NFL Draft Inequality- Brad Holmes- "please do your part in fixing the process.... TRADE DOWN!"

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
1

There are 100 plus posts a year advocating we trade down, and then another 100 plus posts a year saying why we shouldn’t or can’t… Here are a few things to chew as our guys are hammering things out in the “war room.” Please do not let one teams (Cincy Bengals) unlikely success, and recency bias sway common sense and years of data… The Rams have proven that NFL draft picks really are just magic beans in many cases, and avoiding the painful bust rate in exchange for top tier players can be a viable strategy… for some! In order for those players to be perpetually happy, it also helps when they are traded for LA, Dallas, Tampa, Miami, SF, or even NY- many teams have cities like Detroit, Indy, Cincy, Cleveland as part of their no trade clauses… bad weather, lacking national media and state income tax makes landing, and or keeping to tier talents- especially at Diva positions quite challenging.

Why is there draft inequality you ask? Because Jimmy Johnson performed grand larcecny 30 years ago, and now the top #1-3 picks in the draft are treated like it’s the NBA- There are 22 plus men on a football field, and VERY VERY rarely do a single rookie draft pick make significant impact. I get it, we just saw Burrow and J Chase carry Cincy from obscurity to the SB as two very recent #1 and #5 overall picks… We also have the Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Patriots, and Eagles who actually won the SB’s and NONE had a single player on their team they drafted top #4 or higher?

Zach Wilson, M Becton, and Q Williams collectively count nearly 30M against the salary cap…
Okudah, Sewell, and Hock will count nearly 30M collectively…

Take a look at the 2016 draft class… only 8 first rounders are still on their original teams…
Take a look at the 2017 draft class… only 13 first rounders made it through their 5 years w/team…
Take a look at the 2018 draft class… 12 out of 32 players drafted in round one are already gone from their drafting team before year 5!!! Either the 5th year was declined previously, cut, etc…

So teams drafting at the top of the class have about a 50% chance of not drafting a complete BUST- but keep in mind they are also on the hook for that 24-35MM fully guaranteed contract. Jeff Okudah is already costing us 9.1MM against our cap…

Having these ridiculous bust rates, plus fully guaranteed contracts that are heavily weighted toward the top 7 picks in round one ensures the teams drafting there will have higher proportion of the salary cap eaten up by guys like Clelin Ferrel, Jeff Okudah, CJ Henderson, etc…

We have already been made aware that- RG3, Luke Joeckyl, Greg Robinson, Mariota, Wentz, Trubisky, Saquon Barkley, N Bosa, C Young, and Z Wilson are the last 10 guys taken #2 overall…

Here the combined #3/#4 over the last 10 drafts…

  • T Richardson/M Khalil
  • D Jordan/L Johnson
  • B Bortles/S Watkins
  • D Fowler/A Cooper
  • Joey Bosa/Zeke Elliott
  • Soloman Thomas/ L Fournette
  • S Darnold/ D Ward
  • Q Williams/ C Ferrell
  • J Okudah/ A Thomas
  • T Lance/ K Pitts

THAT IS QUITE A SAMPLE SIZE- 10 consecutive years of #2, #3, and #4 overall…

Pitts, A Thomas, D Ward, Zeke, J Bosa, A Cooper, Lane Johnson, Q Williams, C Young, Khalil and N Bosa…

Those are 11 guys out of 30 I would say were “good” picks, and we still have Z Wilson and T Lance with the jury out… There are another 12 that are COMPLETE BUSTS with 25M plus in guaranteed money at signing… then we can make arguments one way or the other about Okudah, Saquon, Fournette, Watkins (he yielded a pick back), and Wentz…

  • WE AS FANS HAVE DEBATED THE - HUTCH VS THIBZ - cage match to death… The reason we can’t come to a consensus is that neither of these guys feels like Myles Garrett… They aren’t. Both face questions that brings that 55% first round BUST RATE into play…

We are arguing whether we NEED another OL player and the redundancy of Icky at #2, but if Icky turns out to be a healthy version of Lane Johnson, and Thibz turns out to be Dion Jordan, then All Pro RT vs busted EDGE please?

