yup… but now that they are due to pay him waaayyy more money… he has a better chance to win a Super Bowl according to this article.
2 Likes
So if we paid Goff then his chances of winning a Superbowl would go up?
1 Like
a round one QB is batshit crazy unless your trying to replace Jared Goff, a back up QB makes a lot of sense. because we cannot depend on Sudfeld.
2 Likes
He is assessing the value of taking a QB in round 1. His point is that QBs are overvalued and overdrafted in round 1, and the stats bear that out. The fact that two 2nd round guys and a 3rd round guy (twice) made the Super Bowl only emphasises his point. Teams overdraft QBs in round 1. That’s it. That’s the analysis and the conclusion. He isn’t talking about later rounds, he isn’t talking about the advantage of a rookie contract, simply 1st round picks and what their teams achieve while they’re on their rookie deal.
Why is he only talking about 1st round QBs? Because they have the highest opportunity cost, the highest expectations to be starters and high level players, and sometimes also come with an additional cost in terms of picks used to trade up for the pick.
The takeaway is that teams need to find the right QB, be it in the draft or a vet, someone who outperforms the average level of players with similar contracts. Teams should not draft a QB in the 1st round just because they can, and they need to avoid the tendency to overdraft QBs because they’re desperate or have unrealistic expectations.
1 Like
No team picks a QB in the 1st round on a whim.
They all think they are drafting a guy that can become the franchise QB.
The most likely avenue to landing a franchise QB…
is to draft a QB in the 1st round.
Outside of a few veterans that moved to different franchises for various reasons… drafting and grooming a QB is the best way to have stability at the position… and the odds are clearly better with 1st round picks.
Simply looking at Super Bowl wins over a 12 year stretch isn’t a convincing argument.
So… once again… the article points out that thos QBs have about a .500 win percentage…. but he didn’t say how well teams do with non-1st rounders and UFAs like Teddy Bridgewater.
Also… those win-loss records don’t factor in that teams play 1st round picks immediately at times when they shouldn’t… while some players like Jalen Hurts don’t start immediately because he wasn’t a 1st round pick.
Exactly. Which is the real point of his article.
He’s beating the drum for QB needy teams to bring in Lamar rather than using their 1st round pick on a rookie QB.
1 Like
Yep, which is why his entire argument fails.
Don’t draft a 1st round QB because the odds say he will never get you to a super bowl.
Bring in Lamar instead…who has never taken a team to a super bowl. (But will cost a whole heck of a lot more in money and draft capital).
The articles premise makes no sense at all IMO.
4 Likes
In the last 30 Super Bowls at least 1 of the QBs was a 1st round pick 25 times.
3 Likes
The article cited in the OP tried to cherry pick a time frame…
and even ignored the fact that a guy like Mahomes playing several years on a rookie deal still saved his team money that helped when the 2022 team was constructed…. but I think that salary cap management part was a little above the author’s understanding of how the cap works.
3 Likes
The entire thing is turning bizarro. The article is cherry picked but then the OP wants it to say something that it doesn’t. Which is just making things awkward. 
4 Likes
Wait, that team just had the benefit of 4 to 5 years of not having to pay a quarterback market value in turn saving $20-$30 million in cap each year. To me that has everything to do with having a rookie quarterback either on his rookie deal or just off it.
The cap has historically increased substantially each year so by the time that quarterback is off his rookie deal they can still fit him under the cap easily.
So in reality he’s correct, it’s true but it’s conveniently omitting some very important truths.
Or am I missing something?
Are you guys just messing with me here?
It’s not a cherry picked timeframe. Before 2011 the rookie wage scale didn’t exist. Guys like Stafford came into the league on huge salaries. There was no cap benefit to having a rookie QB for any player drafted before 2011. You can’t analyse the impact of a cheap rookie deal for players that didn’t have a cheap rookie deal. That’s not Patricia science ffs.
The first part of the article analyses how teams perform over a first round QB’s rookie contract. During those four or five years, those teams make the playoffs 19% of the time, which is waaaaaay behind the 43% of teams that make the playoffs every year. The average time one of those QBs spends with the team that drafts him is 3.8 years. They bust at a high rate, and they win at a low rate.
The very clear conclusion is that QBs are overdrafted in round 1, and that teams that do that don’t see any benefit from his lower salary during his first contract.
That’s it. It’s been pretty clear in my posts, and it’s pretty clear in the article. You guys have imagined some different point involving later picks, and guys drafted outside the window of cheap rookie contracts. That’s what’s bizarro.
