Trade down is SOOOOO unlikely

This is what the Giants, with two top 10 picks, should do according to one sports writer.
Bottom line - EVERYONE is looking to trade down and defer first round picks to 2023.
We really picked a chitty year to have 2OA.

This reminds me of a couple years ago where you had to pay to get rid of a barrel of oil.

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Yep. Was listening to Cowherd who is pretty plugged in and he said that according to virtually every industry source that EVERYONE wants to trade down and that teams in the back end of round 1 are giddy about the talent level down there. So the bad news is that it’s not such a great year to have number two overall but the good.news is that it’s a great year to have 32 and 34. Three day one impact starters is very possible if we execute on the picks.

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Trade downs sound amazing on message boards. But, executing them in reality is extremely difficult.

You see trade ups for QB’s fairly often. But, those type of QB’s aren’t in this draft. When was the last time a team traded up into the top 5 for a non QB!?

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See, first you have to trade your next three 1sts to move up… THEN trade three 2nds to move back up into the 1st… THEN trade that pick for your original three 1st round picks… And a special teams player… It’s easy

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It definitely sucks to be picking high in a class viewed as short on elite talent (as seems to be the case almost every time the Lions pick high for some reason). But I think we all need to get over this predefined idea of what a #2 pick ought to look like, and all the reasons why the guys who will be available don’t fit the bill. Even in a class like this, the only advantage of drafting lower in the first than higher is that there’s less of a financial commitment. But given the rookie wage scale, it’s just not that big of a deal anymore. Even if the guy we take at 2 flames out, it’s not like he will destroy our cap for the next five years, the way it used to be. Just grab the best player there.

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Billy
Barry
Suh
Stafford
Calvin

I’d say we’ve had our share of talent at the top of the draft.

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What if they all played on the same team at the same time, could we win a playoff game you think!?

It’s not that good since you are going back 4 decades.

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i actually think our best option for trading down is someone who wants a blue chip tackle. this draft is deep in DE, WR, and weak on QB. If someone needs a Neal or Ekwonu, that might be the best opportunity

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If you replace Scott Mitchell with Caldwell’s Stafford, they win multiple playoff games.

You put Barry on the 2014 thru 2017 teams, they win multiple playoff games.

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Fair, but for a team as consistently crappy as ours, we’ve had our share of weak ass first rounds. Harrington and Okuda of course coming immediately to mind. Okudah especially, as it seems like this year is the same damn scenario repeating itself. Good news is that if we stay at two and just grab the best defender on the board at least it will be an edge with blue chip talent or possibly an elite safety.

Yknow, it looks that way, until…

Andre Ware
Bryant Westbrook forgot he was 5OA didnt yall just like
Ziggy was
Charles Rogers
Okudah
Ernie Sims
Ebron
Hock

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Yeah I don’t see a trade down.

The irony of people saying “if only there were an elite QB, maybe teams would trade up…”

Umm… I’m pretty sure if there was a stud QB sitting there at 2 the Lions would draft him lol

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I don’t think it’s so unlikely.

Seattle, Atlanta and Carolina need a QB and Willis is in their range. Houston has Mills, his fragile knees and draft capital, so they are a factor in this chicken game of waiting too. Seattle has plenty of draft capital and Atlanta has enough to make it happen. The closer we get to the draft, the more FOMO becomes a factor in Willis as the next Josh Allen.

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If you strip away all the narratives and just look at the sheer, historical numbers, every team, every year, has less than a 1% chance of trading down in the 1st round.

It’s slightly higher at the very top but not by much, but it’s also almost completely limited to one position: QB. So this year it’s slightly lower due to the lack of a QB.

Now if this talk about Willis is true (I still lean towards it being media drivel), then our chances have probably increased by like a % point. But it’s still a very low chance.

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There is hope
But I doubt the hope is real ., :man_shrugging:

Willis to Atlanta if it happens. Atlanta kid. Fits what I believe Smith looks for. A franchise that’s really needing to juice up it’s fan base and sell tickets.

That’s the most likely scenario to me too, but I still don’t like our chances. We’re not the only spot they could trade up to.

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Unless the Zach Wilson roll to your left and throw a bomb effect does it’s thing. Come on, Pro Day. Cause some irrational exuberance. Pretty please.

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Nothing’s impossible, but as OP said, it’s very unlikely. If a trade down were to happen, it’s probably before or after us. The fact that every fan is clamoring for a trade-down tells all you need to know. There probably isn’t a guy worth trading up for lol