The problem is we don’t know… and history tells us odds are NOT in our favor… it’s a fact that for every J Chase there is a T Austin, H Ruggs, DHB etc…

How do we fix it? We trade down, we trade down again, we trade down again, and we add ammo for this year and next… We spread the 4 years contracts outs evenly over the years, and we don’t foolishly count on the “fake value” of the 5th years because A) it’s expensive and B) it doesn’t happen as much as we’d think!

There is a 38% chance we will CHOOSE NOT to exercise the 5th option intentionally…

  1. T Walker- odds he becomes a 10 sack DE? 25% at best imo
  2. ** Trade** Jets send #4 and #69 to Detroit for #2… A Hutchinson
  3. Derek Stingley
  4. Trade Seahawks send #9 and #40 to Detroit for #4 and #97… Icky Eckwonu
  5. Evan Neal
  6. Kenny Pickett
  7. Kayvon Thibodeaux
  8. … Now Atlanta has to decide between M Willis, WR1, and Sauce… I say they go WR1
  9. TRADE Saints trade #16, #49 and 2023 2nd rounder … Malik Willis
  10. Sauce
  11. WR2
  12. K Hamilton
  13. WR3
  14. C Cross
  15. J Davis
  16. ** DETROIT** we could consider another trade down for WR or QB needy team, but we could also stay here and take a pretty sure thing at WR, LB, S, CB, Edge- Olave, D Lloyd, Cine, McDuffie, or Jermaine Johnson???

So how can I go call these guys “pretty sure things” after talking about the dreadful bust rates???

Because at #16 overall we will be paying roughly 3.75M APY… we are picking up #40, #49 and #69… at roughly 2.1M APY, 1.8M APY, and 1.25M APY…

That is 4 players in a deep draft that will make a collective 8.9M apy- or slighly less than the guy we’d have taken at #2 by himself… We also pickup the 2nd in 2023… giving us 5 players vs 1 and 10.9M in APY vs 9.1MM on 1 player- and then filling out the other 4 roster spots with guys making 2.)M or so (just a guys like D Hamilton, T Benson, JRM, Marlowe etc)

PS- in the last 10 years- Zach Martin, Taylor Decker, Marlon Humphrey, Tremaine Edmunds, Brian Burns, and AJ Terrell have gone #16 so the success rate has actually be higher than #2 or #3 lol…

So not only do we have a chance to land a similar caliber Pro Bowl players at #16 (maybe slightly lesser) than #2, but those 4 extra players with the right guy making the picks will end up being a couple extra McNeill and ASB level players vs the fodder we sign off the street for a year at a time and 1.5-2.0M!!!

Just saying…

  1. Devin Lloyd- defensive captain, and we manufacture 5-6 sacks from MLB - like Colts w/ Leonard
  2. Arnold Ebiketie- a guy who I think could put up similar numbers to Jermaine Johnson…
  3. Jalen Pitre- another playmaker in the back end to go with what we’ve done on the 2nd level.
  4. Travis Jones- still want my game wrecker to move the LOS…
  5. WR
  6. James Cook RB
7 Likes
2

I don’t think you’re wrong about draft slotting and the overvaluation of the very top picks (at least via the trade chart). The reason I don’t spend a lot of time on trade downs has very little to do with us and more to do with finding trade partners.

We know teams are more likely to trade up than their fanbases would have us believe (NO fanbase wants to trade up, all of them want to trade down), but it still requires a lot of stuff to come together to pull off. The targeted player needs to fall. The compensation needs to be agreeable to both parties. The team trading down has to have a few guys they’re OK with picking. On and on. The percentage chance of a singular pick being moved in a trade-down is somewhere below 5%. I’m just playing the numbers.

2 Likes
3

I think there are two lines of thinking and that both make logical sense on a case to case basis.

