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If a GM drafts 2 pro bowlers a year but the rest of the draft is basically non extension players, would you consider that a long term success? Would the Lions be able to propagate growth with that?
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If a GM drafts no pro bowlers but consistently drafts players who sign second contracts but don’t net top picks in trade or comps, would you consider that successful?
I’m good at drawing but not necessarily technical drawings for engineers!!
Come on now… you should have see it coming!! 
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First off, the pro bowl is a popularity contest, not indicitave of a truly talented player. I know what your point is so I will play along and assume you meant a top tier player.
1.) No, not in my eyes. 2 pro bowlers means, lets say 1 on offense and 1 on defense. You are supposed to hit on your 1st and 2nd round picks. Now in 4 years, the idea would be your team could have 8 pro bowlers. Which would be right in time for you to start losing the first guys you drafted, because they aren’t sticking around having to carry an entire team. Even with 4 PB’s on offense and 4 on defense, that’s still 7 other guys on the field who are ass. We can call this, the Mayhew Lions effect.
2.) Yes, I would say this GM is a successful drafter. If a player gets a second contract, either from the drafting team or from another team as a free agent, that indicates that teams feel the player is talented enough to play in the NFL. I think you can have more success drafting a solid team of 4-5 players per draft, even if they are not top tier. Also, we know at some point, a player who is a 4th rounder becomes your Amon Ra St. Brown, or a Trey Hendrickson. You can definitely build a team faster by hitting on later round picks. Call this the Brad Holmes effect. Yes, he drafted beasts like Penei and Hutch. However, it was the picks for McNeil, Amon Ra, Kerby, Laporta, Branch and even guys like Rodrigo who helped the Lions become as good as fast as they did.
Eric La Costa from the Ravens also falls into this category. Baltimore always seems to find players, even if they don’t hit on their top picks, and they are always drafting towards the bottom of the rounds. Guys that Baltimore drafts seem to stay in the league for a long time, even if they don’t stay on the Ravens. That means they are still finding talent, its just not enough talent to stay longterm on a team like the Ravens.
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I’m confused by the prompt. Are you asking which I’d prefer? #1 all day every day.
Stars need to come from the draft. Are there other ways sure. But that is often hard and almost always expensive.
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This is kind of what I mean. I am hoping people don’t look at whiffs (to date) like HH, Sorsdal, Bromart, maybe Manu and actually think those offset the multiple gems he has.
But if we are able to get two difference makers per year and possibly 1 second contract guy a year that would definitely be enough perpetuate this teams run.
I am generally not a fan of trading so many beans to move up, but I am starting to see why Brad does it. If 3-4 “hits” on the draft is what he believes he needs, then he is willing to consolidate picks to get there, rather than having more picks to do it.
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Option 2-ish used to be my standard. To me, the measure of a franchise that’s drafting well is the number of 4th year+ players on the 53-man roster.
I took a look at it in 2009. The 2 best teams at that time were Falcons and Dolphins.
There is a lot to be said for Option 1, though. But, pro-bowl alone doesn’t really capture it. There has to be a certain number of players kept around that contribute to the nucleus. Your ability to sustain retirement and cap casualties is directly tied to your success each and every year in the draft.
ETA: I think I may have narrowed my focus to that 5-year window because Detroit had no (or few) players remaining from that period in 2009. To be honest, I was expecting greater disparity. I wish I had done a look at all 4+, not just the 5-year range of players that should be peak contributors.
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The standard model is based on consistent starters.
A good GM gets 2 starters per draft.
A great GM gets 3 starters per draft.
A HOF GM gets 4 starters per draft.
On average judged after the 3rd season relative to each draft.
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I agree with Line here, and I am going to expand a bit on my original post. Everyone here pretty much accepts that Bob Quinn was a bad GM, right? I think GM A in this example IS Bob Quinn.
2016 draft
Rd 1 Taylor Decker
Rd 2 A’Shawn Robinson. Hasn’t done much but is still in the league.
Rd 3 Graham Glasgow.
Rd 4-7, nothing.
2017 draft
Rd 1 and 2, total busts
Rd 3 Kenny Golladay
Rd 4 Jalen Reeves Mabin
Rd 5 Jamal Agnew - kinda like Ashawn Robinson, still around.
Rd 6-7, nothing
2018 draft
Rd 1 Frank Ragnow
Rd 2 Kerryon Johnson, bust
Rd 3 Tracy Walker, and this more accurately should be a bust.
Rd 4-7, nothing
2019 draft
Rd 1 - TJ Hockenson. Still a player, but he wasn’t what was expected either.
Rd 2-4, nothing
Rd 5 - Amani Oruwariye. Had a few decent seasons, especially for a 5th rd player and is still in the NFL.
Rd 6-7, nothing
2020 draft
Rd 1 total bust
Rd 2 Deandre Swift, at least he still plays
Rd 3 Julian Okwara and Jonah Jackson. One bust, one fringe player at this point.
