This is how I’ve approached the safety class all along. Walker is essentially gonna be the FS this year(if not it’ll be a surprise to me). This class is chalk full of SS and honestly wouldn’t mind doubling up. Cook at 97 will be pretty surprising to me. I think you’ll see a run on safety in the 2nd round and I see Cook as possibly one of those guys drafted there.
Markquese Bell is a big safety big like Iffi 6’2″ and 200 pounds
33″ arms an he is fast His college career was done it appeared but he wanted to play an worked his way back going to small school then Florida A an M
He is solid in run support an likes it he would be nice pick along with Brisker or Pitre early an him rd 5 I also like Cook
Damn bro you just screwed up a perfectly good lie.
The original statement was that MOST good safeties are selected after the 34th pick…
which he illustrated to be correct.
Furthermore…. looking at 5 players doesn’t really give an appropriate sample size for a statement that includes the word “most”… so here is a link to the top 32 safeties according to PFF, which contains about 75% of players selected after the 1st round.
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Thoughts on Bubba Bolden?
Top 5 by what metric?
According to PFF, the top rated safeties are:
Byard: 64th overall
Winfield: 45th overall
Hooker: 116th overall
Holland: 36th overall
Hyde: 159th overall
For an average draft position of 84.
But as @Phunnypharm says, that’s a small sample size. So even taking it to ten would get you:
Stewart: 53rd overall
Williams: 42nd overall
Phillips: UDFA
James: 17th overall
Houston-Carson: 185th overall
That would make the average draft position ~95, if you assign Phillips the last spot in the draft.
By virtually any metric the best safeties are chosen later than the 35th pick on average.
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He’s a tough one to figure out. He’s got all the tools in the world but just never really put it together and frankly, sometimes his tape is hard to watch. To me safety is one of the more instinctive positions which is why you see slower guys thrive all the time (Fuller, Hooker, Hyde, Poyer, etc…), I hesitate to draft a guy who doesn’t seem to have them. He’s kind of a poor man’s Nick Cross, IMO. That said he would be cheap and he’s certainly got a lot of upside if he can develop those instincts, I’m just not sure I’d bet on it.
He has all the tools is right, not sure if he’s a guy you can coach up or not. His draft status will put him into the late rounds where we can take some chances, I guess it depends on who is still there. Anyway, he’s just a guy I think is better than we’ve seen.
When I googled the first link I got was nfl.com
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nfl.com/_amp/top-10-safeties-heading-into-2021-nfl-season
But the point is there is no magic bullet. Let’s check out WRs. Going to PFF the top five WRs are
Cooper Kupp - 69
Devonte Adams - 54
Deebo Samuel - 36
Damiere Byrd - Undrafted (263)
Deandre Carter - Undrafted (263)
That’s an average position of 137th. Guess we can conclude by every metric most best WRs are drafted after the 36th pick and we should wait until the third or fourth round always. I mean Amon Ra right?
Where to draft safeties is an interesting argument.
My question is whether you would rather use a top 34 pick for a top 10 safety or use a lower round pick for a 10-20 safety. Not sure it’s so easy to use “top player” metric the same way we would with QB or WR or DE. Or OT for that matter.
Well I would argue that’s why limiting the sample size to five isn’t the way to go, but it’s not wrong to say WR value of late has been high on day 2 and beyond (Adams, Metcalf, AJ Brown, Deebo, Kupp, Tyreek, etc…). But there’s also hits from the 1st like Chase, Waddle, Jefferson, Hopkins, Lamb, etc…
At safety there’s Derwin James in the 1st and that’s about it (I think Adams is terrible at everything except blitzing and Harrison Smith isn’t the player he used to be). Otherwise ALL of the best safeties were drafted outside the 1st round. So to say on average they’re drafted 35th overall is just greatly skewing the numbers.
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I have a thought on this and that is that the Lions will either take a QB with that 32 pick or trade out of it with a team that wants to get that extra year on the deal.
Safety is a position that is hard to evaluate as an amateur draftnik. Brisker is easy to like because you see his running down plays all over the field and he can tackle.
