So many mocks have us going Brisker or Cine at 32/34 and they’re both very popular picks in here based on that poll from a couple of days back too, and I wanted to push back against the idea a little. Maybe their ceiling is 34, but history tells us it’s probably lower than that.

Just last year for instance Trevon Moehrig appeared in the 1st round of every mock, yet didn’t go until the mid-2nd. Kyle Dugger was a popular 1st rounder in 2020 who didn’t go until the 2nd, as were Winfield and Delpit. Adderly and Thornhill the year before that. Jessie Bates the year before that. That’s not to say that some safeties don’t go around where they’re predicted to go (Holland last year), but they almost always go at the lower end of their windows, and often much later. Rarely is a safety drafted above his average-mock-draft position.

The only safety who’s gone in the 1st round the past 3 years is Jonathan Abrams at 27 (and he’s been a bad pick). Kyle Hamilton will most likely end that streak this year, though personally I would be less surprised to see him go in the twenties than the top ten.

Of course I want a badass safety as much as everyone else on here, and I really like Cine and Brisker as prospects. I just think there are different ways to go about it. And I think Holmes feels that way too judging by his draft history.

For me, I wait until the 3rd, oftentimes our comp pick, to grab a guy like Bryan Cook (my fave), Kerry Joseph or Nick Cross. In the later rounds I could see guys like Tycen Anderson, JT Woods, Verone McKinley, Brad Hawkins, Dane Belton or Kolby Harvell-Peel winding up as starters. It’s not the slam dunk everyone wants, but safety is one of the better value positions in the mid-late rounds. And Brad mined it with the Rams like an expert.

I will also add that Dax Hill and Jalen Pitre are a little different in that they’re as much slot CB as safety, which will affect their value. Saying that I still think Pitre goes mid-2nd, though Hill’s athleticism could push him into the 1st.

Anyway, in that guess-the-pick contest we have every year, my hunch is if you go safety at 2, 32, or 34, you’re bound to be disappointed.


All I know is we desperately need some safeties. Walker is just ok and after that it’s a dumpster fire


Solid post and you’re right, I’ve noticed this as well, that safeties are always available later than everyone thinks. 34, 66 and even 97 feel like great spots to add a safety.

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It will depend how our first couple picks go, or if we have more ammo after 34 from a trade down. plus how the draft board looks at those spots.

If Holmes trades out of 2 and gets a top10 pick and a 2nd in the top 10-12 of that round, then it would be pretty foolish given the need of the team to ignore safety with 4 high picks. I would assume with the first three picks through 34 in that scenario that WR, DL and then probably LB would be looked at as both needs based and the board coming to them in those spots…and the same would likely be true for S at 38-42 or whatever he gets. I don’t think he will double tap WR in the first 3 picks…DL I could…and of course CB could be a grab.

Where we are stronger, at TE, OL and RB I don’t see the value in adding there at those spots when it’s a gaping chest wound at safety.

Sometimes you want to be Mr. Value Guy…but sometimes you have to pay attention to the on field deficits and be Mr. Pay Me Now.


I still want J.T. Woods. I think we’d probably have to use the comp 3rd though. I don’t think he makes it to the 5th with those measurable s.

I don’t disagree necessarily (though I was never on board with Hamilton at #2), I’m just pointing out what history tells us - both Brad’s history and the draft’s - to give the board something of a heads up over the way it might play out. If I had to make any predictions, I wouldn’t have one at 2, 32 or 34.


I’d be content to wait until the 3rd to get our safety— our pick or the comp pick

I’d rather we get a DE, LB, WR before we pick a safety


It’s a reasonable and rational take with a good chance of happening

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I can agree with the thought process of waiting until the 3rd for a safety. I see many good ones, just no game changers. Hamilton’s lack of speed scares me. Just don’t see him as a top 15 pick. He’s a pick for a team that’s close and needs that safety to fill in the missing piece to a defense. Not a player to start building a defense. Just an opinion :laughing:
It’s just sad how many needs this team has with no real playmakers/studs. We just need to draft as close to game changers as possible regardless of position other than O.Line maybe, as we’re pretty set there. I really think we need DE, Linebacker, reciever in any order our first 3 picks. Those 3 areas are so void of top level talent.

I agree. I think Cook and Pitre might both be gone by our 3rd round comp pick. I like Nick Cross and Verone McKinley there.

Cross intrigues me with his athletic numbers, I just don’t remember hearing his name much in the big ten games I watched. Was he very productive?

If he had better instincts I think he’d be up there at the top of the 2nd with the rest. He’s a freakish athlete, he flies downhill and can run sideline-to-sideline, he’s patient with receivers when he’s covering them and when the ball’s in the air. His ceiling is really, really high.

But at safety more so than at a lot of other positions, instincts are important. It’s how slower guys like Fuller, Hooker and the Bills duo thrive. Now Cross is still young and developing, but he’s a step or two late with most of his reactions right now.

Verone McKinley is just a football player. He’s also supposed to be a great leader and teammate. I’d love to add him to the squad but was hoping that might be possible with one of our fifth rounders.

I doubt Hill makes it to 32 given his combine numbers. I would love if he dropped to the Lions. I don’t see him getting past the Steelers unless they draft a QB

Lions sent players to scout Brisker and given the dearth of safety talent on the roster I would be shocked if we didn’t take a S with 32 or 34

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I agree, draft one in the 2nd or 3rd round. And did you see the article I posted yesterday about Okudah being a safety in high school. I think he might be moving there.

As long as we never have to see Will Harris play safety again, I’m good!

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See that’s why I made the post, to give everyone reasons they shouldn’t be shocked.


Ok well allow me to modify that statement. I would be surprised if we don’t take a safety at 32 or 34. I would be shocked if we don’t take one by the end of the third. And I expect we will draft more than one

It’s our position of biggest need and wasn’t strengthened by free agency. And Holmes has shown with DT last year that they aren’t afraid to draft multiple of a single position

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I’m warming up to possibly getting Pitre at 34 if he’s available because you can do different things with him in the slot, box safety, and even up working as a nickel lb. He’s one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft.

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Who knows. With the sudden need at receiver for so many teams now, maybe even some of the top safeties like brisker get pushed to the top of the 3rd. It all depends on how the board starts to fall.

Not sure I would classify him as a playmaker, but he’s not a scrub in that department. I think he would really benefit from the type of coaches we have because his problems aren’t athleticism related. Last season he had 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 3 interceptions and 5 pass defenses.