Iām going to enjoy all the success that Alim has this year because next year another team will be paying him, unless my crystal ball is lying againā¦
They wonāt get 20 in free agency. Their agents know that and will advise them accordingly.
Thereās no way youāre trying to say that Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu are going to make more money than Jalen Ramsey just because they go to free agency.
Iād be surprised if Kerby and Iffy made 24m combined after extensions, let alone a piece. Hell, you might get Iffy, Kerby and Barnes all for 24.5m in APY combined.
I just donāt think theyāre similar or even in the same tier man. Derrick Brown just set the NFL record by tackles a DT in a season with 103 which is almost as many as Alim has had his entire career (112). Heās an ELITE run defender, a great tackler, and still provides pressure from the inside (78.1 PFF pass rush grade vs. 78.6 for Alim). McNeil is around 40 tackles a year when healthy. They play a different style of game inside, but even still Derrick Brown is an elite run defender and he is paid for it.
And then you look at the elite sack producer like Madubuike, who again, just had 13.5 sacks last (Alim has 8 in his career), and just got extended for 24.5m per on his second contract.
Alim hasnāt produced like some of these top end guys, even though he is very good. But thatās just it. As it is now, Alim is just good. Heās not elite. I think the closest comp for Alim is Christian Barmore. Both in age, style of play, and production. And Barmore just signed a deal this offseason for $21m a year.
Alim isnāt even the best IDL on the team, imo. A healthy Reader is a tier above Alim.
DBend- kerby joseph is a 2 year in, slightly above average safetyā¦. Iffy is a guy that I believe this regime is only like warm on. I heard rumors they didnāt love Jonahās toughness, and HE GONE! I doubt they open up the checkbook unless we see a 90 tackle, 4 sack, 5 int type year with consistent play through regular season and playoffs, and plenty of availability. Barnes is a nice player, but exactly the type of play you DONT sign to a second contract. He and or Iffy are the perfect let em walk for comp picks guys.
Kerby isnāt a guy that requires a year 3 extension.
Decker gets 2 years and 35M new money with a semi out in 26ā with some savings.
Alim gets 4 years 84M if he has 7 plus sacks, or if we see a 4-5 sack campaign, I bet we see 3 years and 57M
Comparing him to guys who had more sacks last year than he has in 3 years is absurd.
Jamo has less than 500 yards receiving in 2 years. Letās see back to back 1,000 yard seasons and extend him prior to year 5 start if that happens.
McNeil is top 10 in every metric other than tackles and sacks. Those arnt the only stats that matter.
Pressure rate. Win rate. Run stopping. All those things matter.
Heres an updated chart with RANGES. Vs the maximum i included before
Except heās not. Aaron Donald has a Win % of 22.3. Dexter Lawrence? 20.2. Quinnen Williams? 19.5. Chris Jones? 17.8. Alim comes in at #27 in Win% at 12.5, and falls even further in True Pass Sets to #35 at 17.1. Top 10 in EVERY category? Heās not even close. Heās #57 in run stops. #25 in hurries. In fact, outside of PFF Grades, heās outside the Top 20 in almost every recordable statistic.
This isnāt to say heās bad because heās not. Heās a good player - GOOD, not great, not elite. Again, Christian Barmore is probably the most direct comparison to Alim through 3 years. They were taken in the same draft. They are similar ages. They have produced similar stats. Barmore just signed for 21m per year.
PFF Grades:
POS RANK
DEF
RDEF
TACK
PRSH
COV
McNeill
8
86.8
76.9
36.8
78.6
64.6
Barmore
9
83.8
67.8
61.5
84.9
66
PFF Stats:
SNP
PRS
SK
HIT
HUR
WIN%
BAT
SOLO
AST
MISS
MIS%
STOP
McNeill
682
43
6
7
30
12.5
1
16
16
6
15.8
20
Barmore
750
49
8
7
34
13.3
5
43
13
4
6.7
40
PFF True Pass Set Stats:
POS RANK
Snaps
PRSH
Pressures
Sacks
Hits
Hurries
WIN%
PRP
McNeill
15
187
82.3
27
3
4
20
17.1
8.8
Barmore
3
233
90.7
36
6
4
26
21.3
9.3
AGAIN for what feels like the 5th time and you have yet to address, Barmore just signed a 4yr/84m dollar extension. According to your projection model, this should have never happened. Madubuike, Jones, Williams, Wilkins, Brown, Buckner all signed new deals before Barmore did on April 29th for less APY than the rest. He wasnāt even in the Top 5 of this signing class, let alone the entire NFL. Yet, you are projecting McNeill to be around $6m more, minimum, APY than Barmore and be the #2-3 highest paid DT in the league. For what? The stats are nearly identical last season and Barmore has produced considerably more than McNeill over the course of three seasons while playing less snaps. McNeillās stats PALE in comparison to all of the guys putting up elite numbers.
Sorry, dude. Your projections are off unless Alim ends up being a first team All-Pro or something. Heās going to need 10+ sacks from the inside to earn over 25m+ a year. Just being āgoodā doesnāt get you paid Top 5 money unless youāre a QB. Alim isnāt Chris Jones. Heās not Aaron Donald. Heās not Quinnen Williams. You asked someone to find you an example of this in your first post and Iāve provided you with a direct comparison with Barmore.
I enjoy and agree with a lot of the stuff you post, but this topic being presented as a realistic expectations of signings is so far from what I believe is reality. Iāll give you the last word on it between you and I. I could end up being wrong and you could be right, but I just donāt see most of your projections being close and normally I wouldnāt have much to say about it, but I think theyāre egregiously off.
That canāt be right. OP gotta mean 3 years 21 mill total. 21 mill a year for an average off ball linebacker would be the dumbest signing in nfl history.
Anzalone got 3 years 18 million for example. And heās better than Barnes. Donāt tell you know who.
Andrew Whitworthās last contract was about 10 mil a year for three years which was slightly less than his previous 3 year contract. Of course he was about 38 at the time.
Heās valuing Barnes like heās Roquan, Kerby and Iffy like they are Winfield Jr, and Alim like heās Chris jones.
If we would have had Chris Jones, Ronquan and Winfield last year weād have won the SB easily.
Right now Jamo is Chark or even Hardman- a 500-600 yards 4 TD a year guy- WHEN he proves otherwise, we can discuss top 10 WR money.
Right now Alim has a career high of 5 sacks last year. He literally has HALF the sacks and pressures Sheldon Rankins had in NO thru 3 seasons. If he has 4/5 sacks again this year, Iād expect 2 years and 27Mā¦ similar to Rankins, but well under Barmore-
to say stats dont matter is silly- Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, K Mack, Von Miller, Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa, TJ Watt, JJ Watt have dominated the defensive player top contracts pool. Ironically they all have l multiple game wrecker seasons on PAPER- however if Lim goes off for 10 plus sacks- all bets are off. It would show his previous seasons have been held back by Benito and Buggs level guys next to him.
Christian Wilkins is the only one who got a huge deal from another team. Leonard Davis is much olderā¦.
Jones, Donald, Payne, Allen, Madabuike, J Simmons, Barmore, D Lawrence, D Brown, Q Williamsā¦. All higher drafted, more explosive players that had at least one year of elite production.
Im not saying pay him now. But next year in 2025.
These are the biggest contracts for DTs since 2020. Dont look at the amount. Look at the percentage of the cap.
