The Data sure points to SHEP… not Brad, Dan, or especially Goff

The Den
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Brad, Dan, Morton, and Goff have all gotten hate in 2023 to differing levels for our struggles, and I’ve been a bit of a “Pollyanna” in their defense… I couldn’t figure out if I’ve grown complacent, lost a lil’ of my Lions passion, or simply didn’t agree with the narrative of late. Then I realized I’m still posting in this wonderful forum daily, watching every second of every game intently, and then it hit me…

It’s not really Brad, Dan, Morton, Goff, Ra, Glasgow or anyone other than “SHEP,” and of course the schedule gets an honorary mention.

Sure we could “clean up” the offense, and being healthier would be nice… BUT we still have the 10th highest PPG (THIS SEASON) of any team the last 5 seasons… and that includes the 24’ Lions (we are still 2 ppg ahead of the 2023 NFCC game offense under Ben)… it doesn’t feel like it though right???

Why? I’m sure many of you remember my “defend Goff” posts where pointing out that no QB other than Pat Mahomes (although his magic wore off this year) wins games when facing a lot of points. In fact… NO QB IN NFL HISTORY (with more than 50 starts) HAS A WINNING RECORD AGAINST 27 OR MORE POINTS….

Mahomes: 18-18 (as of this year finally not over .500)… and again he’s only faced 27 points or more 25% of the time in his entire career.

Allen: 9-13… only 18% of his games he faces 27 plus points… 40%

Stafford: 15-67… Stafford has faced 27 plus points a whopping 82 times out of 233 (35%) and his winning percentage is a paltry “18%”

Goff: 22-35… that’s right Goff has faced 27 plus points “39 FREAKING PERCENT” of the time in his career… and he wins 39% of the time!!!

- Brees was 31-77 out of 283 games, and this also faced 27 plus 39% of the time, and still had a respectable 29% win rate, but not quite Goffs 39%…

Peyton Manning was 25-58, or 83 out of 265 for 31% of his career games. The great Peyton only won 30% of the time vs 27 plus
points

PS- Drake Maye the new golden boy is 1-6 versus 27 points…. Just 6 of 26 starts or 23% of the time he faces 27 plus points and he wins just 17% of the time.. Lower than Stafford.

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2021 Rams- they won the SB after allowing 27 points just 4 times all year… they were 0-4 in those games.

2022 Chiefs- they won the SB after allowing 27 points just 5 times, and Magic Mahomes went an incredible 4-1 in those games…

2023 Chiefs- they won the SB after allowing… 27 plus points “ZERO” times, and they still lost 5 games btw…

2024 Eagles- they went 1-1 in the two games they allowed 27 points

—- Lions- they went an amazing 4-1 when facing 27 points last year… a testament to Goff and Ben, but again they only allowed 27 points 5 times…keeping in mind the last 4 SB winner have averaged 2.25 games a year versus 27 points!

2025

— Detroit- We’ve already allowed 5 and we are 2-3 in those games…

— Rams- they are 0-2 in games allowing 27 plus

— Broncos- they are 1-1 in games allowing 27 plus

—- Patriots- they are 1-0 facing 27 points last year

—- Chiefs??? They are 0-4 facing 27 plus points this year… weird

— Ravens??? They are 0-5 facing 27 plus points

—- Packers??? They’ve allowed 27 plus points once… they TIED…

—- Eagles??? They allowed 27 plus points once this year… they lost!

Many of you like to hold “stats” against me, and focus on the eyeball test..

Is this really worth arguing this?

PS-

Cowboys- 6

Bucs-6

Lions- 5

Bears- 5

Jaguars- 5

  • that’s your list of teams who have faced 27 points 5 or more times, and have a winning record.
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Thanks for this - Perspective is always good!

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Excuse me. I’ve heard we’re good. Stats are for nerds.
nerds GIF

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Apparently the defense is uncoordinated.

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That’s alot of writing just to say:

non-brad-brad

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Giving Winston and Love almost 4 seconds to pass and not being able to stop the run at all the last 2 weeks with a virtually fully healthy front 7.

