Oh he was a catastrophe for the Jets as well, not so much for his play (though it was majorly overblown due to his abilities as a pass rusher) as his shitty attitude. They got insanely lucky to bilk the Seahawks into that deal. I think it’s one of the worst trades in history, and I said as much at the time.
I’m fine with BPA, in fact it’s the way I prefer things. It’s just that in my prospect grades, I factor in positional value. It’s why I have Willis ranked above guys like Brisker, Zion Johnson and Devin Lloyd. I think the latter guys have more of a chance of being NFL successes, but nothing beats hitting on a QB and I factor that into my grade. You don’t care about money or position value and that’s fine, your prerogative. There’s more than one way to build a roster. I just prefer the method that when you miss on evaluations - and everyone does, all the time - it hurts you the least.
It’s not about being scared by spending, I’m fine with being over the cap every year. It’s about allocating those resources appropriately. Otherwise you end up more like the Giants and Vikings (12M and 16M over the cap, respectively) than the Rams ($21M over). And what position did the Rams hammer in trade/FA? CB (Ramsey), WR (ODB), QB (Stafford), DE (Von Miller). Their spending reflects the reality of value. They went cheap on RB (Michel), LB, S (Weddle off the street), iOL. Conversely the Giants and Vikings blew their cap on guys like Saquon and Harrison Smith, who are (or were) both great players but roster albatrosses.
@Doctor_Love I should probably add that unlike the Stafford years where I was certain we had a franchise QB, I’m not nearly as confident in Goff. When I see QB listed as a need, I can understand it appearing there.
Right now there are conversations here in the Den about trading Goff for more than a 1st and a 3rd. My expectation is that by the end of the 2022 season, those valuations will be significantly reset.
I’d love to be wrong about that. It would be nice to possess again a confidence in the QB position that I had the previous 12 years. I’m anxious for the draft for no other reason than to see what the team’s confidence level is in QB.
I was thinking safeties were less valuable than ever, due to the NFL cleaning up dirty hits. Safety used to be a prime position for dirty hits since you’re not playing man to man coverage. Mark Carrier used to play dirty for us.
I know stats aren’t even close to the only thing that matters… but I am not sure how Hamilton gets compared to Polamalu when he didn’t actually make many game changing plays.
Hamilton had 8 INTs in 31 games… not bad.
But… zero sacks. zero forced fumbles. zero fumbles recovered. 1 TD.
Polamalu?
6 INTs
7 sacks.
7 forced fumbles.
4 blocked punts.
3 TDs.
And twice as many tackles made as Hamilton.
Those might be “stats”… but those kind of impact plays stand out on film too.
I will defend the importance of the safety position until I am blue in the face. The most important position is QB. One of the first thing a QB looks at when he lines up at the line of scrimmage is the safety. One of the first things a QB looks at when he snaps the ball, is where the safety goes. One of the main players the QB is trying to “look off” or otherwise trick with his body positioning is the safety. And one of the last players the QB checks before making a throw downfield is the safety. Safety is one of the most important positions on the field, not just defense.
That being said, the way NFL teams value safety play is different. So you can get good safeties without having to pay a premium price. If you took the bottom 5 positions in terms of “value” for an NFL team and willingness to pay a premium price, we have hit all of them in the 1st round. We have done tight end, center, guard, middle linebacker, right tackle and even managed to squeeze in one of the highest picked cornerbacks in NFL history. Coming back with another position that teams do not pick in the 1st round, much less in the top 5 of the 1st round, seems very Lionesque.
I know safety’s are rarely drafted round one, I’m just saying by analytics safety’s have become more important than ever before. Can’t just stick a couple dudes back there anymore.
You didn’t. I’m not either. I am on record multiple times here calling Hutch the best player in the draft.
And also, if he is the best player in the draft, he could easily be wearing teal and black next season.
What you said is this about safeties…
You did not say anything about ‘if we took a DE, then he also better be HOF caliber’. I think Hutch could be, sure, but I think Hamilton probably is more likely.
I’d bet a lot of money that at least 2 hall of famers come from this draft. Given that we have the second overall pick, we have a shot at one of them. We don’t know who it is or what position he plays, so it’s up to Brad Holmes and co to identify that guy and take him.
I really could care less who we draft and where so long as the pick ends up good.
No, the Lions took Ebron over Donald because Donald was “too short”. Still that drives me insane. They didn’t think they needed OBJ somce they had Megatron and Tate. On paper, TE was one of the biggest holes on the roster outside of O line.
I still can’t believe they were that close though.
My problem is I don’t see any -must-have, super great QB’s in this draft that just completely scream “better than Goff.”
I think we can get a TOP Safety in later rounds -if not free agency. I want a pass rusher that flat puts a QB on his ass often. we’ll have the ball back if we can shut down our opponents play by dealing them 3 and outs with regularity. my vote is for a pass rusher like Hutch.
An elite safety can help the pass rush just saying. If Hamilton is higher on your board then the DE’s then you have to take him. And he is number 1 on many people’s board’s regardless of position. And coming back at 32 and 34 can fix the DE position. It’s not about filling need it’s about getting the BPA….we are talentless at many positions……BPA and a position of need happens to line up……
I can’t think of one hybrid who’s came out that’s even in the consideration.
Probowl … yes.
That’s a pretty hefty claim. Most drafts have one. (Some dont) Rarely do they have two or more. Most would agree that this draft lacks the top shelf talent of most drafts. So to assume those draft would out perform the norm is unlikely. So there’s a good chance you’d lose that bet.
However if one does come out of this draft. My money is on it being a WR.
So you’d be ok taking a Kicker at 2OA as long as he’s good?
That pick was surrounded by pro bowlers. Had they adopted the policy that most NFL teams do. Especially ones with good GM then they wouldn’t have had a that high on their board.
Like I said at the beginning of this. Positional value is real. Most teams follow that concept. Some don’t and the Lions are one of those teams. It’s bit us in the ass almost every time.
Because it’s bad positional value. Teams don’t do it for that very reason.
Many teams feel the same way about TE, S an OG they won’t touch them in round one. They may have a higher positional value than a Kicker but a far lower value than a QB, OT or DE.
I think the position thing gets over blown, IF you need a safety and he’s rated that high you take him, you don’t pass on a player that’s helps your roster for a player that doesn’t so you can get position value. In the end it doesn’t matter were a player is taken only how he preforms. The team that wins is the guy that puts the best roster on the field. Leaving holes in your roster to get position value doesn’t help you either. And is a fault of many teams IMO.
And there a hudge difference between a kicker and a safety. That’s was just silly. The thing with this debate is there is going to be the safety and a pass rusher. And we need both then you might look at the best value.
But a kicker doesn’t play either offense or defense. There’s a massive difference between that and playing one. Kickers usually don’t even get drafted.
I think it’s wrong to say teams feel the same way about kickers as tight ends or safeties. A tight end just went 4OA for crying out loud, and you’re saying teams have the same attitude towards them as kickers?
A kicker isn’t just “bad positional value”, it’s downright atrocious decision making according to literally everything ever.
