So there are a handful of Lions that could get THE BAG next offseason (like sewell, St and Goff did this year)
Obviously the lions wont extend them all. So they will have holes to fill for sure.
BUT, they drafted Manu to hopefully replace Decker
They have Campbell to replace Barns.
And drafted Wingo to hopefully replace McNeil.
Well see what happens. But if you want the lions to extend these guys, those are the realistic numbers to consider.
Decker should be upper teens, unless he gives the Lions one hell of a discount.
I think you’re right on Hutch and way too high on everyone else.
I was just looking around the league at other older vets that signed a 1-2 cheap extension. Almost every single one was 5-10m.
The only ones that get 15M+ is the ones that sign a 4+ year deal. Which i cant see happening. So maybe low teens at the most.
Everyone else as i said. Doesn’t matter how good they are. It’s all market value.
Supply and demand.
And if you are paying one of the players to be a starter that means you think they are top 15 in the nfl. And top 15 players get top 5 money. Its just that simple
I like a good write up, regardless of if I agree with it or not. So thank you for drawing it all up with your reasoning.
Hutch and Alim I can agree with the numbers in the ballpark.
Jamo would need to have one hell of a season to get 22M per, which he may.
I think Kerby is about double where he should be.
Iffy I am “iffy” on. If he plays a full season like he did at the end of last year, he is going to command some big numbers
I loved how much Barnes grew last season, but I’d really question the FO if they signed him close to anything near 21M per
I agree Decker should be higher teens, unless he gives us quite the discount
Agreed.
I put these numbers out there to show what a true starter makes.
If any of these guys get less, that’s because they arnt the long term solution. The team will go out and draft or sign a possible replacement.
Signing barns to $18-22m aav contract means hes gonna be the starter for the next 4-5 years.
Signing him to a 10-15m aav contract means. Your the bandaid until we can find your replacement.
For line backers.
Long term starters make $13-20M
Bandaid/bridges make 7-12m.
So if barns plays halfway decent hes gonna want starter money.
Kerby/ Iffy similar kind of numbers.
Starters $13-20m
Bridges 7-12m
mcneil
Starters $22-32m
Bridges $15-20m
Hutch and williams are a given.
But Decker. Hes not a top10 LT any more by lost metrics. He WAS elite. Now hes just good.
He will be 32 before the season starts in 2025.
The ONLY Tackle to get that kind of money 31 and older
Everyone else that is paid that high ($10+m) and that age (31+) , signed a long term extension in their late 20s. (27-28yo)
So 10-13m is a realistic stand point. Especially since everyone else in that age group is getting 5-8m
Larry Tunsil $25M (starts this year when he is 30), Jake Mathews $18.5M (starts this year when he is 32) and Dion Dawkins $20M (starts next year when he is 31), all three year extensions. Garrett Bartles $17M/4yr ending this year when he is due $16M in cash. Trent Williams signed a 6yr $23M APY 3yrs ago at 33.
Decker is getting quite a bit more than $10M.
That’s not market value, that’s way too high. There is such a thing as a middle market. That’s what we got Reader and Davenport for this year.
Jamo needs to prove himself this year and/or next, really hard to project his contract.
Barnes might get near $10M
Joseph and Iffy slightly above $10M
Alim maybe $15M-$18M, depending on this year
Hutch at $34M is a good number
Decker near $20M.
The only thing I’m concerned about (and hopeful for) is that Alim has a monster year next to Reader. DT prices have been skyrocketing and if he has a 10-sack year inside…man, I could see him wanting a low-to-mid 20s number.
But I think your numbers are much closer to reality.
Those o Tackles you mentioned got their extensions at 27-28 years old. Not 32.
If decker signed an extension last year yes he would get close to 20m
Now? Like i said, only 2 have been paid $10m+ NEW money at 30+
Armstrong was an overpay (new Orleans) hence why he took a paycut this year. And Williams may be the best ot in history.
Every other OT in the nfl over the age of 30 that got an extension was under 10m.
And VERY rarely does an OT over the age of 30 get a pay raise extension. (Decker currently ~15m) hes gonna take a pay cut or equal. to stay or he gone. I could se 13m at most but thats the ceiling.
And yes mid market does exist. However, will the player agree to that?
Will Kerby and Iffy agree to $10-15m if they could get $20 in FA?
Typically mid market guys get passed around from team to team. Not sign extensions. Ie davenport .
But if they pay Iffy and Kerby $10-15m the lions will be actively looking for their replacement.
What DT out there thats halfway productive and under the age of 25 took under market value? Dexter Lawrence singed for $22.5M 2 years ago.
With the DT market increasing, and the cap shooting up. McNeil if he stays hot will get $25-32m
Hes been a top 10 3tech for the last 1.5 years
Didn’t Barmore just sign for like a shade over 20m? 25 years old and 8.5 sacks last year (more than Alim has had his entire career, btw). Signed a 4-year, 84m extension for 21m APY.
By your own reasoning, this should have never happened and the Patriots are now looking to replace him.
Hell, Derrick Brown just extended for 24m APY. He missed the 25 mark by a year, but it’s still his second contract. Madibuike, who just had 13.5 sacks last year, only signed for 24.5m APY for his second contract. Not every dude is getting Chris Jones/Wilkins dollars.
