I remember the big thread we had in the offseason last year about the Eagles and I think it’s high time we start talking about actual football.
So what will it take to beat the Chiefs?
Well for one we have to contain Mahomes. We won’t stop him, I don’t think anyone can, but he can be frustrated. I’m thinking of what the Bengals did to him in the AFC championship game a couple of years back. They did that mostly be rushing 3 but I think the key thing is to take him by surprise. Will be a great test right out of the gate for AG.
Kelce will be a problem though. Unless maybe Jack has his coming out party on national television in week 1? He’s a savant in zone, but so is Kelce. Plus he’s got the ten years of experience.
The rest of their offensive weaponry doesn’t really scare me. Pacheco’s an elite try hard guy but it’s the threat of Mahomes that really makes him work. Toney’s a freaky athlete who’ll run the wrong way on a route. We know what MVS brings to the table. Watch out for Justyn Ross who’s apparently healthy and looking good in camp. Mahomes seems to really like him.
On defense Chris Jones is the major problem. I really hope Ragnow’s toe is feeling good that game. It should be since it’s the first game of the season. They also have really good LBs and a young secondary that played pretty well last year. That said if they try and cover Gibbs with Willie Gay (their coverage LB), it’s not gonna work. They’ll need to bring a safety up and that should open up the back end.
Anyway thoughts? I thought it would be nice to have actual football to talk about during the offseason. I think we have a pretty good shot of going there and stunning them to start off the year. If you have to play the Chiefs, it’s generally better to catch them early.
I think our OL is the best chance to win this one. Wear their defense out early and often. Montgomery 5/6 per carry of 24 carries…while mixing in some high wire act to keep them honest. It will be a track meet at times, and I think that’s why the NFL chose us. 35-30 Lions. This game will be decided in the 4th quarter and will be a good one.
I think our OL and the “small stuff” is how we win…win at the margins. Monty is an extension of the OL and was Brought in to take advantage of thier power.
Winning at the margins means Fox sneaking some of his magic in there at an opportune moment. It means winning the turnover battle as well.
This should be a fun one. If we can keep them in the fist fight with us, we win. We let them play “pretty football,” it’ll be a track meet. Tampa in the SB pressured Mahommes and he didn’t look good at all. Granted, they had a couple of backup OL out there, but Houston and Hutch could play a major role in this one…if not by sacks, by hurries that give guys like Kerby a chance.
Yeah I thought about mentioning Monty, I think he’ll probably be a bigger factor than Gibbs. It will be interesting to see how they use Chenal, they basically brought him in as a run-stopping ringer against Philly in the Super Bowl and he had a great game. But he’s a liability in the passing game, so if they have him in when Gibbs is lined up it’s a major advantage for us. Gonna be a fascinating chess match, I’m glad we have Ben on our side of the table.
I also agree that our edges rushers could have a big impact. They’re blooding two new tackles, neither of whom were great with their former teams (Donovan Smith for Tampa, Jawaan Taylor for Jax). The interior of their line is really loaded but they rely on Pat to get them out of trouble when their tackles mess up.
The Chiefs will have two new starting OT’s on opening day. Both starters, Donavan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, were mediocre starters at best last year. With the depth we have at edge, this is the spot to attack. If we can get pressure off the edge and keep contain, I really like our chances.
The Chiefs are pretty mediocre on defense. They don’t have any glaring weaknesses, but there are no true strength either. Pass rush could develop with Karlaftis and FAU outside with Chris Jones inside. Karlaftis was very up and down as a rookie though. If Decker and Sewell are out there, I’d expect them to be mostly non factors. The biggest factor will be limiting Chris Jones in the middle. If he is held mostly in check I think we can outscore them.
Yeah I’m really only worried about their pass rush if they get a lead, but I really think at the very least we’ll be able to keep it close. Jones is the problem, I think he or Jeffrey Simmons is the best DT in the league not named Aaron Donald, but Ragnow’s excellent too.
I think you’re slightly underrating their back 7. It’s true that they don’t really have any stars, but Nick Bolton is on the cusp and Drue Tranquill was a pretty sneaky add for them too, that guy always impressed me for the Chargers. I think they’ve actually got one of the best LB rooms in the league.
L’Jarius Sneed is an excellent corner, I loved Bryan Cook coming out and he had a good rookie year, Justin Reid is solid, and while McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams are young and still largely untested, they played great down the stretch last year.
We could really use Jamo this game to stretch the field but hopefully Khalif can do some of that. I expect them to play tight to the line to try and limit our run game and the space ARSB has to operate. When Gibbs is in he will almost certainly require a S or CB to flex onto him and hopefully Ben sends him deep a few times too, but by and large I think their plan will be to dare Goff to beat them over the top.
