The call was the right call. Not just because it worked. It wasn’t the gamble that most people will think just reading box scores, drive charts or watching 5 minute highlight segments. Which is what most of these guys do.
If you read a general guide on coaching strategy, it will say take the points. However, the book does not account for circumstances around an individual game. The circumstances around this individual game would say to go for it. That’s why you have coaches, and not just a guidebook that everyone flips to chapter 8 page 32 for what play to call next.
Yes, decisions sometimes lose. However everyone wants to point out that this kind of decision cost the Lions the NFCCG. That’s accurate, and fair. What’s also accurate and fair is to say we didn’t have the kicker and defense we did last year. Dan probably takes the points last year with this year’s team. Also, if Detroit were playing Philadelphia in this years NFCCG, the circumstances are going to be different than they are Week 14 vs the Packers when both teams were missing guys on defense. Campbell coached for the moment, and was right. Just like he has been 12 times already this year.
One last point before this becomes a book. Does everyone remember when Tampa Bay played KC, in KC and had the option to either go for 2 and the win, or kick the XP and play for OT? The coaches handbook would say you kick the XP and play for OT. Bowles followed the coaches handbook. Chiefs win the game in OT. Everyone said, Bowles should’ve went for 2 and the win. Campbell did what Bowles didn’t have the guts to do. He said win it now, and don’t risk Green Bay getting the ball back and kicking the FG at worst, or risk OT most likely. Campbell was right, and Bowles was wrong.
I really should’ve said this in my last post. If the Lions fired Dan Campbell after the GB game because he was “too aggressive”, how long do you think he would be unemployed? He would have offers to coach as soon as next weekend. If Campbell was wrong, and reckless, why would so many teams right now KILL to have Campbell as their team’s head coach?
You know one way of doing it your entire life. Then someone comes along and is doing it differently and producing better results. You don’t know exactly why what they are doing is working but every fiber of your being is telling you it’s wrong. You lock in on evidence that supports your case and ignore evidence that doesn’t.
In the game in Green Bay, we went for it twice on 4th down and scored a pair of TD’s.
On Thursday we went for 4th down 5 times (not getting it once, the time he mentioned) but he failed to mentioned that we scored 2 TD’s on 4th down in this game as well.
We might have lost both games had Dan not gone for it.
When it doesn’t work, it is very obvious in the moment. That’s part of the problem. Another coach might “do the right thing” and kick the FG, then his defense allows Love to march down the field for a FG and they win it in OT, and the coach doesn’t catch any flack for his decision because it’s the conservative choice all the old school pundits would make, AND it was so far in the past.
Screw that.
Also, for every game where a missed 4th down contributes to losing, many more contribute to us winning. Honestly even if you win 1.5 games for every game you lose by going for it, it’s worth it, but I suspect our number is MUCH higher. We make it most of the time.
Finally, I wouldn’t say we lost the NFCCG because of the missed 4th down attempts. Yes, they contributed, but there were a lot of reasons we lost. The biggest, to me, was we weren’t ready for the moment. We beat ourselves as much as they came back and beat us. The missed 4th downs were part of it, but not the main reason imo.
Oh yeah, I agree completely with what you’ve said and made similar posts. We melted in the moment. The media narrative is, we lost because Campbell was too aggressive and cost us the game. It had nothing to do with the Gibbs fumble, Vidlor helmet clang, and then Reynolds dropping 2 sure first downs.
I am amazed at the level of detail that our players understand their assignments and execute them. This staff really is on a different level.
Here is what alot of people are not understanding. The fake punts are based on “looks” rather than situation. If they get the look they prepared for, they run that particular fake…period. It sucks when it doesn’t work. But it forces the other team to adjust out of their preferred kick defense. The same snowball effect happens with the other stuff Dan does. The aggressiveness on 4th down completely changes the playcalling on 3rd down. And as Chris Long has pointed out, our 3rd down playcalling is “extremely annoying” for defenses. Because we are the only team that is just as likely to run the ball on 3rd and 8 as pass it. And here is where the 4th down playcalling comes into play. If they stop the 3rd down run short of the 1st down, that is not the end of it…because we are likely to fake it or go for it. So they have to not only honor our 3rd down runs and passes short of the 1st down, they have to play it aggressively to make sure they do not leave us with a managemable 4th down distance. Basically…they have to play 3rd down like it is 2nd down. That removes the other teams exotic 3rd down packages. So the looks are simpler. But since they have to stop us more than 1 or 2 yards short, they makes them have to play the down aggressively, which opens up space further down the field for us.
I could keep going, including the fact that teams feel the need to start being extra aggressive in their playcalling when they play us. The snwball effect is something that is not fully understood now, even though analytics back the decisions. But what Dan is doing stretches far beyond analytics, and impacts playcalling far beyond the actual playcall.
The man is 12-1 and has the biggest point differential in the league. Brought a team from the outhouse to near the penthouse in 2 years. You can kindly ■■■■ off Teddy from your armchair coaching perch.
Remember last year vs Seattle? Carroll said just that. That he had to coach different from his norms “my comfort zone” bc of how DC dictates the tempo and style. Its truly amazing. When i heard Dan plays up the “oh shucks meathead” angle on purpose i realized how f’d the league was for underestimating him.
MCDC and now the Lions have a culture and a style of play.
Pitt has one
SF has one
Philly has one
Baltimore has one
My point to Tedi and anyone out there is no one is suggestion these other teams change their style or culture. The Lions now have their unique style and culture.
And quite frankly in the NFL the proof is in the winning. As the Big Tuna would say - at the end of the day you are what your record says you are ……….
MCDC is doing it his way with his culture and has a team of dudes who are all in on this culture and style.