Thats 10000% on Brad Holmes. “Fans are mad cuz we have Aiden” “is it like this in other markets”

No Brad its not like this in other markets, because they actually go out and get players to play next to their probowler DL. Not waiver claims and injured players.

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The Rams, Packers, Broncos and Patriots gave each held 8 or more teams to 20 or less points…. It’s weird that they all have 3 or less losses…

Lions have held 3 teams to 20 or less points.

In 2024 the Lions held ELEVEN teams to 20 or less…. We held 7 teams to 14 or less….

You have an 85% chance to win when you hold a team to 14 or less… historically

You have an 85.1% chance of losing when allowing 28 or more….

We have one of the best shootout QBs in NFL history, but it’s still less than 40%…

We need to build a defense that allows 20 points at or less 12 times a year and the rest will work out….Take a look at TB12 Patriots… they held between 8-12 teams year to 20 or less in almost every season for nearly 20 years.

Until this year that is what Josh Allen and Lamar have benefited from.

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This has been eye opening.

I think my boy Shep needs some help. While I like a lot of individual players on our defense, overall there is a slight lack of speed and physicality, and you have clearly seen the results the last two games. The opposing QB gets very comfortable when Hutch is handled. There just isn’t much to fear.

Hutch needs to be better, the #2 DE needs to be better, interior DL needs to have more success pushing the pocket … and it’s time for Barnes to show that he is back.

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Maybe the better defenses are oriented around not giving up big passing plays at the expense of giving up a half-yard more on the ground on average.

Maybe a secondary that’s just as proficient at zone coverage as it is at man coverage would give up fewer big passing plays.

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Nerds are cool! My inherent bias has nothing to do with that claim.

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So with the talent we have, the relative good health we have in the front 7 and no results to show would be very supportive of the OP’s point that this is a scheme thing which….checks notes…Shep is responsible for.

Shep showed a willingness to change the scheme against the Eagles and it was effective…I still think that we gave them that game vs them actually wining it.

“Its not like this in other markets, because they actually go out and get player to play next to their probowler DL” - I assume you mean in the offseason because what exactly did teams like the ; Patriots, Colts, Rams, Seahawks and even the Bears do at the trade deadline, absolutely nothing and guess what? They are all still very competitive. So if we are talking about lack of moves in the offseason, how could we forecast that Shep would be so meh?

Should we have added another DE opposite Hutch…of course, but that ship has sailed and Shep has not shown the ability to properly scheme. Remember that AG did alot more with alot less

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Again…. We had a historic amount of injuries last year.

We allowed 21 plus points just 5 times!

So having Aiden back probably felt like an upgrade? We lost CD3, but got Reed…

There was no reason to expect we’d go from holding 65% of our opponents to 20 or under, and a year later drop to 25%?

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Im not talking the trade deadline!

Im talking the last 2+ years, 2 draft, 2 free agencies and yes 2 trade deadlines.

What have the Lions done to help Aiden??? Virtually nothing. Mean while all those teams you mentioned? They drafted edge rushers in the draft. They signed more DL depth.

Lions? Waiver claims, late round draft picks, and some often injured bargain bin players that are shocking always injured.

The defense HAS ALWAYS performed poorly, hence why we have been demanding more DL help,

The reason why the lions defense doesnt look as good is because they are playing from behind more!!!

The defense relied on the offense to have those long sustaining drives with a solid run game.

Makes it much harder on the defense having to get stop after stop on short fields.

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I do think there’s a little more to it, but I’ve been a steady believer since 2023, Goff ain’t the problem. He’s far from it. Yes, he could be a little more mobile, I wish he were perfect all the time too. But he’s more than capable of being a SB winner. And I thought the same of Matty fire

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It’s time for us to stop having fantasies about man coverage and Cover 1.

Our defense has been so bad because of our lack of pass rush / pressure and our heavy rate of man coverage.

