The NFL significantly OVERVALUES QBs (we do in here too)!

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
1

Den,

There are now 164 plus posts debating- WHO IS AT FAULT IF GOFF SUCKS?”

The short answer is Goff!!! There is no other possible answer to that question… period!

That said- what many are trying to figure out is that IF OUR OL, WRS, RBs, AND DEFENSE ALL PERFORM AT A HIGH LEVEL AND WE WIN 6 GAMES… do we move on???

Again- clearly YES!!!

The devil is in the details though…. I doubt Jamo provides the same value in 22’ (coming off injury) that Cooks did in 18’. I also don’t quite expect R Woods level performance from Chark, and while I love ASB, it’s pretty hard to put him in C Kupp company just yet…. What about Swift vs Gurley?

Those 17 & 18’ Rams teams also had #12 and #20 defenses…. We allowed nearly 4 points a game more that 18’ Rams and 7 points more than 17’ Rams!

Hell we allowed over 7 points a game more than the 21’ Rams….

SOOOOO……

  1. If we have a healthy OL
  2. If we have a top 12 run game
  3. If we have a top 15 defense
  • THEN I EXPECT US TO WIN 11 PLUS GAMES WITH GOFF OR ANYONE WE GIVE THE KEYS TO….

Teams like NYG, Zona, Ravens etc have to make decisions this year about whether to pay those guys huge money…. Goffs salary will look like a bargain in 2 years…. If we had to pay him now or in 10 months…

I’d say 28 plus TDs, 4300 yards, 12 or less ints and 10 plus wins and a playoff win or I’m not paying him a huge 4-5 year deal…

We don’t have to make that decision…

Half the teams we all truly expect to suck have drafted a QB in the last 3-4 years.

I am not willing to play the Corral or Ridder could be the next Mahomes game… not with a 4-5 year rebuild tied the 15% or less chance it works out!

Winston
Mariotta
Goff
Wentz
RG3
Gabbert
Tannehill
Bortles
Tua
Rosen
Darnold
Trubisky
Baker
D Jones

Murray???
Lamar???

Lance
Z Wilson
Fields
Lawrence
M Jones

That’s a lot of darts spent trying to find J Allen, Mahomes, Burrow….

The safe money would say that by age 30…. The 3 superstar QB listed above might have 2, possibly 3 rings BETWEEN then….

Brady, Stafford, Rodgers, Wilson, Ryan, and Tannehill all have tough teams with every bit the shot to get there and win it.

BUILD THE BEST TEAM YOU CAN- AND IF YOU ARE ALEX SMITH AWAY FROM A SB….

Then trade 2 drafts of picks to get “the guy”….

We are so focused on not “wasting” a window on Goff, that the reality that our window doesn’t exist yet hasn’t hit most!!

E Brown, Netflix, Parker, Jacobs, Benson, Kennedy, M Nelson, Iggy, Lemonier… seriously those guys played in lots of actual nfl games.

Goff won a couple games with a preseason game 4 roster!

It was obvious the 90s Lions had talent all over the field, and Mitchell, Peete, etc were the problem.

I’ve got a 27 year old, former #1 overall pick with more playoffs wins than our entire franchise does over 55 years plus!!!

Give Goff Barry, Moore, perriman, Morton, and a defense and I bet we get a ring or SB birth…

Frankly- GOFF HAS PROVEN FAR MORE THAN DAN CAMPBELL OR HOLMES! I like everything I see from Holmes and Campbell by the way!!!

There are less than 10 humans in the world that could have gotten the 2018 Rams into that SB…. GOFF IS FACTUALLY 1…

There are less than 5-7 humans that would have won a ring last year with LA, maybe less, and Stafford is one!

5 Likes
2

Matt Stafford threw 300 yards and 2.25 TDs per game in a 4 game ride against the nfls best…. He had a 108 freaking QB rating and they slid by with 3 straight last second 3 point wins….

1 less TD or 1 more int and Rams don’t have a ring…

The issue is that Stafford, Brady, Burrow, Mahomes and Allen are no available to us…

Also- I watched Allen with Diggs and company…. I watched Brady suck on 2019- he looked done with WRs who couldn’t get open vs Titans. I watched Mahomes get killed with no protection, he looked like Harrington out there.

There is no magic wand to land a top 5 NFL QB- they don’t make many. I predict what Cleveland and Denver did was a complete waste….

