Tigers vs Orioles: July 27-29

The Den
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Matchup: Tigers (50-56) vs. Baltimore (51-55); series opener.

First pitch: 6:40 p.m. Monday, July 27; Comerica Park, Detroit.

TV/radio: Detroit SportsNet; WXYT-FM (97.1), WDTW-AM (1310; Spanish only).

Probable starters: Tigers – RHP Keider Montero (7-5, 3.14 ERA); Orioles – RHP Kyle Bradish (7-9, 3.49).

Montero will be followed by RHP Troy Melton on Tuesday (against RHP Dean Kramer).

On Wednesday, Tarik Skubal could make his final start at Comerica Park as a Tiger; he’ll face Orioles lefty Trevor Rodgers in the series finale ahead of the Tigers’ first off day of the second half – after a run of 13 games in 13 days – on Thursday.

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Good article on some nuances of Skubal trade. Impact of Tigers being over the threshhold dropping the comp pick to after the 4th round if they don’t trade him. They could trade someone to get under that threshhold but…

Sirius GM show yesterday talked about the Tigers rn differential being fifth best which is usually a precursor to a very good playoff team. Well, til you add in the Tigers pen as it currently sits

How did this series impact Tigers trade deadline plans?

Well, it certainly didn’t help. A sweep would have been fantastic. Three wins would have been palatable. But a split against a bad team missing its superstar?

Ugh. What a huge, wasted opportunity.

The Tigers had the lead late Saturday and lost. Another lead in the late innings on Sunday, another loss. That’s not what you need when you are trying to climb out of a hole. The Tigers are still six games back of the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central.

In normal circumstances, that would seem daunting. But it’s not in this year of AL mediocrity.

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Can the Tigers keep Skubal, keep everybody else and just buy?

As things stand right now, that approach doesn’t seem likely.

If the Tigers keep Skubal only to make a qualifying offer and lose him in free agency on a contract worth more than $50 million – yeah, can we all just agree that’s a certainty – as the rules are right now, they would get a compensatory pick in the 2027 MLB Draft between the first and second rounds.

Only there’s a hitch. The Tigers are up against the luxury tax threshold. If they are over the line – the Tigers are believed to be $1.643 million over, per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors – the compensatory pick would be after the fourth round.

“One thing that hasn’t been focused on quite as much but stands as a pivotal component of the entire decision: the Tigers’ luxury tax status,” Adams wrote on July 22. “The Tigers as things currently stand, look as though they’ll receive the lesser of those two compensation packages.”

Is there any way around that?

Yes. If the Tigers keep Skubal, they could trade somebody else – in essence, dumping a salary, just to stay under the luxury tax to get a higher comp pick (and more than $2 million in bonus pool money, a sizable figure when trying to go over slot to dissuade picks from opting for college).

So, I don’t think there is any chance they would simply stand pat.

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They should win both series – the A’s and O’s are a combined 21 games under .500. with a minus-139 run differential. (Granted, much of that is the Athletics’ fault, at 17 under and minus-125, respectively.) The Tigers, of course, are six games under .500 (and a game behind Baltimore in the wild-card chase), but with a +28 run differential that’s fifth-best in the AL.

But I think the number of wins is the wrong question. The real question is, how many games can the Tigers trail in the wild-card race to make you think they still have a shot?

If they crap out this week and go on a losing streak, sure, trade Skubal. Get the best haul possible.

I don’t see that happening.

I seriously think this team can make a run and make the playoffs. In my ideal world, I hope the Tigers figure out a way to keep him and add an arm and get a bat and go for it.

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I truly don’t think it’s been decided yet. I don’t think Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris knows yet. Because he doesn’t know all of the facts. He doesn’t know exactly the Tigers’ situation will be in a week, when the deadline arrives at 6 p.m. Aug. 3. Or what offers he might get as teams get desperate.

There’s a whole bunch of moving, ever-changing parts.

