Figured it could be fun to track this each passing week. I’ve messed around with this a few times and can’t shake this result …
Yes, it’s my nightmare scenario.
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I picked the lions to win the last 3 and simulated the rest of the games. It has SF losing to Balt next week and the Rams week 18…we all would be ecstatic with this
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Why is Philly 12-4 in the lower frame? They only play 16 games?
Fun simulator -
Tough path to #1 seed for Lions
Remaining games:
Lions - @MIN, @DAL, MIN
Eagles - @SEA, NYG, ARI, @NYG
49ers - BAL, @WAS, LAR
Everyone wins out, final seeding:
- 49ers
- Eagles
- Lions
Lions path to #2 seed:
Lions & 49ers win out
Eagles lose to SEA (@SEA tomorrow night is HUGE!!) Eagles finish 3-1 with a loss to the Giants or Cardinals… Lions still would get the #3 seed. SEATTLE or BUST!!!
- 49ers
- Lions
- Eagles
Lions path to #1 seed:
49ers lose 2 of 3 (Ravens and Rams?)
Eagles lose to SEA
We need the Seahawks to put a whooping on the Eagles on MNF.
We need Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to go on the road and beat the 49ers next Monday night.
We need Matthew Stafford to go into SF in week 18 and beat the 49ers.
…and we need the Lions finishing with 3 straight wins (including a prime time game @DAL)
It’s going to be the Rams.
First branch that need to fall our way is Philly upset imho….
Next week we win and everyone else loses and or ties! 
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If this happens, and he wins… my heart might break permanently on this team and I’m not even sure I could recover.
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It’s almost impossible for the Lions not to get in. I’m not sure what that scenario is even. I tried to make it so the Lions didn’t get in and couldn’t seem to make it happen.
But it seems best if the Lions split with Min which I think is possible if we sit a lot of players that last game.
But losing out could look like this too.
I tried the same thing with the ESPN simulator and couldn’t find a scenario where if the Vikings lose one game, the Lions don’t end up as the three seed. If one assumes even the absolute worse case scenario, the Lions end up no worse than the 7th seed.
The 7th seed is all I could come up with as the worst case scenario.
So what scenario is it that the Lions don’t get in?…. Anyone?
Ahhh I figured it out.
Sea has to win tonight and Lions lose out. If PHI beats SEA then there’s no scenario where the Lions don’t get in.
Thursday Night Football this week is a huge game we need the saints to beat the Rams!!! We need these NFC south teams in!!!
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We lose out. Minny, Seattle and LA win out.
I ran the simulator a bunch this morning, using several combinations. I did it manually because leaving as-is has absurd results.
This is what I came up with …
Most likely scenario: Rams at Lions
Second most likely: Vikings at Lions
Third most likely: Packers at Lions
Unlikely but prayerful: Seahawks at Lions as 2 seed
OMG please: Lions as 1 seed (would require SF loses to Baltimore AND Rams)
I used to like the thought of the playoffs until it involved Stafford returning home to face his old team in his old house.
Also pits Goff against McVay and his old squad.
There will be a ton of storylines and that game scares me the most!
Stafford would go from loved to hated in Detroit if he knocked the Lions out of the playoffs. We would hold onto fond memories of him still if we curb stomped them.
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That must be why the NYT playoff predictor had the Lions at 99+%, but not 100%.
Sorry, didn’t read the rest of the thread before replying. Yes, you guys are correct.