Build a team, give them a sure thing at QB, get in the dance and see what happens. Once it’s clear that you have a dance worthy team, DO WAHTEVER IS NECESSARY TO UPGRADE THE LAST PIECE…

3 Likes
3

If this were easy to do, every team would do it. It’s hard to find QBs for sure, but it’s also hard to find players at other positions to build a team that’s a QB away from a Super Bowl.

And if good QBs are as rare as you say they are then wouldn’t that mean they’re undervalued? Supply and demand is an inexorable market force.

It’s not that we’re overvaluing the position of QB, it’s the most important position in all of sports. It’s almost impossible to overvalue it. Perhaps the process of obtaining a QB is flawed with all the draft busts, but like I said, that is true of most positions. And it doesn’t devalue the position any.

4 Likes
4

No it’s not…

That’s why Flacco has the same amount of rings as Rodgers

Brad Johnson as many as Drew Brees

Foles as many as Stafford

Yes the truly elite are truly rare!!! So “finding” one would seem to be a small miracle…

In the modern NFL- 25 years?

Brady
P Manning
E Manning
Big Ben

I’ve beaten this to death, but one again….

Big Ben had 2 seasons with 17 TDs each that ended with rings….

In 2007 Eli was the #25 ranked QB in passer rating while leading the league in interceptions.

Let’s be SUPER CLEAR- if Goff has a 17 TD or a 73.9 rating it will…. A) BE HIS WORST SEASON IN EITHER CATEGORY…. B) WE WOULD CALL FOR HIS HEAD AND RIGHTFULLY SO!!!

2 Likes
5

Good teams with franchise QB’s turn into dynasties, I’m sorry but the 85 Bears and the Ravens were a exception to the rule and neither was a dynasty. I mean fuck, the Packers have had 2 QB’s in the last 30 years and win the division and go to the playoffs almost every year.

2 Likes
6

Championship QB timeline this century:

2021: Stafford
2020: Brady
2019: Mahomes
2018: Brady
2017: Foles
2016: Brady
2015: P. Manning
2014: Brady
2013: Russell Wilson
2012: Flacco
2011: E. Manning
2010: Rodgers
2009: Brees
2008: Roethlisberger
2007: E. Manning
2006: P. Manning
2005: Roethlisberger
2004: Brady
2003: Brady
2002: Brad Johnson
2001: Brady
2000: Dilfer

So that’s 4 of the past 22 championship QBs who weren’t at least borderline hall-of-famers, or 18% (and if that list was past 20 years, Dilfer drops off of it, and next year Brad Johnson will too). I know Brady skews the number but it only backs up my point, elite QBs matter A LOT.

9 Likes
7

I view it differently. I think good QBs, do get ruined by the team they are drafted by. High expectations on a bad team, with a bad staff.

For a QB to excel, the vast majority need to be in a situation that is best suited to maximizing their talent.

Staffords career was nearly ruined in 12 yrs in Detroit. 1 yr away with a good HC and OC, that knew how to attack a D, and build a winner, and he wins a SB. That’s a far cry from Caldwells handcuffs, OCs like Lombardi and Cooter, 1st time OCs. What if he was drafted by a Payton, Bellichek, Reid, Harbaugh, Tomlinson, how many rings would he have?

Goff did well in the same situation making a SB, but struggled when teans adapted. McVey felt Goff was limiting his offense. Is it true? For our sake i hope not.

Rodgers sat learned behind Farve for yrs, and played in the sane scheme most of his career.

Mahomes flourished under Reid and the weapons and scheme they use.

Wilson got to rely on Lynch and a great D, until he was ready.

Brees was pretty good in San Diego, but he became Brees under Payton.

You can do this for most good QBs, very few good QBs excel under poor coaching, poor schemes, and incompetent GMs. Of course the QB has to adapt as the league figures them out.

I feel like we’ve got something with MC/DC, and Holmes. Goff could flourish, if not they’ll need to develop a QB. If that’s the case, hopefully we have the right people in place to get the most out of him.

7 Likes
8

Not all of us!
I’ve been telling everyone that will listen (not many) that football is a TEAM sport.
You need a good QB leading your TEAM, like he needs good receivers, Oline, and RB’s.
If you’re sub par in any of those areas, you’re still rebuilding.

4 Likes
9

Here’s a news flash. Only one team can win the championship every year. I get that it’s the ultimate goal for everyone, and some teams are bound to go all in and fail just based off of the chance that it takes to win the big game, but there can still be teams who accomplish a lot in a season and don’t win a championship. Winning a conference is a big deal. We should know. We’ve never done it.