It’s a similar game plan to the one they used against Philly and the Eagles almost pulled it off. But of course AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Goedert are probably a better corps than what we can throw at them right now. Like us, the Philly OL was elite as well and the Chiefs were determined not to let them be the deciding factor.
It’ll be very interesting between Campbell, Gardner-Johnson, and Branch to see how Glenn and John Fox decide to cover Kelce.
I could see us going one high with Kerby and telling Branch and CJ to line up all over the place and disguise the coverage. For that to work though you have to have good outside corners, which we think we have now. I think Sutton can play a good game against whatever receiver he’s matched up with, so is Moseley healthy? Do we count on Jerry Jacobs against MVS? Or whoever that other receiver is?
Campbell is going to be a massive addition to this run defense. Their rushing attack doesn’t scare me, it’s just that everyone is panicking and trying to not get the ball thrown all over them that the Chiefs are able to find consistent success on the ground. That said their IOL is very good, especially in pass pro.
Right, defending Kelce will be huge. We’ll almost certainly have to use some DBs for the task, leaving their WRs with more room to operate. But do their receivers scare us enough to make us back off? Right now I’d say no, but Toney certainly has some electric abilities.
Hopefully we have a whole package of defensive looks Mahomes hasn’t seen.
I predict that Mahomes throws a personal record number of interceptions because of our relentless pass rush and BNL secondary. 2 ints come off of Jack Campbell tipped balls. Size matters. Mahomes still throws 3 tds because he is a fuckin G. Lions do not take the pedal off the floor all night in Kansas City and win 42-24… thus putting the league on notice. Jack Fox does not punt all night. In the post game press conference MCDC jokes about getting Fox some offensive reps so he doesn’t get bored this season.
I think this being game one and new pieces on offense will help improve the Lions odds to pull this one out, still expecting a close loss. Yes there is film on Ben J so I’m probably chugging the koolain but I definitely expect to see new plays out of old formations.
Similar thinking on defense with the new players in the secondary and am curious to see what happens with the DL.
I think Ben is creative enough that we’ll have a whole slew of new stuff worked up for them. I’m really happy we like to use the element of surprise as opposed to the old school mindset of “we’ll line up and run our stuff and it’s on you to stop us.” Today’s players are so smart and clued into their keys, you have to use some deception.
The Chiefs, Eagles, Saints (under Payton), 49ers and Rams have been the best at this over the past few years, it’s no surprise they’ve won so many games.
I think the same thing on defense. You’re right that it’s a big advantage to play them right off the bat.
Honestly if I had to predict… I think we lose by double digits. Under Campbell we’ve tended to come out slow out of the gate. We also have a lot of new moving parts. The chiefs are much more of a veteran team that historically has come firing on all cylinders under Andy Reid. The chiefs tend to blow people out early in the season. Teams usually start to get more tape on them and have a better chance at slowing them down late. And spagnolo also tends to have some new exotic stuff that catches teams off guard. I like our projection for the season. I think we’ve got a solid shot to win the division. The chiefs on opening day are such a tough draw.
I think we started pretty well last year against the eventual NFC champs. And two years ago we were a talentless mess at the start of a rebuild. At the very least I think you can say it’s an extremely small sample size to draw the conclusion Dan-coached teams start slow.
Well, the offense was able to click early last season but as far as W’s you are right but, year one I can understand why. I just hope they have fixed the coaching staff issues that popped on offense year one and defense year 2. Once corrected you saw real improvement.
So hopefully all the coaches are now working as one towards the same goal instead of one not fully buying in.
I am really intrigues by what the offense is going to look like.
5OL and Goff
then Montgomery/Gibbs/LaPorta/St Brown Jones.
There are a tons of options for this grouping and you could possibly sub Mitchell for Jones without losing a beat if he progresses like I think he will.
They can go uptempo with this grouping splitting Gibbs to the slot or even wide with Mitchell in the slot and Brown on the other side. Really REALLY stress a defense due to the talent on this side of the ball.
I am curious how much uptempo, even if it is slower uptempo just to the line fast preventing the defense from substituting. I’m thinking it may be more than we have seen before either fast uptempo or slow uptempo(not sure accurate name just to the line fast and then use the clock).
Oh,
Add in Goff with play action on top of the above.
I cannot wait.
Philly was in deep shit in game one last year…and we had half of our starters in the MAS*H unit. This year…full head of steam! KC is in deep shit. They’ll never stop Johnson’s offense.