Rd 4-7, nothing
So this right here basically makes my head hurt and wonder how Bob Quinn was given FIVE drafts. He basically landed 1 quality NFL player, one roster guy, and the rest garbage.
Mayhew’s Lions were very much the same. He had Calvin (Millen pick), Stafford, Suh, Ansah, all elite talents who also cost elite money. Then the bottom of the roster was full of guys who literally were CFL level players that wouldn’t be on any other roster. The talent dropoff was staggering. If you played a 3-3 Madden or NFL street type game, the Lions were elite. If you played actual football 11 on 11, then you realized why we couldn’t win many games that era. Mayhew then would spend huge amounts of Free Agency money to buy talent to help fill the roster holes, and we would ride this roller coaster. Buy players, good year (2011). Next year, pay for players, bad years. (2012-2013). New coach, buy talent and finally see a good draft from 2013 develop, good year (2014). No cap space, lose talent, bad year, get fired. (2015)
We weren’t just bad at the draft. We were malpractice bad. The guys we are supposed to hit on, gimmies, we hit less than 50%. This is why I argue people who talk about “well it’s easy no brainers to take guys like Penei or Hutch.” No, it isn’t, you could still draft someone else like we did for YEARS. Then the guys who you need to fill out your team, rounds 3-7, we hit at less than 15%? If that?
That’s why the Lions couldn’t win anything for two entire decades, malpractice management… We begged for hiring football guys who could find talent in the draft, and actual football coaches who could teach that talent to become NFL players. What happens? We start 3-13-1 as a nearly talentless team pre 2021 draft. In 2022, we then go 9-8, after starting 1-6. We won 6 out of 7 games for the first time in a decade. 2023, 12-5. 2024, 15-2.
It’s almost like hiring a GM who can find talent in college, and hiring a head coaching staff that actually played NFL football and can teach those college talents to play in the NFL, was a successful building plan. 
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People who judge one of Brad’s draft picks before they have had 3 years just dont know ball. Or are very very young.
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Or, having spent 40yrs as a fan of a dismal franchise, still view the lions through the lens of Schmidt, Thomas, Millen, Mayhew, and Quinn.
Which made them value their judgement more than Lion GM’s, understandable, sure. However, self correction from SOLGM think needs to happen in the Holmes era. We see books posted on the matter even now.
@StormGuyNovi well researched post. Love it. It makes Wenotme’s post look even more egregious given that we blew and still couldn’t find starters.
@Wenotme i like your terms. I would add being able to add starters like that for a period greater than 3 consecutive years. Probably easy for someone to get starters when their team sucks. Less so after a few years.
Agreed… What’s crazy is players get more expensive the more pro bowls they make. The 5th year option for first round picks goes up extensively for pro bowls. Kinda ridiculous.
The only position Bob could have draft well was oline. Decker, Ragnow, GG and Jonah all have had good careers. Ragnow being elite for several years.
Draft position factors in as well… Should a GM really get props for hitting on a top 5 pick? Should be discounted if they miss though on that same top 5 pick though? If you have a great roster and your 1st rounder doesn’t start, something very likely for the Lions this season, does that make it a bad pick? Overall, I think you need to net 3 starters per draft by year 3 of the players career.
2021 - 4 Starters (Sewell, Ra, McNeil, Barnes)
2022 - 3 Starters (Hutch, Jamo, Kerb)
2023 - 4 Starters (Gibbs, Campbell, Laporta, Branch)
2024 - 1 Starter MAYBE 2 with Mahogany (Arnold)
2024 may turn out more starters… But the roster is pretty stacked now, should Holmes be penalized for that?
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Great point. It’s harder and harder to draft starters in year 1 cause our roster is freaken good.
Example Alim and Levi were starting year 1… Cause we had no dline talent. Not because they were ready to start. But that experience helped them become who they are today. Turns out Levi didn’t start but he played a lot. Forgot about Brockers.
Drafting good players.
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Have you not paid attention to Holmes? shit we went 15 and 2 in 2024, with a massive amount of injuries-that is great drafting.
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Hell yeah! Best defense ever!
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Those are some all timer type drafts right there.
Not to mention
2021-
Levi who could blow up this year finally.
Iffy who could net us a 5th round pick back by qualifying in the calculations, and had a damn good run for us in our NFCCG season 2023.
2022 -
Rodrigo solid solid depth /ST guy spot starter.
Paschal I would label him a 2nd round miss if he doesn’t show drastic improvements.
2023- Developmental projects Hooker, BroMart, Sorsdal
2024-
Rakestraw could/should win the NB spot that’s essentially a starter
Future LT in Manu.
Future G starter in Mahogs.
Wingo in the 6th likely to take Josh Paschal spot IMO
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A good drafter? Well, to start with I would say a solid foundation interpreting blueprints, and, of course, attention to detail. Accurate notations are a must, followed by a thorough knowledge of geometric dimensioning and tolerancing practices.
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