If Harris does know, he has played this situation perfectly by sending out a multitude of signals. Some national folks think he will trade Skubal. Some think he’s gonna sell and buy. Some aren’t even trying to guess. And the uncertainty gives him the power and leverage. Harris has the biggest trade chip in MLB and no one thinks he’s desperate. That’s a great place to start.

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The same GM show discussed the Dodgers and their desire to be one of the greatest MLB teams winning three WS in a row. What deadline deal does the most to improve the odds, beyond where they already are: Skubal.

If they truly want to be one of the greatest then getting Skubal is a must.

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What I would give for a Detroit team to have this mentality…

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https://x.com/i/status/2081490900186796113

Thank goodness we didn’t trade Max Anderson or someone we don’t need for actual bullpen help at the deadline last year.

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Well, problem is RP is volatile always has been, more so in Detroit, lol.

Look at FInnegan last year and then this year.

I don’t disagree with your point at all, just saying even if we had done this, no guarantee that it would have a positive impact on this season.

For some reasons putting on that English D uniform dooms RP’s over the last 20years.

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The elite of the elite RPs are usually less volatile though, and that’s what we’ve needed here for a very long time. Several of those guys moved at the deadline last year.

Just because some type of acquisition didn’t work for us in the past doesn’t mean it was bad process, or that we shouldn’t try again.

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https://x.com/i/status/2081377797482656078

You surrendered at the deadline last year when you acquired 42 year old Charlie Morton for some reason. It’s going to take an actual good acquisition to convince a portion of the fanbase you’re not “surrendering.”

Trading Skubal is the right move, but other than that, no more of the crap from last year.

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It is. It sucks. But reality isn’t always your friend.

comedy central GIF

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With Lee emerging, I wonder if we trade Gleybor.

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That defeats the purpose of making a move. why trade away one of the best hitters for the postseason?

If they want to go for a “playoff run” they need to trade away prospects the tigers WONT need in the near future.

Clark, Anderson, Rainer, Briceno, are off the table. Tigers are gonna need them after the lockout,

Everyone else is fair game. But the RIGHT move is trade away Skubal AND torres for a total of 4-5 prospects that will be ready in 28 or 29.

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Anderson definitely isn’t off the table, its an area of strength for them.

For the right return none of the prospects should be off the table as much as I would prefer to keep Clark.

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Read the article – to get under the tax and get a much better draft pick. Lee is better than Gleybor right now, and if he keeps it up, will be in the future. If we’re playing the long game, its a fair move. If you’re banking on passing five teams in front of us with no bullpen, then yeah. Oh, I forgot the BP is not our problem.

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So what would you want if the brewers made a trade offer for Skubal and same from LAD?

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If things progress as expected, Anderson is on the outside looking in. He could certainly be used in a trade package.

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I’ll just be glad when August 4th rolls around.

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Based on history this year, if we keep Skubal for the rest of this season:

He pitches 6 innings and leaves with a 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 lead because we can’t hit. Our BP (which in Detroit should stand for Batting Practice), implodes……AGAIN and the Tigers lose another one. Tiger miss the playoffs, Skubal leaves and we get nothing for him.

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So who supplants Anderson? Gleybar, McKinstry? Lee is our best hitting second basemen right now. I think Anderson has the chance better than all of them. But I get your point. For some reason Anderson has never been respected enough by the Tigers organization. Seems to me they’ve never had a plan for him. Hitting .308. OPS near .900 but Tigers want to call up everyone but him. Lee was hitting less than .250 and got called up. And keeping Anderson at Toledo over McKinstry is such a Tigers thing to do.

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I’m kind lost on what your point is here. My “current” vision for our infield ‘28 and beyond is….

Briceno - 1B

Lee - 2B

Rainer - SS

McGonigle - 3B

Things could certainly change if Rainer doesn’t develop the way we need him to. But if he does it seems to me that Anderson is the odd man out.

Adding Gleybar into the conversation is confusing me. I do not believe Gleybar is part of the future here. And with mentioning McKinstry are you saying that Anderson is our future Utility guy?

What do you see as Anderson’s future with the Tigers?

And remember, we still have Keith in the coversation for a potential infield role as well.