Convenient to leave off the 90’s… when 6 Super Bowls were won by guys drafted #1 overall.
Also… if QBs are overrated… how is it that 11 of the top 12 career yardage leaders have played in a Super Bowl… 9 of them have won a Super Bowl…. and 19 of the past 26 Super Bowls have been won by one of these 12 players???
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I think QB is the most important position in all of sport so the idea that’s it’s somehow overvalued is something I will never agree with. I also think we’re getting a little too wrapped up in statistical specifics (I’m guilty as well). The Packers have been good pretty much every year since Favre and Rodgers have been there. Pittsburgh was good through the entirety of Roethlisberger’s career, Indy with Payton, the Saints with Brees, and of course New England with Brady. The Giants with Eli had a couple of down years but were in the mix every year for the most part.
I said in an earlier post I’m not anti-Goff. I think you can win a Super Bowl with him if everything goes right. But how often do things go right? What I want is a guy who thrives even when everything goes wrong like Joe Burrow (9 sacks) or Josh Allen. And until we find him, I won’t stop looking. That doesn’t mean drafting a guy when there’s no one to draft - I WAS anti-the 2022 QB draft class - but always have an eye open.
The team around the QB matters of course. Even superstar QBs can’t do anything if their receivers drop perfect passes. But a great QB gives you much more margin for error.
BREAKING NEWS……
The rules have changed since 2013.
Pass interference, hitting QBs, landing on QBs, rookie wage scale. All different.
Ravens are 2-5 in the playoffs in past 10 years.
Chiefs are 8-3 in the past 4 years with Mahomes… and the defense ranked 15th or worse in every year (31st, 17th, 16th, 27th)… and they gave up 25 points per game in the playoffs while winning those 8 games.
Let’s be super duper clear brother….
I know QB is important. I also know that Goff is on pace to be a top 15 passing yardage leader all time by age 33…
He was also a #1 overall pick
He was a guy in the playoffs in 3 of 4 years, and he played in a SB…
My point is how rarely drafting a QB in the top 5 results in 12-14 years of competitive football and multiple playoff runs.
Goff would have been deep into the playoffs last year in LA had it not been so toxic with McVay. The team added a better RB, WR help and Von Miller to the team that won in the playoffs last year. And they got Guthrie hall of fame LT back
[Nerd Warning:] If you were really trying to compute a mean then you’d take the highest and lowest outliers off the plot. I’m gonna say, Brady and Dilfer. Then you get a more accurate read of what’s “normal.”
Doing so, the data still backs your point that elite QB play matters but instead of mattering 66.7% of the time, the mean is more like 54% of the time.
So, objectively, just over half the time, an elite QB wins the SB if you’re not Tom Brady breaking the curve. And just under half the time a so-so QB wins the SB if you’re not Trent Dilfer.
The man put up 58 points against the Chiefs. He’ll be fine
The funniest part of this is ignoring the fact that Goff is already in the playoffs almost every year, shot a ring already, and proven pro bowl caliber passer…
Look at his stats in 2017 and 2018- he’s far more Brees or Rodgers than Dilfer or Foles…
I can’t believe this is still a thread.
You’re saying the prevailing wisdom of the league regarding QBs, over the course of decades and backed by stacks of evidence, is wrong because of … Joe Flacco.
You need a really good to elite QB to win in today’s NFL. Virtually all of 2021 was a testament to that. I’m not going to bother going through the QBs in all of the recent Super Bowls or conference championships because I did that already.
I don’t want to build a great team only to eventually get my ass kicked by Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert or Deshaun Watson or Dak Prescott. You can probably add Trevor Lawrence to that list next year.
Write this down: Kirk Cousins will never win a Super Bowl. Ever. Neither will Jimmy G. Or Carson Wentz. Or Ryan Tannehill.
Where is Goff in that conversation? Just asking the question. You tell me. All I’m saying is we need a gamer.
There’s a reason teams do all they can to get their QB position right, and it’s not because they’re morons who haven’t figured it out.
There isn’t a friggin Joe Burrow- hasn’t been since P Manning frankly….