MAN COVERAGE IS FOR SITUATIONS, NOT TO RUN ALL THE ■■■■■■■ TIME.

Thank you.

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IMG_5856
IMG_58562343×475 96.8 KB

Look at the average drive and game summary.

Defense is virtually the same as the last year in terms of
Plays per drive
Yards per drive. (Last year gave up more yards per drivr)
Heck even points per drive

The difference? TOP per game. A full minute difference. Why?
Because the OFFENSE isnt as effective.

So because the Defense was NEVER improved over the last 2 years. That FORCED the offense to stay HYPER efficient. (Which the last 2 years was the most efficient offense since the Greatest show on turf)

You CANNOT hope the offense stays that efficient when you lose 2 pro bowl IOL

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It’s weird how the defense sucks whilst also having the whole 2023 draft class be a big giant nothing burger with zero contribution as of today…along with the only defensive player actually playing from the last two drafts being a struggling/young run stopper :man_shrugging: :thinking:…and also along with the only off season addition to the defense being a hold serve move in reed for davis, but yeahhh it’s Shep’s fault…

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Well said….

it’s almost absurd that some are so emotional that’s they are willing to ignore blatant FACTS!

So Matty miracle wins 18% of the time when he faces 27 points… but he sure can fit it into windows! Josh Allen and Lamar don’t win when facing 27 plus 70% of the time….

I’m not sure why Goff facing 27 plus points more frequently, and winning a MUCH higher percentage of games when he does… isn’t appreciated.

He throws more TDs, turns it over less, and wins more shootouts than almost any QB alive.

Goff not being mobile isn’t the issue….Goff not having a cannon, isn’t the issue. Ben being gone is only slightly the issue…. The OL is somewhat the issue…

Kerby- pro bowl

Branch- pro bowl

Hutch- All pro

Mac- plus starter

Reader- average or above

Jack- will make pro bowl

Analzone- solid starter

Reed- plus starter

Robertson- average player

Arnold- 1st rounder

Tyliek- 1st rounder

Barnes- average or above

  • I know we’ve missed some games here, but so have the 49ers, and then some. Their leading sack guys are Clelin Ferrell and Bryce Huff.. 4 each

I’m going to blame 100% almost on scheme

  • Muhammad has 7 sacks and 36 pressures on 306 snaps
  • J Phillips has 50 pressures and 4 sacks in 626 snaps and the Eagles are 2-2 since trading for him btw…

Is the issue really having 2 edges who will likely have 12-13 and 9-10 sacks each?

Or is it that Campbell, Barnes, Nowaske, and Anzo have 10.5 combined sacks, but only 2 combined since Tampa?

Or is it that we have McNeill playing DE while we somehow have ONE total sack between Mac, Lopez, Reader, and Tyliek?

I’m sorry-

—we had 19 edge sacks last year… we have… we had 7 LBs sacks last year

— we had 2.5 DB sacks last year… we had 10.5 DT sacks last year

However in 25’ we have-

— 10.5 LB sacks…. We have 18 edge sacks already thru 12 games!

— we have 2.5 db sacks, but we have ONE DT sack…

We have 32 sacks already vs 37 last year

  • we are 21st in takeaways

  • we are 11th in rush D

  • we are 17th in pass D

  • we are 30th in passing TDs allowed

  • we are tied for 6th in rushing TDs allowed

  • we are low in total penalties, but 6th in down penalties allowed

  • we are 22nd in TO %.

    our defense has regressed almost exactly as much as our offense did, and we went from a historic offense to a top 3 offense in the league… and a solid but badly banged up defense… to a mostly healthy, pretty average to bad D! The yards allowed are misleading imo. It feels like last year we bent and didn’t break while causing more turnovers, and this year we get plenty of 3 and outs, but they allow big play TDs without creating many turnovers?

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I was just looking up defensive turnovers created. We have 13 which is bottom 3rd of the nfl. AG’s Jets defense has created 2 turnovers all season. Now that is hard to believe. In 12 games the Jets have zero interceptions. And 2 fumble recoveries

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