based on the past association that Holmes had with Rams… and the coaching staff…
I would be shocked if they draft a safety over a DT if there are 2 good players available.
Generally speaking I’d be inclined to agree. But considering we drafted DT twice fairly high last year, and we only have one marginally good safety, I’d be surprised if we wait.
Having said that, if they do have some late round safeties they are certain will be there, I also wouldn’t be surprised if we took a DT in the first three picks. We definitely still need a rotational attacking DT
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It’ll depend on how they value the DTs IMO. If Wyatt is there then yeah I can see them taking him. After Wyatt is where it gets tricky because I’m sure there’s quite a bit of variance on how teams view them. I mean it also depends on what you need. If you’re looking for a penetrator I’m not sure there’s one worth taking in the first round except Wyatt.
I like Logan Hall a lot as a penetrating DT, though I agree he’s probably not a 1st rounder. That said, anyone currently predicted to go in the 2nd could be a 1st rounder come draft day, we’re usually all over the place when it comes to like, picks 25-60.
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That’s true I do think Hall will be considered and to a lesser extent Winfrey. Leal could depending on how you feel about him. Yeah it’s a guessing game.
Historically through time: Drafting a safety in the first round isn’t a good idea let alone in the top 5.
Drafting Hamilton that early would be the Lions essentially saying he’s a HOF caliabler players.
It’s why drafting Okudah last year was bad( Standards for CB’s at top 5 are Charles Woodson/Deion Sanders/Patrick Peterson/Jalen Ramsey type CB’s ).
They should focus on the D-line. Jordan Davis for his size is a phreak, and if a staff thinks they can get some pass rush out of him with that speed/explosion then I think he’ll be drafted higher than people are assuming now.
They’ll be a defensive back talent later imo. I like Smoke Monday and Yusuf Corker but neither player seems to be rated very high and would be selected much lower than Lions 2nd rdp.
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Well, let’s start with the fact that these stats aren’t close to being current, the article was from 2015. They had a 10 year period where they looked at RB’s taken in the first round, there were 30, that’s an average of 3 RB’s taken in the first every year for 10 years. That simply isn’t close to the case any more. And that span was from 2000 to 2010. And they noted how things had “changed quite a bit over the years”.
“The above sample size includes the entirety of the 1990s and nearly half of the 1980s. The game has changed quite a bit over the years, so let’s perform the exact same study, while only looking at the first 10 drafts of the 21st century, ending in 2010.”
This article had some great info in 2015, and from then until now I really have no idea how relevant it is because obviously the game keeps evolving. That’s a lot of material to cover, so I’m out, but it is interesting.
Fair point. If you can find an updated analysis I’d like to take a look. Though a 25 year sample from 1986 to 2010 is a good amount of data to draw from. I know the game has changed since 2010 but not that dramatically
There’s a fair chance that Hill, Cine and Brisker are all gone by 32. In which case, it would make sense to wait until later unless they like Pitre.
There’s also a few free agent safeties available we can sign yet
I’d be absolutely shocked if this was the case
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I’d be surprised too. But the last five times I ran the PFN sim they were all drafted by 32….So were Lloyd and Dean. I ended up taking a DT in sim each time
They usually have KC and The Bengals both taking safeties just before 32. Usually Hill is a mid round pick.
Well, it has. I would think there’s less of a bust rate with WR’s. Why? Because they have made it harder to cover them, less contact is allowed, it increase’s their chances of success. There’s less emphasis on the run which increases the emphasis on the pass. Now, statistic’s may show that’s not the case at all. But it’s a radical change for RB’s as the 25 year shows almost 4 taken in the first, 96 in all.
2011-2021 20 safeties taken in the first round, 7 out of 20 have made the pro bowl, 35%, well under the 51.4% that made it in their span. No safeties were taken in the first round in 2020 and 2021. BTW, while I was looking this up I came across this, and would be interested in what people think.
Terrell Edmunds…
Your overating Davis and underrating Hamilton. A safety doesn’t need to be a future hall of famer to be picked in the top 5. Getting a 6’4 220lbs, FS/SS, who can cover tightends in man coverage and cover deep half is what the Lions need.
It’s a deep safety class, but an even deeper edge rusher class.
We are not picking Davis at 2, McNeil has that spot locked down.
This is obvious he neglected it last year and is doing it again this year so far. And it’s been one of the weakest position for years.
We used to have “big play slay” now we have “No play walker”.
good stuff. where did you find the data? not that I’m doubting it, would like like to check it out.
The article I just came across covers 2016-2020 and 10 true safeties, designated as safeties, taken in the first round
Keanu Neal - PB
Karl Joseph - N
Jabrill Peppers - N
Malik Hooker - N
Jamal Adams - PB
Terrell Edmunds - N
Derwin James - PB
Minkah Fitzpatrick - PB
Johnathan Abraham - N
Darnell Savage - N
That’s 40% And the kids from 2019 still have potential. We all know most DBs take a couple years to come into their own
You think four safeties go in round 1?
Maybe
Hamilton seems a top five lock unless his pro day knocks him down some. I think Hill will go mid round after his combine. There’s a chance Brisker and Cine will be picked. Bengals and KC with one of their firsts might be thinking Safety late in the first
It’s possible those four will go before the Lions pick. were that to happen I doubt they would select a safety unless they were keen on Pitre
Even though NO safeties have gone in the 1st round the past three years, despite being heavily mocked there beforehand?
I went through every draft and taken in the first and then cross referenced who was taken and went to the pro bowl.
2011 0
2012 2 Mark Barron, Harrison Smith*
2013 3 Matt Elam, Kenny Vaccaro, Eric Reid*
2014 4 Calvin Pryor, Deonne Buchanon, Jimmy Ward, Ha Ha Clinton Dix*
2015 1 Damarious Randall
2016 2 Karl Joseph, Keanu Neal*
2017 3 Malik Hooker, Jabrill Peppers, Jamal Adams*
2018 3 Terrell Edmunds, Minkah Fitzpatrick*, Derwin James*
2019 2 Darnell Savage,Johnathon Abram
2020 0
2021 0
- indicates pro bowl
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Last two drafts you mean. None in 2020 and 2021. Two in 2019. I will all but guarantee at least two will be picked this year. And late in the round both the Bengals and KC are talking safety. So it ‘could’ be three or four easy.
How often do you get chatter of a safety being the number one or two pick? It’s a weird draft year - No marquee QBs, lukewarm WRs and deep DL.
Also the two ‘final’ mocks from SI and CBs for 2020 and 2021 only had one S total for both years mocked in 2020 - McKinney at 26 overall. Are you positive they were heavily mocked in the first for those years?