So if you think 34 too high, then maybe you trade down from 32, pick up a later 2nd rounder and more, then hopefully nab Brisker there.
But IMO we really really need a SS and I’d rather make sure we get a starter than swing and miss.
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I think it is fine to take a safety at #34 if they like a guy thst much better than the alternatives… I just disagrre with some of the earlier posts that the Lions “need” to take one with 1 of their top 3 selections.
As @Thats2 pointed out recently… there are many years where mock drafts have 2,3, maybe 4 safeties going in the 1st round… but the reality is that safeties often get picked lower than the pre-draft buzz would make us think.
I am guessing there will be a safety left at #66 that many of us would be happy to land.
rounding off the top ten…
Stephon Diggs - 146
Jamison Crowder - 105
Chris Conley - 76
Tyler Lockett - 69
Nelson Agholor - 20
Should we do this with linebackers next? The moral of the story is regarding position groups we can usually find most the top talent in the NFL is outside the first round. Because it’s a much bigger pool of prospects.
No we shouldn’t, because it’s beside my point.
I’m not saying I agree with one approach over another. I’m saying 1) historically, safeties get drafted later than the draft narrative would have us believe (as I mentioned in my original post) and 2), it’s my belief, based upon HIS history, that Holmes doesn’t value the safety position as highly as some on here do. That’s it. I’m only trying to prepare everyone for it to happen.
Whether or not the reason for that is because safeties can be found later or because of roster value or contract value is essentially irrelevant to my point (though I’m guilty of arguing it as well). Obviously the field is a better bet in any gambling endeavor.
However despite the field being the better bet, even at QB, it’s also true that there is a more palpable lack of star 1st round safeties than at any other position. Like I said, it’s Derwin James and that’s it. Your best safeties are drafted later and while yes, you can find star WRs, QBs, etc… drafted later as well, you will also find plenty of stars drafted in the first round at those positions. Even lowly drafted positions like TE, C, and LB have better hit rates than safety in the 1st.
Again, I’m not advocating for one way or another. I think Hamilton has a chance to be a very good player and make it two good 1st rounders, but the overall point will still stand. And as I said in my original post, I’d be less surprised to see him drafted in the twenties than in the top ten.
Actually I wouldn’t mind grabbing both of the Baylor safeties. You have the versatile Pitre and the rangy Woods who can backup Walker and is insurance in case Walker moves on from us.
I think this is the most valid point, that we should all be able to acknowledge, and brought value to this thread. You’re 100% right. The Lions can choose safety whereever they’d like, but it seems they’ll have their pick of whatever safety they want (outside of Hamilton) at 32 or 34. So if they love a guy who they think can come in and start - they’re in a great position.
Also feels like a great spot to trade out of though as well.
I’m not sure what draft narrative you’re referring to but this year, for this team, I would be more surprised than not if we didn’t take a safety with 32 or 34. It’s arguably the most pressing need at the moment. Unless we sign a FA safety we need two more. The Lions sent the defensive back coaches to Briskers pro day. I’d be willing to bet that if he’s on the board we draft him.
I think we go:
DE
LB/S/WR
LB/S/WR
with less of a need emphasis on wide receivers
It’s also relevant to note that the biggest amount of players drafted overall are defensive backs. Nearly, 21% of all players drafted in the last decade are defensive backs. Often safeties can fill in as LB and slot corner. And they have the open field skills to be special team performers
The ‘hit rate’ of all DB’s, including safeties in the 7th round is the same as the 4th. But that doesn’t mean if there’s a top player who fits a team need they should be neglected
Because in fact Safeties, just behind linebackers have the highest success ‘all-pro’ rate of all first round picks in the last 25 years for an all-pro rate of 25.7%
They have the highest Pro Bowl rates for the first round and the second lowest ‘bust rates’
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Let’s just say we’re not gonna agree on this lol. You can provide stats that back up your point and I can provide stats that dispute and in the end, none of it matters. I wouldn’t be shocked if we went safety at 32 or 34, but based on history and what I believe to be Brad’s preferences, I wouldn’t bet on it. That’s all. Maybe it’s a bad idea, maybe it isn’t.
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