On trading up

The Den
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Most of us don’t want to trade up, but we all know how Brad is. If he falls in love with a guy, he’ll move. We just have to live with it. We don’t have a ton of capital, so it will require the guy/s we love falling within range, but I think that’s possible in this draft. For us I think there are 5 guys we might consider doing it for: Bain, Mauigoa, Freeling, Styles and Downs.

Rueben Bain (see next post, got a little long on me):

Francis Mauigoa:

Why we would love him: He’s a Sewell-lite solution at RT. I actually think he has all-pro potential at guard - like in that Quenton Nelson/Zack Martin tier - but unlike guys like Kadyn Proctor or Gennings Dunker, I think he will also be a good tackle in the league. Along the lines of Darnell Wright or Taliese Fuaga. And good tackle > elite guard in the NFL.

Why I think he might fall: Some teams will have him as guard only. As a tackle prospect he’s almost certainly RT only (so probably not a fit for Cleveland, for instance), and will probably be seen as more of a floor pick. Sometimes teams opt for the ceiling picks.

Monroe Freeling:

Why we would love him: Already discussed ad nauseam. See the post on offensive tackles I put out a couple of months back, or all of the discussion about him elsewhere.

Why I think he might fall: He doesn’t have top 20 tape. You’re betting on what he could be, not what he is. Likely a pure LT, and most teams after Cleveland don’t have pure LT needs. Could get caught in a numbers crunch.

Sonny Styles:

Why we would love him: Would be a MIKE for most teams, but he’s the perfect prospect for the way we currently use our WILL. We want that spot to be able to hold up against the run, basically think of it as a MIKE with coverage chops (like Anzalone). Well there’s never been a more prototypical guy for us than Styles. He’s also my #2 overall prospect, so I just think he’s a stud.

Why I think he might fall: For other teams, he’d be a MIKE, and the league has already told us what they think of drafting off-ball LBs highly. They almost never go top 5 and very few go top ten. How far would he have to fall before he becomes interesting for us?

Caleb Downs:

Why we would love him: Every team will love him, he’s a force multiplier on any defense, and our safety room has suddenly become an issue.

Why I think he could fall: Just like LB, the league consistently tells us what they think of safeties, especially of late. They always fall. Non-freak athletes fall a lot, like Branch, and Downs isn’t a freak athlete. There were also rumors of medical red flags coming out of the combine.

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Rueben Bain:

I wanted to do a separate post for Bain, despite the fact that I think he might be our top option, because it got a little wordy.

Why we would love him: Besides the fact that he plays a position of need the way we want to play it, I wanted to quote what my favorite podcaster had to say about him:

“One of the things I love about him the most, I think he is so intelligent, it’s like scary for someone as good as he is to be as intelligent as he is already. His feel in the pressure game is unlike anyone else the past couple of seasons in terms of sticking to the plan, knowing where he’s supposed to be in relation to everyone else that’s happening. So they’ll send a whole bunch of slot pressures at Miami, a whole bunch of late arriving nickel safety comes down. Does he take the vertical step? Does he take that initial vertical burst, and does he hit it at the exact right point, you’ll see it all the time with these (Miami) guys, it’s freaky. And whoever is designing the rush plan there is so dialed in and so good. They’re (the offense) scared of Rueben, they’re scared because he’s a pocket rocket, he might knock us back into the backfield. Tackle is waiting on the power rush. He’s going to take the vertical step, and at the exact right time he’s going to slice right into the path of the guard, and he’s going to get 2 for 1, and it is uncanny how many times they get a free runner off of his outside shoulder and it’s boom, boom, right as he hits the double, the guy (nickel blitzer) is right on his hip flying past him. And it’s so well sequenced between both of them. But his coachability, his understanding that it’s this exact foot at this exact time and then it’s all my might into the double. Because they have to really believe that I can penetrate this thing and rip, and here comes Scott off the edge. Here comes Thomas off the edge. Here comes the linebacker off the edge. Like, that is pro football. That is productive play from the edge defender that looks like it’s killed on contact, because he’s not hitting the thing every single time, he’s not knocking guys back every time. It’s a double team (sic) for the cause.”

It’s not just the tenacity or the numbers, it’s the football intelligence, that FBI our FO is always talking about, and that probably goes underdiscussed in here. It’s but one of the reasons I think Bain my be damn near the #1 player on our board.

Why I think he might fall: The short arms make him an extreme outlier, and we all know GMs are chickenshit. Brugler has said multiple times on his pod some of them have a 2nd round grade on Bain, which to me is batshit crazy, but I don’t think he’s one of these all-time prospects like Hutch, Bosa, etc… either. But for us he’d be perfect for the reasons listed above.

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I want too !

Great list of targets.

If we stand pat at 17 it’s likely next best available OT or Mesidor/Faulk

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Mesidor is rumored to have the worst medicals in the class, and he turns 25 in a month. I would be really, really surprised if he was the pick (I also think his game is too finesse for us). Faulk, yeah, he’ll be an option, though it’s not my preference.

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Mesidor is 25, probably the most ready now guy. 1 contract he will be 30 by time his 5th year option.

If our goal is that, then he’s a great choice.

