We are actually rooting for the Cowboys to WIN. Strange? Yes, its anti-intuitive, (in fact I was going to post that there is a bug in the playoff machine), but here is the logic:
If we beat the Cowboys, we want the Cowboys to win the NFC East. Because we will own the head-to-head tiebreaker over them. If the Eagles win the NFC East, we have a lower chance of winning that tiebreaker.
So, if we lose to Minny two weeks from now, but beat the Cowboys, then our overall chance of the two seed is 46%.
If Dallas beats Miami, they’re more likely to win the East, so our chance at the two seed goes up to 53%.
If Dallas loses to Miami, then Philly is more likely to win the East, so our chance at the two seed goes down to 38%.
I know that this is only one scenario, but its to our advantage if we’re tied with Dallas rather than Philly.
If we lose to Dallas, nothing matters, its almost impossible to get the two seed.
Its going to be hard, but I’m rooting for the Cowboys.
The Lions control their destiny for the #2 seed so it doesn’t matter what the Cowboys (outside of the Lions game) and the Eagles do.
I’m rooting for Dallas because I want to see Buffalo win that division.
So if I have this right, a Lions win in Dallas and a Philly loss in one of their next two games clinches the Lions the 2 seed regardless of the outcome in Detroit week 18?
Not exactly. If that happens, it goes to strength of victory. We have an advantage over Philly, but its not a done deal until all the games are played. Tampa, Atlanta, GB and Chicago winning today really helped.