1:) if you have strong convictions about a guy, go up and get him

2:) the draft is such a crapshoot that the most important thing is to have plenty of raffle tickets

4

That was a great post! Thank you for the time you put into it!

3 Likes
5

Yeah, I think you have that ratio off a bit.

Try roughly eleventy thousand trade down posts that net us roughly half of the picks in the entire draft, with a mere couple of us party poopers who bother to ask, “Why would the other team do that?”

6

The hype of chase being the reason the bengals made the super bowl is a little overblown. Yes he was a big part, but the bigger part was the revamped defense. They went from bottom tier to the top half of the league. Getting better as the season went on. Especially in the playoffs.

7

In this particular draft I’d be ok with the lions trading down a bit for less than ideal value. There isn’t much difference in talent from the players expected to go in the top 5 and those expected to go middle of the first. I’d accept a trade from someone like Seattle. Drop from 2 to 9 and pick up maybe a 2 and a 4 next year. Not ideal according to the trade chart but allows us to select another impact player while not dropping off in impact first round talent.

8

Agree on all counts sir!

The issue is the asking price…. The draft value chart is truly extortion.

If we could simply get teams to give up very very little to swap places- I promise they would…. There will be no less than 5 first round trades. Count on that.

The problem is we aren’t in “attainable range for NO, Seattle, Pitt, Dallas, Philly, Baltimore… right now?

Drop 2 spots for a 3rd Rd to jets. There is no way with their draft capital they don’t want to move to #2 for a 3rd…

Now at #4 there is no way the Seahawks don’t agree to move up for 1 of their seconds, if we send a late 3rd back. They want DB, LT, or QB and risk one of each at least being gone at #9. They exchange #40 for #97 to move up to #4……

So….

I still think #9 is heavy in play to the mid to late teens for a 2nd and a pick in 2023.

Pick in 2023….

So it’s basically

Lloyd
N Bonitto
P Winfrey
J Cook

Or

Thibz
97.

Because at 32 and 34 - we still pick Cine and Pickens say…

9

I sort of see the problem like this: if we don’t think there is much difference between (say) Hutchinson and Thibodeaux, then why would any other team right behind us?

For us, the extra 3rd round pick (to be super conservative) in this draft might be a starter. Would you rather have the lesser of Hutch or KT and a 3rd rounder who could start? Or your choice of KT/Hutch? But then again, the teams behind us are probably thinking the same thing.

1 Like
10

You’re hoping they clearly view one over the other driving the desire to get the one they want.

1 Like
11

Perceived value……

The Jets have been sitting there trying to figure out…

Hutch
Thibz
Neal

Neal
Hutch
Stingley

Walker
Hutch
Thibz

So if you are the Jets and quietly have decided on edge or CB…. They miss all 3 Edge guys? They miss CB1…. So they can lock in what they want.

Any edge works is why the bust rate is what it is.

The Lions have

C Harris- 7M (7.5 sacks)
R Okwara- 12M (10 sacks)
Decker- 20M (top 12 LT)
Sewell- 7M (top 2 rookie OT)

So does top grading a bit with Hutch/Thibz or Icky make sense?? Sure.

What say you den?? What if our guys determine Hutch to be Chris along at best and Thibz to be Dion Jordan 2.0- I’m not suggesting that is the case, but what if?

Many think the OTs are redundant, but what if they don’t see an All Pro edge?

12

I just don’t see the Lions having an opportunity to trade down from #2 but who knows. I also think you have to take into consideration the teams drafting at the top of the draft are slotted there for a reason….they suck. Going to a bad team also hurts your chances of succeeding in the NFL.

Lastly, I think the Lions last 2 picks at #2 were CJ and Suh so at least we got that going for us!!

13

We would if there was a CJ or Suh in this draft… The only that has a CHANCE is Thibodeaux

14

With the rookie salary cap in place, I think the Rich Hill model is closer to reality than the classic JJ chart.

15

Am I reading this wrong?