That’s why it’s important to try and build a team that can compete for a long period of time. It’s like the process rebuild in a sense. The goal isn’t to roll the dice on one season where you are likely to not hit, it’s to have as many dice rolls as possible to give you a better shot at a Super Bowl.

Nothing gives you more rolls of the dice than a franchise QB. Absolutely nothing.

8 Likes
10

Literally incredible post top to bottom….

Many want to ignore facts…

Was Brees a mini dynasty? Look at his stats from 2006 to 2008… 88 TDs and 46 Ints…. 65% completions…10, 7, 8 wins…. The 2000 to 2004 Saints had almost identical results to Brees first 3 years… THEN A ONE YEAR DIP IN 2005- and a 3 win season triggered the team to go pay a huge FA contract Brees- injury risk and all…

Then take a look at Brees stats in SD that led to his Chargers drafting Rivers…. Ironically 2nd chance Brees won a SB- Rivers the elite pick did not.

2nd chance Kurt Warner made another SB and was a toe tap last second TD from another ring-

2nd chance Brady has ring with TB

2nd chance P Manning had as much success in a short time in Denver as he did in a while career in Indy-

2nd chance Stafford- won a ring in year 1 on a ready built team…

I honestly see Goff in a very similar light to what happened with Brees… let’s see if I’m right.

4 Likes
11

I don’t draw any conclusions based soley on who won the Super Bowl in a given year.

Chit happens in a single game.

In 2018… the Saints lost in the divisional round on the Minneapolis Miracle. Foles went on to win a Super Bowl. If 1 crazy play doesn’t happen… Brees or Brady might have been hoisting that trophy.

How about we add up the postseason game appearances made by Rodgers, Favre, Brees, Wilson, and any other hall of fame caliber QB with 1 Super Bowl… and compare that to Flacco, Foles, Dilfer, and Brad Johnson.

Side note—— Flacco was the starter for 6 different playoff teams and had a 10-5 postseason record. If not for 2 serious injuries… he may have remained the starter in Blatimore and added to that record.

Back on track… the other 3 “outliers” collectively went 2-8 in the playoffs when they weren’t on a completely loaded team. Let’s get real… teams like the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, and 2018 Eagles are rarely built to win with a game manager.

If anything… look at the Ravens.
They constantly have a good roster.

They have had a top 10 scoring defense 10 times out of the last 14 years since Flacco/Lamar started… and won only 7 playoff games outside of the fluke Super Bowl year. They have been the underdog in most of those games… because the QB play isn’t great.

And yes… it was a fluke.
The Broncos had the game won… but Chit happens… and they blew a coverage horribly on Jacoby Jones’ TD and it was a Mile High Miracle equivalent to me joining the mile high club with Ms. Jiggypuffs. — credit to @Weaselpuppy for that one.

Meanwhile… those 4 QBs who surprisingly only won 1 Super Bowl each… seemed to have defied odds. They should have won more… but Chit happens. They did however…. go 43-37 in the 80 postseason games they played in combined.

I’ll take 80 playoff games over 25 any day.

1 Like
12

Hit the brakes. How many players are starting and playing during a season -including Goff? you have plays interrupted or flat taken away by officials and defenders , you have OC’s that can make the wrong call or plan, you have an unknown number of injuries each season , on a team and in each game you have a number of unknown factors that happen , that in no way is THE QB’S FAULT.

Goff is responsible for : Delivering an accurate football , using correct footwork , reading defenses, decision -making with the football , reducing sacks & INT’s , watching film , getting pt with his players , knowing how much power or touch to use on each throw , cadence/timing , knowing the plays and routes per play , things each and every QB in the league MUST know and do. Goff is the mailman, HE delivers the football. HE is at fault for NOT doing his responsibilities OR making mistakes HE makes 100%. but once that ball is in the air? It’s on his team mates to make plays and do THEIR responsibilities correctly ! There is a LOT of moving parts and pieces, and role players in the games and stuff happens. Yeah if Goff f_@ks up that falls squarely on HIM alone, but that goes for thee entire team to.

1 Like
13

I don’t disagree with you brother-

Please read what you cut and posted of my post again….

IF GOFF SUCKS WHOSE FAULT IS IT? If Goff sucks it’s GOFFS FAULT… true.

If the Lions struggle, or suck, then it’s quite possible all those variables come into play….

THATS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT TOPIC…. Will the Lions, fans, regime blame Goff if we don’t dramatically improve? I hope not. I hope we can objectively gauge what Goff does vs what another QB could do in the same spot- Fields, Pickett etc.

I could careless about the 1st 8 games. Literally every player on our team looked like shit. DC looked out of his league more often than not.