And even more bizarro is the idea that Mahomes’ rookie deal helped the Chiefs pay for the team in 2022. I can’t even begin to understand how anyone can come to that conclusion. You don’t realise cap savings two years down the line, that is for sure.
It’s pretty clear neither of you read it.
1 Like
This is a counternarrative I’ve been beating for a long time. The bust rate gets even worse when you weed out the sure thing QBs that come along every few years - Luck, Newton, Burrows from this time frame.
Teams should always be trying to find QBs and sometimes you will luck into someone who is great or maybe just good enough, like Hurts or Wilson, or maybe you find an opportunity to get your guy like Rodgers or the Chiefs did with Mahomes. Or otherwise try to reclaim a QB who has been thrown away like Goff, Brees, Cousins, Tannehill, Palmer, Warner, Geno Smith. Those guys are out there every single year.
But other than that, build a Super Bowl roster then instead of wasting picks taking a rookie, go out and use those picks on a veteran who can get you over the top like the Rams did with Stafford, like the Broncos and Browns are currently attempting. Might be a disaster, but no more of a disaster than reaching for a QB who ends up busting, and your likelihood of success is much higher.
At the end, much more depends on management and coaching than who is under center in any case.
I don’t think the Lions should be in the market for Jackson (or Rodgers) but I do think teams that are ready to win like the Jets and Tampa absolutely should be.
1 Like
Having a QB on a rookie contract doesn’t just help the team in the specific years his cap hit is low… it enables a tram to field a competitive team in the present… without pushing a lot of the cap hits into the future.
This would be the opposite of what the Saints had to do with Drew Brees or any other team that restructured a veteran QB to push that cap hit into future years.
Therefore… when Pat Mahomes was making rookie wages in 2018 & 2019…. the Chiefs were NOT pushing QB money ino future seasons with restructures….
and …
with the structure….
and that helped them build the roster for years after he signed his extension…. he only counted $12.8 million against the cap…
for BOTH 2020 & 2021… combined!!!
.
.
So…. yes… Mahomes’ contract absolutely helped the Chiefs field a very good team around him for the last 4 seasons.
Oh man. When Darnold was on rookie wages the Jets weren’t pushing QB money into future years. And Mayfield. And Rosen. Etc. This is the point of studying all qualifying QBs. Some do well, some don’t do well. The stats show that Mahomes is a huge outlier in his achievements on his rookie deal. In statistics, you absolutely don’t draw conclusions from outliers.
Oh man, oh man. In 2021 he restructured his deal to push a chunk into the future. Individual cap numbers for a single year are meaningless, they can be made to be almost anything. Watson’s cap number is $19m this year, is he saving the Browns money?! Hell no, lol.
[quote=“HiFidelity, post:53, topic:22610, full:true”]
At the end, much more depends on management and coaching than who is under center in any case.
[quote=“HiFidelity, post:53, topic:22610, full:true”]
I think you nailed it with this sentence and it’s why I, and so many here, have so much confidence in Detroit, for most, it’s the first time in a long time.
They have a plan and are following it, if that includes a QB in the first round great.
They are building a roster that includes a very good, top ten, QB in the NFL and have the ability to add one if a guy they love is there.
Darnold is an example of how taling a rookie QB doesn’t leave a team in bad cap situation… and now the Jets are loaded with young talent and able to sign free agents.
That example actually makes more of a statement that it is a good idea to draft a QB… because it doesn’t cripple a team if they don’t turn out to be good. The risk is minimal… the reqard is huge!
And… I am well aware that Mahomes restructured to lower those cap numbers… and he will continue to do the same thing in years to come. That is the benefit of drafting a young QB as well… because if they do become the franchise guy… a team can kick that cap hit sown the road for a decade or more.
1 Like
I truly don’t understand the Richardson hype. His passing is terrible. It’s like what if Calvin Johnson had told everyone he was a QB? Would he have got this hype and more? I mean certainly he should be able to throw a football as good as Richardson does right?
2 Likes
Agree. Even his ballyhooed pro day. He did dazzle with his arm strength but didn’t show great accuracy when he threw the short and intermediate stuff. Then did a bunch of flips and split
This accuracy chart is telling
2 Likes
Exactlyyyyyyy this is what I’ve been saying on here for some time now… I always mention this, your best chance to compete consistently is to take the high upside guy you can develop. It’s worth the risk. Drafting a bust at QB doesn’t set a franchise back as much as drafting a mid QB. People freak out at Zach Wilson being awful but the Jets can just move on now. Meanwhile the Patriots are entering QB purgatory with a guy that’s just good enough to not move on from for a long time.
1 Like