Path to the #1 Seed in the NFC

The Den
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So Thanksgiving weekend marks the real home stretch for the NFL.

I think we all agree that the Lions NEED to get the #1 seed to have the best shot to make The Super Bowl.

So what will it take?
Well, obviously have the best record in the NFC. But what about tie breakers?
The 4 main tie breakers
1 Head to Head.
2 Conference Record
3 Common Games
4 Strength Of Victory

It looks like there are only 3 teams that are true contenders aside from the Lions.

1 PHI
2 GB
3 MIN

So heres the current standings including tie breakers

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So as you can see there is no real wiggle room. 6 games left and the magic number to lock the 1 seed is 6.

Here is the remaining schedule for those 4teams

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I included the Strength of Schedule Remaining at the bottom.
1 Traditional SOSR based on record
2 Based on the average DVOA of remaining teams
3 The point system I use for power rankings.

DET, PHI, and GB all have a similar SOSR middle of the pack. MIN has a very tough SOSR.

The Lions are in the drivers seat however. Just worry about yourself. Get better every week. Handle your business and get that bye and home field advantage!

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Commanders are 7-5 where you getting 9-3?

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Jesus. My spreadsheet messed up. Ill fix and repost. Fixed.

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The Lions need 5 victories to clinch the #1 seed, as long as we don’t lose to GB.

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I don’t want the #1 seed.

we lost at home.

we’re undefeated on the road.

checkmate.

chess GIF

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I’m sort of glad the pressure is still on …

It just more for Dan to use to motivate the team to focus on the Bears only and to win it!!

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A couple of years ago, when the Lions were 1-6, we were talking about the path to the No. 1 pick.

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win, don’t lose

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Agree. As long as the Vikings and Packers are nipping at the Lions heel, they will continue to keep their foot on the gas pedal.

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Exactly my response when the IRS audits me.

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6-0 = #1 seed
5-1 = only loss to Buffalo = #1 seed

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Win 5 more and that should wrap it up.

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Still impressive we are doing this with a record 15 people on IR

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Lions - looking only at thier games left - must still win out to clinch the top seed. And must win at least five to clinch the division…

If the vikes and lions both win out going into the last games of the season, it would be for both the division title, and top seed as well!! :scream::stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye::innocent::boom::pray:

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Five wins will clinch #1 seed as well. We can lose 1 and still clinch. Losing 1 puts us at same record as Minnesota and we would have common opponent over them (Rams). Philly won’t win tiebreaker in that case either. Only caveat is the 1 loss CANNOT be to GB. If we lose to GB as our only loss, and Philly wins out, they’re the number 1 seed.

With that said, all of the top teams are likely to drop a game or two. It’s a long season so these logistics will change depending on who loses to who. 14-3 is likely needed to clinch. 15-2 is highly unlikely for both the Eagles and Vikings.

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ah…um, if we win, it actually means we did not lose
Snoopy GIF

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Forgive me, i am not well versed on tie breakers. If the vikings and lions both win out, would the last game not matter? If the lions lost, we would have a tied record with Min. We would win the tiebreaker in that scenario, correct?

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Lions will have the 1 seed locked up before the Vikings game.

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Not 100% sure, but I think the fact that they lost to the Rams while we beat them (common games) would give us the nod.

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Great post! Great editing and creative skills!

Here is my take: not that anyone cares…

Remember the criticism of Davenport being a “solution” in FA?
Remember the criticism of Brad going off script on- Hooker, BroMart, Manu, Vaki… etc?

Brad and Dan have 1000000000% done far more good than bad. So what if we accidentally blew a few calls vs the Bucs? So what if we missed on a few solid contributors for 2024 by taking a swing at some huge upside type picks?

I am having the time of my football life this season. If you all could see the rituals that go into “Defending the Den”- you’d all laugh, and possibly be jealous- we have 6-20 people wearing identical clothing (including hats) every week, we make awesome multi course meals, and we have a 120" screen and two big TVs rocking while we open and enjoy hard to find bourbons, beers (water and wine mostly for wives and kiddos)… Early in the year we bit our nails (Rams game)… we dropped down and did 10-50 push ups to celebrate TD’s, or as sacrafices as we pled for 3 and outs, and missed FGs for our opponents. The Houston game left us with sore torsos and bad hangovers, but 4 the rest of the games?

C’mon ya’ll… Since week 2 we have won 9 straight games, and 7 have been by a TD or more… FWIW- 4 of them have been by 18 points or more… CRAZY!!!

So what’s my point?

-Jalen Hurts has been a problem for the majority of the last 4 years… This will be his 3rd straight year over 4,300 total yards and 35 total TDs-
-S Barkley is on pace to challenge the rush record, total scrimmage yards record, and come close to 20 TDs!
-AJ Brown and Devonta- they’ve missed a few games, but are still on pace for combine for over 2,000 receiving yards and 12-13 TDS…
-Arguably the best OL in football… they are far better in pass blocking rating and Saquon is leading the league in yards before contact…Let’s call this a tie-

  • D Goedert has similar levels of production to Laporta

Jalen Carter
Jordan Davis
Nolan Smith
J Sweat
Nakobe Dean
Milton Williams
R Blankenship
Q Mitchell
C Dejean

  • they have drafted some absolute studs on defense…

D Slay
Ceedy
B Huff
Z Baun

they have gotten some great value on trades and FA deals of late too-

This takes nothing away from Detroit, and what Dan and Brad have done and are doing… there just aren’t a lot of places that the Eagles have decided to let guys off the street start games, and that is part of why they look so dominant.

Even the Jahan Dotson trade didn’t work, but they took a shot at a cheap play for 1st round pick as WR3…

If we win out- we will get the #1 seed… If we lose 1 more game- we will get the #1 seed… There is a very logical reason that many fear the Eagles, Bills, and maybe even the Chiefs… We have too many not legit NFL players on the field each week to expect this dominant run to continue. It very well could continue, this could be the team of destiny we all deserve…

Philly doesn’t have much depth- let’s see if they stay lucky and healthy?

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