Then DC took over the offense. We added an NFL level WR, and we got an experienced NFL LT back. Despite missing some pieces we galvanized as an OL.

Our D was playing as well or better with backups in the last 8-9 games, then at full-ish health week 1

Why? It took half a season to get but in, culture, scheme, scheme fit and all the changes they’ve made seem to have been for the best.

If Hutch, Williams, Paschal and Joseph amount to 1 impact player, one good starter, one solid starter and one rotational player, then it’s back to back killer drafts.

If we get a season from Elliott or Chark on par with C Harris last year, and if we find another starting player from UDFA- we are cooking with gas.

How many teams drafting top 3-5 have take a QB and won a ring with that guy in the last 15 years?

1 Like
14

Right, but these guys are on deep playoff runs every year and get multiple chances. The other guys you mention are muuuuuuch lower, in terms of even sniffing it again. How many conference title games have they been in? Playoff games?

A good QB gives you WAY more chances.
From a fan perspective → is it just as fun to have Foles as the QB as Rodgers? Same number of SB wins, right? I’d rather be deep in the playoffs and have those extra chances. Rodgers is 64 years old and still had “a window” to win another one.

Ben and Eli are GREAT examples of what you talk about. I’m hoping we can have something like that, if they stick with Goff. When we got Goff, I said “I hope he can be our Eli Manning.” I have also said, I expect MC/DC Lions to look very much like Cowher’s Steelers.

YES! Calculating the #s without including Brady as 7 of them.
Also, this data would be MORE accurate if you included SB appearances, instead of just winners. It would be amplified MORE if you saw appearances in Conference Title games. % of time legit franchise QBs go deep into playoffs is a big deal.

Then go → % of time franchise QBs go beyond wildcard round, vs % of time others do.
Then go → % of time franchise QB goes to Conference Title round vs % of time others do.
The do same for Super Bowl

fact is, Dilfer barely sniffed playoffs. Create one child, then have erectile disfunction for the rest of your life? Sex is for fun…you want ot have a lot of it, even if she doesn’t get pregnant.

I want to attract lots of chances at it.

15

these things all came into play during Stafford’s career here and he was blamed for everything still.
Goff came to a brokedick Lions team and we tried to compete…it didn’t go well , here we are. we didn’t have the team, that wasn’t on Goff. I understand that a cut & dry way of stating it is " IF Goff flops it is his fault."
I agree…IF it’s just him making said errors.

Overvalue QB’s…? The Lions have had very few. The Pack had Rodgers , The Colts had Manning , The Saints had Brees, The Pats had Brady, The Lions had Stafford and who in the past 30/40 years ?

yeah we value our QB’s , I’m not SOLD on Goff or B&B. if you ask me if Goff will be here for 12 years-I highly doubt it.

16

Eli made 6 playoff appearances in 15 years… he was one and done in all but 2 of them. Both rings.

1 Like
17

I think you are focusing on the manner of acquisition waaaayyyy too much.

Tom Brady, Payton Manning, Russ Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Matt Stafford type of veteran QBs are not going to “choose” Detroit any time soon.

If Goff doesn’t play well enough, the BEST opportunity the Lions will have to get a QB that plays well is to draft one. In recent years… particularly AFTER the rookie wage scale was implemented in 2011… more QBs are getting selected in the 1st round than ever before.

Therefore… the best way for the Lions to add a great QB is to draft a QB as early as possible.

All of the historical data with Super Bowl winners’ draft position is skewed to favor QBs drafted prior to 2011… considering that Brees, Big Ben, and the Mannings retired in recent years and Brady and Rodgers still play…and… thus… is really not relevant to the current situation in the NFL.

The chances of drafting a QB and him turning into a hall-of-famer are certainly very low… but it still is the BEST chance to have good QB play in Detroit if they need to move on from Goff.

1 Like
18

29 QBs taken top 5 overall in round one in 20 years

Eli
M Ryan
Burrow
Goff
Wentz

There is your list of guys who won or played in a SB….

Teams drafting that high are typically so bad, that they can’t overcome their deficiencies inside a rookie QB contract. Meaning they are either guys ruined by bad teams and impatient fans, or just the wrong guys?

Take a look at the list of 5 star college QB recruits over 20 years. I’ve never heard of half. Many more disappoint in college, and the bust rate once they get to the pros is worse.

19

Built the old way. “Defense wins championships.”
Super Bowls with Dilfer and Flacco prove it.

20

Yup. 2 rings is great. Do Brady….mahommes,Rodgers …Brady… it matters. A LOT.