Three wins is a possibility given the state of the franchise. But putting it at the very low end and maybe a 25% chance of fruition. With that being said, I’d be hard pressed to bet on anything over five wins.
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It doesn’t even seem fair when you underhand pitch them in like this…
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LOL - Love it
I think your wrong in order to judge this HC an staff you need to look at the whole season not just win .lost record his first year.
This team is not a normal first year team ,they know the season will be rough .
This season is like a audition. Your use to new staff selling farm to get some wins, this group its not going to follow the past.
You can look as many years back as you want.
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I’m with @Air2theThrown on this one.
In the absence of a Goff injury, losing 13+ games ought not happen.
The league is constructed for parity. It’s nearly impossible to have a roster so bad that decent coaching can’t get it to 5-6 wins. To be in the <4 win category requires a bad roster, total boobery coaching, and usually some bad luck, too.
No one is talking about “selling the farm” for wins. Many of us are talking about having reasonably high expectations for a new coaching staff. The last 20-ish years of history shows that a coaching staff has to be winning consistently by year 2 if they’re ever going to win, and that usually requires making some serious gains in year 1.
How the team plays is more important than the record this year, but I just can’t imagine a scenario where 3 or 4 wins this year feels like success in any meaningful way.
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Let me make two points here please.
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Your entitled to your opinion like everyone else. But my statement really wasn’t a right or wrong type of statement.
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I’m not judging the coaching staff. I am just stating the obvious facts.
I made a statement and I used the word “likely” which means “probably true.” I formed an opinion based on facts and history. Here is what I said.
This is an opinion based statement based off facts.
My opinion is that if this HC doesn’t win a SB then we hired the wrong HC.
History tells us what the most likely outcome will be if he has just 3 wins like suggested above. That is that it’s “most likely” he will fail to win a SB.
I then gave you the only two examples (I can think of) where the HC did poorly year one and turned it around to win a SB.
History has shown that it is very rare for a good coach to have a terrible first year (less than 5 wins) and still turn it around. Those are the facts.
It appears that you believe that this new HC will fail in year one and yet still succeed at winning a SB. Which would make him the only HC to do it since Jimmy Johnson. (Unless I’m missing someone) Which is clearly possible because it’s been done before but it’s “unlikely” based on recent facts and history.
No opinion is right or wrong here but the facts and history show us what the most likely (or probable) outcome will be if he only manages 3 wins this year.
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3 wins would be a very disappointing season.
When looking back at the 2001-2002 seasons, when the Lions went 2-14 and 3-13 with a new coaching regime, the Lions were mostly devoid of talent, particularly on the offensive side. But one of the main factors in both teams demise was turnovers. The 2001 team had 38 turnovers and the 2002 team had 31 turnovers.
Mariucci’s 2003 team had 28 turnovers. Mariucci’s 2004 team started well with a 4-1 record in games the Lions won the turnover battle with 2 losses where they were in the negative.
In the remaining 9 games, they won the turnover battle once (won that game) and won one where turnovers were even.
Two losses were even and the other 5 losses were in the negative.
If the Lions are 3-14 bad, it’s probably because the team is undisciplined and error prone. I don’t see that happening, but if it did, 2021 would be a definite disappointment.
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I don’t think a harsh reality check.is needed. I think most know that the Lions are going to suck like they’ve never sucked before. The best we can hope for is that they go from suck to blow.
In all seriousness, it’s nice to go into a season with zero expectations but also with a fresh, new group of coaches and players with a different energy. A lot of it has to do with moving Stafford too. As long as Stafford was here, the outlook was in limbo. Now they have a clear direction similar to a lot of the Detroit teams. It’s refreshing.
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Why do you feel that way?
I think this roster has more talent then people give credit for. I think if Matt P. and the worst defense in NFL history can get more than 5 wins 2 out of 3 seasons than a good coach should be able to do at least that in year one. Don’t you?
5+ wins is not an unreasonable expectation. Good coaching alone should get you there.
Almost every season some team goes from worst to first in their division…. the most common denominator when that happens is a new HC takes over and coaching improves.
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I agree …. To add on your turnover point.
The Lions were -9 in turnover ratio last year. They just were very good at generating turnovers.
The biggest reason for that is that we really didn’t get much pressure on the QB and the QB’s had all day. Also we played a ton of man coverages. It’s harder to make INT’s in man coverages. It’s far easier in zone.
I expect that turnover ratio to improve drastically with a better DL, and Dom Capers style of blutz packages. I also expect to see more zone coverages which should help us create more picks.
I just don’t think 5+ is hard to do with improved coaching. 3 wins would be a serious disappointment to me to.
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If this team pulls off a 3-win season, the whole “biting kneecaps” jargon is going to get really old really fast.
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I bet we’ll have three wins before the end of October. I think we show something early, fade and rally late. Finish at 6 or 7 wins. I also think we pull a couple surprising upsets.
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Jimmy Johnson comes to mind…but I don’t know of any others off the top of my head.
In a way, this season will be someone reminiscent of 1999. That was the first season without superstar, All Pro, HOF RB Barry Sanders. The Lions will be without Stafford starting the season for the first time in 12 years.
Although a considerable underdog, in the 1999 opener, the Lions traveled to Seattle with their primary RBs being Cory Schlesinger and Ron Rivers. Sledge had a career high 10 carries for a career high 50 yards that day. Rivers had a career high 96 yards on 16 carries. Crowell caught a couple of TD passes and the Lions were able to overcome a bad throw by Batch (after the Lions took possession on a safety no less), for a pick 6 INT to hold out for a 28-20 win.
Seahawks won the AFC West that year with a 9-7 record. After starting 8-4, the Lions finished 8-8.
I think the Lions relative success without Sanders was a surprise, particularly after finishing 5-11 with Sanders in 1998.
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Tom Landry, Bill Belichick, Bill Parcells, Dick Vermeil… It doesn’t happen a ton, but enough that I don’t think you can call it an outlier. You could also say it doesn’t happen in today’s NFL, but if a few bounces had gone the 49ers way a couple of years ago, Kyle Shanahan’s name would be on that list too.
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I hope the team sees more and more of these cellar dwellers stories. Load up the chips on the shoulders.
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“How 'bout them Lions?!!”