OTC article examining offseason gains and losses

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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Great finds sir! Also great original post Dead!

This is what I e been saying all offseason. Teams like Denver and Cleveland went “all in” with shitty hands in my opinion. Yes they are better than us, but are they Chiefs or Rams good? Not close.

This OTC article embodies what many of us have been saying… addition by subtraction was the plan last year, and it worked…

We finished the year 3-3, and while 3-13-1 is simply bad… we did face-

  1. Helluva schedule
  2. New schemes, leadership
  3. Loss of Face if the Franchise
  4. League leading (or close) injuries
  5. 58MM in dead cap restriction
  6. Crazy covid bad luck
  7. No cap room to add players
  8. Complete culture overhaul
  9. Righting a wrong hire at OC
  10. Starting a crazy number of UDFA to fill holes

That is a freaking mountain, and by week 11-12 we looked like a team that belonged on the fields almost every week… we did that missing Goff, AO, Swift, Rags, Romeo, Okudah and Hock for many of those games! That is literally 1/3 of our starters missing at least 3 games the 2nd half of the season.

A) C Harris was a great FA contract. He wants to be here, fits the elephant backer role, is a really nice Edge 3 in rotation and in case of injury.

B) M Williams was amazing in NO, but he also had the front 7 making his life much easier. Glenn has coached both he and Walker, and they clearly felt there wasn’t enough disparity to justify double the contract. That, or Williams flat out wouldn’t come here period, and that isn’t on Holmes after one year.

C) Chark is s more dynamic player, and with more upside than Kirk, and most any other available WR. We stole him! He wants to be here, and he wants to get paid next offseason. Could easily be a 1,000 yard FA find- excellent move.

D) we kept all the OL depth that allowed us to function through all the injuries. I was more worried about keeping our OL room than anything else.

Goff will either win 8-9 games with us this year, or he won’t. If he sucks, or gets injured, we win 3-4 games and are in position to go QB top 3 next year.

If we win 8-9 games in year 2, and without spending like idiots in FA, then next offseason could easily position us for a 3-5 year run.

Draft-

  1. Hutch or Thibz
  2. D Wyatt
  3. B Hall
  4. C Muma
  5. D Bell

I would be all over that draft. Our starting RB can’t stay healthy, and has yet to break 800 yards rushing in 2 years. I like the kid, but he looks more Kerryon than J Taylor.

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42

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass.

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43

The Lions lost starters at CB, edge, OT, and WR.
Those are pretty important positions.

Heck… even at QB. Goff missed 3 games and played severely limited in 2 more.

Also… if you had named the top “foundation” type of players for the Lions prior to 2021… Hock, Ragnow, Decker, and Okwara would have been in the top of the list.

Can’t see what angle you are trying to take here…

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You know, instead of saying there was no metric by which I could be right, he could have simply conceded that it was one he hadn’t considered and then possibly posted the kind of metric’s he considered to be applicable. Instead, he chose to double down and proceed to tell me what I would do in the future in some kind of weird scenario of a game between the Lions and Pack where I would equate the loss of a long snapper and OG to losing AR. On the face that’s a personal attack on my intelligence and a confirmation of his willingness to lie and to try and cover up his “toxic masculinity”.

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Analytics viewed as witchcraft?
You’re full of shit and full of yourself

I think most if not all are in wait and see mode on Okudah and Okwara
More BS on your part

You seem to be making the classic mistake of thinking those around you are intellectual midgets.

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You are not right, you continue to double down on your ignorance.

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Luke- help me out here…

—-Decker, T Williams, Okudah- so our LT, WR1, and CB1 were either out or gone for season by the end of this game…. THAT IS 14% OF OUR STARTERS GONE ONE GAME IN…

Week 1 - started out really bad, but had a heck of a comeback in the 2nd half against a team that was a few plays from a SB…

Week 2- we were leading the Packers at halftime, who were again a top 4-5 team in the league.

—- At this point Collins lack of effort and commitment was clear, and DC had no choice but to cut out the cancer. Even though it was self inflicted, it wasn’t by Holmes and DC choice that he was here occupying 10M plus in cap space. ANOTHER STARTER GONE FOR THE YEAR…. We also lost Iffy this week for 9 games….

Week 3- A RECORD FG WAS MADE AFTER A BLATANT PENALTY WAS MISSED- otherwise we beat the Ravens period.

Week 4- we came out flat and sucked vs the Bears- IN THIS GAME WE LOST OKWARA DE1 AND RAGNOW -C WITH 2 PLAYS OF EACH OTHER IN THE FIRST QUARTER!!! FOR THE YEAR!

Week 5- we again lost on a pretty amazing pair of 54 and 55 yard FGs by a rookie kicker…. WE STARTED THIS GAME WITHOUT… LT, C, WR1, CB2, DE1, LB1, CB1… WHICH IS 33% OF THEIR STARTERS, and in the first quarter they lost WR2 Cephus to a season ending injury. Now we are DOWN 37% of our starters, and all but Decker and Iffy were for the year!!!

I would say being down 1/3 of your starters for the YEAR by the end of week 5 is a pretty big anomaly…

We also played the Bengals, Rams, 49ers, Packers in those first 8 games when we couldn’t find a win.