Mahomes and J Allen- neither was the top rated QB in their own draft-
Dak is turning 29
Watson is about to turn 27
Herbert is 24
Josh Allen is turning 26 in 2 weeks
So in about 18 combined NFL seasons they have a COLLECTIVE 5 PLAYOFF WINS- no SB appearances
Goff alone has 3 in 6 years and one was the project team he was placed on last year….
M Ryan- he has won 4 playoff games in 14 years and has a SB….
Can we please see Dak, Watson, or Herbert consistently make the playoffs and win a game or two before anointing them?
Yup - Also. % of times in playoffs? That would be a great stat. Allen will be in the playoffs ever year, which gets him extra trips to the plate…more chances for home runs.
Mahommes → I’d bet he’s played 2 playoff games/year average (or more) in his career, including SB appearances already.
There will be more examples that exemplify the same principle to a lesser degree.
Jim Kelly
John Elway
Joe Montana
There are more guys like that too.
Even with the numbers presented →
This is telling…of 29 taken, 5 in SB (Eli twice…so 6 appearances). That’s over one in 6 chance. Look ate 2nd round picks and I’d be willing to bet those chances drop much more dramatically…maybe 1 in 20? 1 in 30?
Like I said, look up number of playoff games…# of playoff games/year…I’m guessing the numbers get more skewed, the more you dig.
Top flight QB is very important.
With exception of Detroit’s past front offices, I’ll stand behind this statement. LOL
We have one
Goff should be 2-3 in the playoffs… if not for one of the worst missed calls in NFL playoff history.
His 2 wins came on the strength of the running game. Without the missed PI call… he would have 1 playoff game with over 240 yards passing.
He is young. He has potential.
He is not a top 10-12 QB at this time.
Where’s Stafford? Also Wentz didnt play he was hurt, Foles was the QB.
@Lyonfan1 your whole defense asks for stats that don’t exist yet because of the youth of the current wave of elite QBs that have taken over the AFC.
I’m just glad that Mahomes, Allen, Watson, Burrow, Jackson, Herbert, and Wilson are all in the other conference for the forseeable future.
Quite possibly. He’s fringe, so far (Just my opinion).
I think he can do it…said that before. Will he?
I feel a franchise QB is necessary.
What is the difference between Franchise and Elite? 100 guys will give you 100 different answers. I just want someone badass enough to lead the troops.
I like that SF Still has an OK guy on the roster, should lance fail. If they have ot move on from Lance, they still have Gerrappolottie.
We already have a guy in that 1 of 5/6 pan out category.
Maybe on door #3, the Jags got it right? If not they pick top 5 another 5 years?
Clearly no team who took a QB last year knows for sure what they have yet? So when 3 of the 5, maybe 4 have sub 85 ratings again this year? What if 2-3 have 75 or less ratings?
Truly what do the Bears, Jets, or 49ers do if/when they win 5 games this year, or have shitty individual years?
What do phins do if they win 6-7 games and Tua doesn’t throw 25 plus tds?
Do they run it back again in 2023?
I think he’s in LA, probably thronging footballs at some Canadian Geese that flew south for the winter, or bangin’ his wife.
I’d call Stafford an outlier in a couple of ways → 1. he’s an outlier that breaks the norm because he was drafted into hell.
2. he’s a borderline Elite/Franchse QB
Rank the Lions and you’ll explain that to yourself. 
After next season, Stafford will move WAY up the ranks.
If he plays for another 2-3 years, EVERYONE will stop with the “where’s Stafford” talk…it is already proving to be a silly convo, imo. Dude is and always was a stud.
I really like this example. They have had TONS of draft capital for a few years now. I thought they were gonna build a superteam the way Brad has…nooope.
They flopped on their QB pick. I am behind doing whatever it takes, even if you have to go for 2 in 3 drafts, or have a Goff and a Willis on the roster.
Brad has shown TREMENDOUS respect to Goff.
We don’t even have a backup. They talk about “land of opportunity,” and “We don’t care where you were drafted,” etc. I’d think that would apply to QB too.
I must have misread something, or read the wrong post, wouldn’t be the 1st tome, lol
Thought he was listing the QBs picked top 5 in the past 20 yrs to make or win a SB. Didn’t see Stafford. Guess i need to read this again, lol