Can’t pay everyone 2nd contracts 30 mil per year anyways

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That’s presuming he’ll “hit the ground running,” but just cause he’s older doesn’t mean he’s any more likely to do that, despite how it seems. It’s like Latu vs. Chop… the latter was supposed to take time, the former was supposed to hit right away, but the opposite happened. This is especially true when you realize Mesidor was just fine most of his career until he was A LOT older than the guys he was going up against and playing on a stacked line where he couldn’t be double-teamed.

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Well this and Jason Taylor

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The question is then, “Which teams would also prioritize getting Bain?” Or rather, how would the draft have to go for us to consider going up for Bain? Or indeed, how might the draft have to go for Bain to fall into our laps?

I could see the Jets going Bailey or Reese at #2. Cards and Browns take tackles at #3 and #6. Titans go Love at #4. Giants take Styles at #5. Commies go Downs at #7.

Saints are tough. I think they’d go Bain over a wide receiver. I think they’re the betting favorites at this point. But they also could use more picks. What would it take to trade up to 8?

Alternatively, let’s say the Saints go Tate (a target for Shough) and the Chiefs like Faulk’s size. Bengals take Delane, Dolphins go Lemon to replace Waddle, the Cowboys like Reese, and suddenly we only need to trade up with Rams at 13.

Or maybe the Rams go Sadiq at 13. Trade with the Ravens at 14 (say they want Ioane and know he’ll still be available) in order to cut off Tampa and the Jets at the pass.

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Honestly with the current state of our roster, with our offensive line really dropping off, not having a passrush, and our defensive backfield injuries / question marks.. I think trading up at all would be a bad idea. I would lose it if we used multiple picks on another off-ball linebacker or safety. Moving up for an edge or LT would make sense, but in this draft I just don’t think there is the guy you go get.

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Oh I agree completely, mentioned that in the first paragraph.

But this is less about what we would like to do, and more about what we might actually be dealing with come draft day.

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Personally I think the Chiefs are Bain’s floor, and that’s mostly because they’ve already shown they don’t care as much about arm length for an edge (Gillote, Karlaftis, etc…). What you’re looking for is proof of concept. Have they done it before? Have they shied away from it?

Additionally, you have to listen to the FOs. Dan Quinn came out and said early in the off-season that they were looking to get longer. This was unprompted and well before smoke season, so I believe him. It’s all about eliminating landing spots when trying to find out where they’ll end up.

Our 1st and 2nd round picks is pretty much a perfect value fit on the Rich Hill trade chart for the Saints #8 picks. So if we wanted to move up ahead of the Chiefs, that’s what I think it would cost. I wouldn’t love it, but once Bain was wreaking havoc I also wouldn’t care. But I really don’t want to touch 2027 picks.

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That’s what I’m afraid of most tbh, Brad moving picks from 2027 to get a player in this draft.

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You keep hearing whispers that a lot of trades haven’t come to fruition because no one wants to give up 2027 picks. Hopefully we’re one of them.

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I am entirely for trusting your evaluations and nobody can say Brad doesnt do that… with that said i do prefer to stock pile picks considering that the hit rate in the nfl isnt typically great so more darts the better.

Regardless of what Brad decides to do i just hope that they have the evaluation of the player correct and we dont end up arguing about another bromart/hooker/manu etc

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As a draft guy I am of that philosophy myself. But we know Brad isn’t, and honestly conviction in your own evaluations is one of the best qualities a GM can have imo. I want him to believe in his guys through and through, even when he turns out to be wrong.

And it’s not like you can’t be successful this way. The Rams like to give up picks for players or to move around the board. Apparently the package they offered the Raiders to move up for Bowers was pretty staggering, and they also tried to move up for Tet, and did move up for Fiske. Of course they’ve traded down as well (though I’m 99% sure any team would have taken that sweetheart deal from Atlanta last year, but still). They identify the guys they want and they go get them. It’s no surprise that’s where Brad cut his teeth.

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I support trading up. A lot of people want Brad to go all in. Big FA or big trade. The problem is money when we still need to sign our own guys. I say go for it all in the draft. Like how the Texas draft Stroud then traded back up for Will Anderson. Get your guy in the 1st and trade back into the 1st. Get your stud DE and OT.

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YES! This!

We all know BH is unpredictable as you mentioned. Especially if he’s locked on a guy and has determined the value they are willing to pay for him. He’s hasn’t been a guy who will overpay though.

I love this guy Bain, if he’s available at 7-8-9 I would love to see BH make a move. I know BH hasn’t overpaid in the past so can a trade be made for the Lions first this year and next years second or would it take a first next year? I’d definitely do it for the 2nd and probably even a first if the second wasn’t enough.

He and Hutch would terrify nfl teams for a decade.

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I really hope we don’t have to dip into any 2027 picks, next year’s class, at this juncture, is an all-timer. It will probably lose some of its luster over the next year, but it will still be one of the best we’ve seen this century, especially at the top. For as much as the guys at the top of this class are exciting, if we could throw in the guys from next year’s class, most of them would fall down into the 20s (including Bain). So we don’t want to miss out on it.

Our first and second rounder this year would get us to about 8. So he would have to fall to that range to make it viable without dipping into 2027, which again I hope we would avoid.

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I’d feel better about trading up if we had a 3rd rounder. But trading up will most likely cost us 17 and 50. So then we wouldn’t pick again until round 4. That’s tough for filling some of these roster holes.

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Yeah, completely agree. But this isn’t about the wisdom of trading up, it’s about explaining who it would be for if he does.

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