Just about the time Sewell moved back to RT, Decker resumed LT, ASB starting getting a feel for the offense and NFL, and we signed a “functional” WR in Reynolds… we started looking like a team… sort of

In that second half of the season, with most of our OL, and with two competent WR options, and with a better offense being called, we started competing and winning a few games.

2nd half of season tally-

Hock- 5
Swift- 4
J Williams- 4
Goff- 3
J Jacobs- 3
AO- 3
Jackson- 2
T Walker- 2
Big V- 2
J Reynolds- 1
Sewell- 1

That’s a lot of games…. Yes we played better despite the injuries the second half. The schedule more more forgiving, we didn’t get jobbed like we did vs Ravens, and the other guys started stepping up.

E Brown, Nelson, Kraemer, ASB, Netflix, Parker, Jacobs, McNeill, Julian Okwara, C Harris, Walker all stepped up abs were playing pretty damn good ball by year end.

These guys weren’t really expected to be impact
Players here in week 1…. Aside from McNeill.

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48

Wow → This was a fantastic post. Super-clear, and exactly why I think we win 10 games next season.

Can’t wait to see how it pans out.

Also, thanks for taking the Time to do this.

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You know, he trots out words like “analytics”, and “cherry picking”, and phrases like “no metric by which I could be right”, and then proceeds to contradict everything with opinion, not facts and certainly not analytics. He is using these words like he owns them, and provides nothing that supports his opinion in return.

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50

The Packers lost their All-Pro LT, their all-pro CB, and their top pass rusher last season. Bakh didn’t play until the playoffs. Then their pro bowl Guard who replaced him tore his ACL. Z. Smith played like 1 game. Jaire Alexander was gone for the season after 4 weeks.

I know they’re not the Lions, but they went 13-4. Injuries as an excuse is pretty lame if you ask me. I would argue, with these three injuries, the Packers lost far more than the Lions ever did. Okudah is not an all-pro CB. Decker is not Bakh. Z. Smith is a better pass rusher than anyone on the Lions.

So yes, maybe the Lions lost the most games to injury, but they sure as hell didn’t lose the most talent to injury. The team really wasn’t all that talented to begin with.

*Edit - Both Z. Smith and J. Alexander were Second Team All-Pro.

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51

Thanks brother!!!

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52

Tyrell Williams has played in less than 1 game in 2 years. Are we acting like this was some massive loss for the Lions? :rofl:

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Luke does make a good point too. For all we know, Okudah and Okwara could be done after the Achilles injuries. We really won’t know until the 2022 season, but I sure as heck won’t be 100% banking on their return improving the team.

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He took 2020 off like many others did. There needs to be some perspective there. Considering the construction of our receiving corps i would say yes that was a pretty big loss from the get go to start the 2021 season.

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55

Losing Okudah for 16 games, Iffy for 9, Parker for 4, Jacobs and AO for 3 each is FAR more impactful than the Packers losing Alexander.

Losing Bakt was a big loss, but so was 8 games from Decker and 14 from Ragnow??? They were our top 2 OL players? Not to mention the games lost by Sewell, Big V and Jackson.

Losing Z Smith was big…. But given they had Preston Smith and recent 1st rounder R Gary to fill in as starters for 16 games… again I’d say losing Romeo for 14 and Trey for 10 was definitely more impactful. Thankfully we were able to get solid seasons from some unlikely sources…. Suck as 12 plus sacks between C Harris and Bryant.

The Pack were obviously a far better and deeper team to start with. Returning coaching staff, scheme, hall of fame QB…

We lost both starting edges, both starting CBS, our top 2 WRs, our pro bowl TE, our best 2 OL players, our QB, our RB, our MLB all for at least 3 weeks. That’s literally have the damn lineup missing significant time.

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Shhhh… Some people here may label you as upset, depressed or numb for listing all these facts.

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57

Agree. They were likely expecting more from him than what we actually got from Reynolds.

Having had T Williams, Reynolds, ASB, Decker, Ragnow, Swift, and Hock all playing 15 games and this team looks different I promise.

I don’t expect Romeo or Okudah to make huge impacts. I expect both to be functional by week 8…

I expect Iffy and AO to be better than what we had last season. I expect Hughes, Parker, Okudah and Jacobs to combine for great depth. Every one of these guys has shown something, and all are basically playing for their nfl future. Only Okudah has made a significant contract.

I expect Thinz/Hutch and C Harris to be FAR better than what we had most of last year. Then Romeo and Julian for depth!!!

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I didn’t list all of their injuries. Just the really big ones. They had a ton of injuries, just like the Lions.

Their starting OL never once played in a game together last year.

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I would argue his injury led to the emergence of ASB. Would we know what we have in him if we had Williams eating up snaps? Maybe we would, but I’m trying to look at it from all angles.

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He’s one of the few that actually knew the playbook. LOL. As tough as it is to imagine downgrading from him…

He had a few good points, for sure.
That said, those videos of El Jeffe doing drills post op looked pretty damn strong and nimble. I think he’s gonna do well. I think he’s got a massive chip on his shoulder.

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