  • High draft picks have scary “bust” rates.
  • High draft picks are relatively expensive
  • “VERY VERY rarely do a single rookie draft pick make significant impact”

Then you give us a mock draft where 3 teams (NYJ, SEA, NO) all trade UP for picks in the top 10.

Why do those 3 teams specifically want to trade up in your mock scenario…if top 10 picks are so bad?

2 Likes
16

Great OP. I agree with all of it. I really don’t think we can trade down from 2OA but I’d really love to see it.

17

No you are not… Buying a luxury sedan is a bad idea 100% of the time. That 7 series BMW will drop in value from 115K down to about 92K the MOMENT you drive off the lot…

Yet if a dealership ran a special dropping the price to 99K- they would have a lot full of buyers because “IT COSTS LESS THAN IT’S SUPPOSED TO…”

That is what I am proposing. Right now the Jets can count on Hutch, Thibz, or Walker falling to them, one might, but NONE might…

The reason the Seahawks would make the move? Because LT and QB are their two biggest needs. We mock draft addicts pretend that “they can still get “A” C Ross at #9, why would they trade up…?” Well what if they can’t? What if Neal goes #1, Icky goes #5, and Cross goes #6?

You see we are looking at this draft through the lens of a team who has scouted EVERY SINGLE player, and we can have ANYONE we want but “1”…

The Seahawks are convincing themselves who they will be happy to take if…

Neal
Hutch
Thibz
Sauce
Walker
Cross
Icky
Willis…

What is that is the top 8? Now with all that draft capital who does Seattle get excited about?

Frankly- I got 2 lazy after the long OP post, but I would likely be considering trading up from #32 with some of the ammo we built up… why? I am not 100% sure I will like the S, WR, or DT options at #32…

I am less thrilled with edge early because I think we have 20 sacks already under contract at edge, and then another 5-8 sack guy sitting there in early 2 for us…

I hate our long term RB, SS, ILB, DT situations, and would love an edge, WR2, and TE2…

18

thanks brother…

I promise we can… I guarantee if we called NYG and offered to take #7 for merely a 4th this year and a 2nd next year they’d do it in a heartbeat… Promise!

Walker
Neal
Thibz
Hutch
Stingely
Icky

  • If that is top 6… maybe Willis goes and 1 of those even fall- I like #7 damn near at much as #2 only because OT and Edge are not huge needs, and the edge guys are all flawed to me…

So we take Sauce for a huge price discount vs #2, and we get a 2nd next year from a bad Giants team and a 4th (RB) sure…

HOWEVER- once we are #7- then comes some of the fun trade down stuff…

It’s there, it’s always there. Nobody wants to trade up HIGHER than they need to, and nobody wants to give ELITE capital back if they feel the capital they are getting isn’t ELITE- lets be clear…

Chase Young, Greg Robinson, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Saquon, none of those prospects were worth a KINGS RANSOM then, and in hindsight, they still are not…

Nobody wants to give up their 1st next year if they don’t have to… Nobody wants to give up their 2nd this year if they don’t have to? How about moving down 3-4 spots and adding a 4th this year, and 2nd next year, and then on the second trade, letting a team move up for #16-19 and give up a 2nd?

it’s there

19

all in a few hours…

  1. Fant wants a new contract to play LT for the Jets- if he does, then the Jets have both he and Beckton at OT… kind of takes OT off the board…

  2. Giants shopping #7 pick actively- weird teams are calling trying to move up and the Giants move obviously have “2” picks in the blue chip world (if you want to call it that) so they are an easy target.

  3. The Jaguars just inked Cam to a 3 year 54M extension, and pumped up Walker Little… Either this solidifies them as out on OT, or solidifies Cam as the long term RT and maybe it is Neal or Icky- gotta get more tea leaves…

20

The top 3 Rams receiving targets were Rams draft picks.

The top 4 Rams tacklers were Rams draft picks or UDFA signed by Rams.

5 starting linemen were all Rams draft picks.

It’s a fallacy that the Rams don’t concern themselves with draft picks. The reality is that they built a REALLY good team through the draft and then used free agency and trades to fill in the holes.

1 Like