Sorry, I just don’t believe that Alim is going to command much more than these guys did. He’s not a Chris Jones level guy (so far).
Those extensions start when they are 30, 31 and 32 and Williams when he was 33. Any extension Decker signs will start when he is 32. Decker is still a very good LT. $5M-$10M LT are borderline starters/backups, that is not Decker.
No, $13M is too low
They aren’t getting $20M, no way. Safety took a major step back this year. Currently #5 is $16M and #10 is $10.5M. Neither one is a top 10 S, not sure where you are coming up with $24M, but you are way off, cut it in half.
Aliem is top 10. Is he elite? No. Is goff elite? No. If your top 10 in the NFL at your position you get top 5 money.
He wont get top dollar. ie set the market. But he will get top 5. Aka 25-32m
And i dont die on the LB and Safty hill because those markets are indeed dropping and those guys need to have a break out year to sed anywhere close to that. But i was saying IFY they have a breakout year.
Decker again when they SIGNED the contract not when it went into effect.
Again if Decker SIGNED last year 2023 he would get ~20. But if he signs next year (2025) he will not get anywhere near that. Simply because its never happened. Asside from Williams thats elite. Even at 33.
And armstrong that was an overpay.
Again, Christian Barmore just finished #9 in PFF grade behind Alim’s #8. He’s 25 and just signed a 21m APY extension. Your evaluation doesn’t hold true even this past offseason.
Madubike just got 24.5m in his second contract coming off a season in which he led the league in sacks from the DT position. Derrick Brown, second contract, #4 in PFF grade, only got 24m.
As of now, I think Alim is a tier below these guys. If he has another good year, I think he’ll want something in the same range. He’d have to do something crazy to warrant a contract in the mid-to-high 20s. 30 is laughable. It’s just not realistic. He’s not Chris Jones. (But if he turns out to be, then sure, pay the guy). I just don’t think it’s the realistic picture you’re painting it as.
I also disagree with this. He’s basically Top 5 in every statistical QB category since the 3-3 finish to the 2021 season. And he plays the most important position in the sport.
So everyone has a breakout year and somehow Decker regresses? Your numbers on Barnes, Iffy and Kerby are way out of line.
That’s wrong, age matters, but it doesn’t matter your age when you sign the contract, it matters what your age is when you are playing on that contract. Decker is still a top 10 LT and will get paid accordingly, close to $20M if not more.
Most metricks ive been looking at has decker sliding down last 2 years. Hes now border line top 10 not solid.
And it does matter. Because of the guarantees.
Most od the guys that signed at 28 but are still playing at 32 on that contract, the guarantees were pretty much all done by then. Making the contract virtually void. Teams could get out at any time.
Say decker does sign a 3 year $18m extension. 54 total. 20+ of that will be guaranteed. Meaning you cant get out of the contract at all until hes 35+.
Vs the guys that signed a $15m AAV contract at 28. And have 2 years left at 32. The guarantees are gone and they can be cut with little to no hit.
Not only that. Like you said they SIGNED at 28 but the contract didnt start til 30.
But most of the cash of that contract extension was already paid by the time they hit 30.
Its just never happened before. There is no trend or data to point to anything different l.
Borderline top 10 is really, really good.
That’s wrong, the Dawkins (30) has $19.2M in guarantees, Mathews (32) has $15.5M in guarantees and Tunsil (31) has $28M in guarantees. All of them are in the top 7 LT’s in amount of guarantees remaining.
That is not what that means.
Nope not gone yet.
Not much. Tunsil signed for $25M/yr and is owed $20.4M/yr in cash over the life of the extension that starts this year. Dawkins signed for $20M/yr and is owed $18.75M in cash over the life of the extension which starts in 2025. Mathews signed for $18.5M/yr and is owed $15.5M/yr on the extension that starts this year.
The three LT’s I pointed to above are his comparables. That’s the trend and the data.
Your projections on Decker, Barnes, Iffy, Kerby and Alim were so bad, that it needs to be pointed out. Not sure what you are doing to come up with those numbers, but they are really bad projections.
The number 16 LB contract in the league is $7.75m APY, and the number 32 LB contract is $5m APY. If Barnes plays like he did last year and Holmes extends him then that’s what his range of pay is going to be.
The number 16 S contract is $7.25m APY, and the number 32 S contract is $4.5m APY. Like Barnes, if Holmes wants to extend Iffy then that’s what the pay range will be.
Teams don’t pay top 5 money unless the player is producing top 5 output, and for all that Barnes and Iffy stepped up last year neither of them are close to top 5 at their position. All contracts are benchmarked against performance and other similarly performing players in the league, Brad Holmes would laugh his ass off if Iffy or Barnes asked for $20m+.
I don’t think either of them will even get that much, but Brad’s whole job is trying to find better and cheaper replacements for everyone on the roster, that’s fundamentally what the job of a GM is. If you’re not a franchise cornerstone (Ragnow, Sewell, Goff, St Brown) or a high performing player with multiple years left on a rookie deal (Hutchinson, Gibbs, LaPorta, Branch) then your long-term roster spot is continually under review, and if it’s not then the GM is being negligent. Everyone except those two classes of player is completely disposable, and there’s only so many cornerstone players you can pay at one time.
