Same. Nothing wrong with vibe guy
Why do you think after centuries the saying
“Trust your gut”
Is still around
That is completely fair, and 100% true. It’s just from what I gathered, this convo got started based on whether or not a trade was enough, which pretty much puts it into the realm of the compensation charts only. Whether either team would actually do the trade, well I have my doubts.
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I don’t love math lol. I actually despise it. What I said was (or meant to say), was that it comes natural. Math might be the most misleading thing on the planet. As I’ve stated a couple times now it’s a baseline/guideline. Taking statistics or data for anything more than that can get you into trouble.
Have you heard Terrence Howard explain why 1 x 1 can’t = 1
And the loop where x3 = 2x
Pretty mind opening stuff
… I guess math is fake just like our news, history, health, food pyramid, and everything else we’ve been programmed to believe is true in this world
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Math is the best tool to manipulate the masses. Math is facts! And you can’t dispute facts!
Oh how untrue that is…
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Definitely true in the gambling world
The Sportsbooks pay networks & talking heads to promote certain “stats of the week”
Once I hear everybody saying the same stat leading up to game time ..: it’s usually not good news
It’s true in literally everything. Jared Goff had a phenomenal statistical passing season last year. It suggests the offense had absolutely no issues…we all know that’s bullshit.
Caleb Williams and the bears were “him” last year in the 4th quarter. He wants the nickname iceman and we laugh at that…why? Because it’s ridiculous despite the statistics “math” support it.
This makes it “college course” worthy (and beyond what you get on Twitter, lol), but I think JD is talking about several other variables that weren’t taken into account – like :
-whether you’re trading up or down
-how great is your need
-what positions (QB, etc)
-time (2008, 2018, 2025?)
-team
-winning%
-salary cap issues,
- etc etc
(and I’ll have to check that after reading your link)
Well-said
Statistics certainly can be. But not always. Stats on social media – more often than not. Stats in the sciences - maybe half the time. People seeking the truth often use statistics to great advantage. Unfortunately, people who already have their mind made up can misuse statistics to great advantage.
Trusting your gut when you’re thoroughly educated on the topic (often via statistics) - is fine. Making statistics your master rather than your servant - As JD says — bad idea. Trusting your gut when you know nothing about the topic — you’re on your own!
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Again, I agree completely. But all of this went into the trades that were used to create the chart as well. They weren’t numbers plucked without context, it’s just that the context was already inherent within them.
Now trying to make the quantitative out of anything qualitative is inherently a difficult ask, but that is true of the Jimmy Johnson chart as well. And this whole thing started because a few people thought the Jimmy chart was better than the Rich Hill chart.
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I’ll say this…for JJ being who he is, he did an amazing job creating his chart. Because when you really break it down, going trade for trade, these aren’t that far off from each other.
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So much math.
We don’t all have a mad scientist, or Doc, to do it for us bud…
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Right - I get that all of the previous data were used to create the model. But using all the data does not mean that key aspects of the data were controlled for.
You could say tha average age of the population of the US is 38.3 - it includes all males and all females. But you didn’t control for sex. If you control for sex, you’d find out that (I’m making this up), males have an average age of 36.8, and females have an average age of 39.6. So you left out useful insights by not controlling for age.
Likewise, there could be a subset of trades where the JJ model is more accurate (other than the QB trades)
Another factor that goes into establishing trade values for individual teams will have to do with how they’re grading the classes. Theoretically speaking, trying to move up into Bucket 2 in 2026 when there’s fewer Bucket 2 players than there were for similar trades in 2015 might be more expensive in 2026, given supply and demand.
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The problem with math is that it’s based on a fiction. By fiction, I mean something that doesn’t exist. By exist, I mean something has mass/energy and can be located in the physical universe. Well, the number 5 (like all other numbers) has no mass/energy and isn’t located in the physical universe, so 5 doesn’t actually exist.
Or more precisely, math tends to mistake the Map for the Territory. The Territory is comprised of Existants. Numbers don’t exist. They are part of the Map, not the Territory.
This concludes my TED talk on the non-existence of Time.
James Brown–Living In America
https://youtu.be/c5BL4RNFr58?si=4qkfZlCxRGkatKOs
Well that is fair, and like I said, I didn’t do the research, I found someone else who did. And super in depth too. But they accounted for as many variables as possible and even tried to be as contextual as possible, as mentioned in previous posts. But as mentioned, when you are turning something qualitative into something quantitative, that is not completely possible.
But that is not why I got into this discussion. I merely responded that teams didn’t use the Jimmy Johnson chart any more. When I was told to prove it, I produced that study, showing the trades match up more closely with the Rich Hill chart.
But I was not saying they use the Rich Hill chart either. They don’t. They all have their own methods. It’s just using the Rich Hill chart is a better way to predict them, based on that study.
I would never deny a lot goes into pulling off a trade, which team it is, how great the need is, all of that. Context is hugely important. But this was not about that. It was just chart vs. chart, which performs better.
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My Brain hurts after reading all that!
All that matters is
the guy we draft after trade works out and the guy they took doesn’t.
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Oh there’s a joke in there that I’m not gonna make. 
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