMaar Chase, protect Javonte from the snake. You could go either way and be good though

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Crowdnoisewinschampionships offering to hold the funds for you…

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You say that now, but where were you before the draft???

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LOL.
Eggzackly

That was really funny, bro. Sure do wish we would have found a way to snag him.

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Seeing your roster breakdown, I certainly feel you should keep Chase. You (if I read this right) can have up to 4 WRs going. Your bench must be tight.

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Chase.

RB’s don’t last long and get injured more often.

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