JTT is higher for me too. Stout on the edge. Maybe not quite as flashy in terms of the bend or length FEMI demonstrates, but JTT can really anchor against the run, made a ton of plays in the backfield, and absolutely blew Penn State up single-handedly.
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Completely understand. And after listening to his interviews, I could see his moves as being business decisions, sort of like transferring to A&M to begin with. Professionalism absent heart isn’t going to resonate here.
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I agree completely with all of that. It’s the age more than the injury that gives me pause, though an injury on an older guy isn’t great for hitting the ground running, with us at least he could be eased in. But in general I find the upside less appealing overall despite what I think is pretty rare talent. Or maybe it’s better to say the upside doesn’t outweigh the floor by enough to take over other guys.
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You take BPA and let the chips fall.
Priority One, improve the roster.
Did we “need” Gibbs with Monty and Swift on the roster?
Did we “need” Campbell with AA, and Barnes?
I’m glad we went BPA.
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Yeah, good question. One thing that has been bothering me about this draft, even before this scenario, is that 28 seems like no mans land in this draft. And I think (unless somebody wants a QB and wants to move up), its going to be hard to get value to move down. Maybe moving up will get discounted, we’ll see.
You never know if draftniks have boards like NFL teams do, but all these mocks I do I always find myself concluding that the best solution for the team is to find a way to have two picks right in the middle of 28-60. Like 2 picks in between 35-50 instead of 28 and 60. That allows guys like JTT or Swinson or Donovan Jackson to be more palatable to take.
The Lions seem to value the ability to stop the run over pass rush ability for that spot opposite Hutch. Did that change after the lack of a good pass rush last year when Hutch went down? Probably not? The Lions seemed very comfortable to start the season last year with Davenport and Paschal on that side. Did that change? Maybe? Probably?
Then there is DT. I am really concerned about DT. We signed Lopez, so it looks like we’ll start the season with Reader and Levi starting and Lopez as the third who can spell at NT? Alim and Wingo have ACLs to recover from, and while you can come back from them, it takes a while to get all the way back. We might be halfway or more into the season before those guys are back fully. Yeah, you can come back from an ACL in 9 months, but they are DTs and even if they weren’t it still takes like a year to get a100% ll the way back. Hutch is coming off injury too. I can only hope he was recovered enough to get a fully offseason of training in.
You said no trade downs in your scenerio, so I think in this scenario I might think about the following players:
Bradyn Swinson. You did tell me about a character incident. Not sure how serious being late for curfew was, i.e. was it a one off or was it the culmination of a lot of warnings? But I like how he grew on the field last year. I think he would add tremendously to our pass rush. He’d probably back up Hutch first year and come in as a pass rush sub until we can figure out if he can improve vs the run (which is his weakness IMO). Is this high? Yeah, sure. But I think the queston to ask is what is his floor and what is his upside. I think he will probably have both a relatively high floor (depending if he can hold edge or be a SAM) and defintely high upside. I haven’t seen any numbers on his this draft cycle, but he looks super athletic with long arms and a frame to put on a little bit of weight.
Alfred Collins NT/DT. I was looking at him this week. There seems to be something there. The guy has one of those “man among boys” frames at like 6’5" 330 lbs with 34" arms. So the guy is a unit. And he looks athletic enough to play from like NT to maybe 5 tech possibly. Another guy that looks better with a trade down, but I think we could do worse at 28 because the upside and physical attributes are there.
The other thing is that I would definitely consider Will Johnson or Will Campbell if one of them is not among your top 8. Value pick, obvously. I figure Ward, Graham, Hunter, Membou, Carter, Jeanty, Warren were seven. Wasn’t sure on whether the last was Campbell or Johnson.
I could get behind picking JTT I guess, but I really hate taking him at 28. I’m in the camp that says he is at least similar to Paschal in that they are both run defense first options at DE. I think Paschal has more explosiveness in his lower body because he is so stout. Both have marginal pass rush ability although I think JTT has a little more upside. JTT has better footwork and agility. And he has more prototype height and arm length. Again, another example of a guy I would much rather have in that 35-50 range but probably won’t be there for us at 60.
Holy smokes I did it again. sorry for the long post!
Also: where is Tet? I’d have to think about him too. We need that type of guy.
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As a keyboard user and fast typer myself, I love long posts! It makes me feel like I’m not so much of an outlier.
Yeah on Swinson, he’s the 30th overall player on my personal board, so I like him a lot. But there’s a difference between what I like and what I think our FO will do (I also love Mike Green’s tape, but I’m even more sure he’s off our board).
The late to curfew thing isn’t so bad in a vacuum, but the suspension doesn’t look great. And we’re only sure about one of those things (the suspension). The rumored curfew violation is just that, a rumor. And we’ll never know from the outside looking in, though of course it won’t be hard for the FO to get to the bottom of it. But man I was all over him as an option for us back in October, every time I watched he flashed. And chasing down the A&M QB (the second one) was an eye-opener re: his juice.
Collins will step in day 1 and shut down the run, that’s an easy thing to love. The problem is, despite his gifts and what seems to be enough juice, he’s just a bad pass-rusher. It doesn’t make a ton of sense, but he’s had 5 years there to improve and hasn’t. It’s also not great that it took him until this year to become the starter, despite arriving in Austin before Bryant Young. He got passed on the depth chart.
Honestly I might prefer his teammate Broughton a few rounds later. He’s equally freakish (6’5, 311 with 35 inch arms) and is already a good run defender as well. Like Collins he struggles as a pass-rusher, but unlike his teammate he doesn’t seem to have as high of a ceiling there either. He’s not a bad athlete (4.67 40 
) but he’s not quick or explosive, and his power doesn’t come from his lower body so he’s not much of a bull-rusher either. But I’m not sure Collins ever reaches his pass-rush ceiling, so I’ll take the big discount.
Yeah Campbell and Johnson were both long gone. I think we’d add either one in a hearbeat. I don’t love Campbell for the teams picking early, but I’d love him for us. Highly unlikely he falls that far though, teams just love his character and smarts too much, no matter how short his arms are.
I think JTT’s juice on tape is better than Paschal’s - especially his get-off - though I doubt he would test much better since Paschal tested remarkably well. Also, while I think Paschal is excellent against the run, I think JTT has a preternatural gift for success in short yardage situations. I’ve never seen anything like it. I hope they don’t ban the tush push so we can see him wreck it.
Really cool topic and post sir!!!
Imo the Den is committed to paying Hutch a record contract, but doesn’t quite feel comfortable he will be back to DPOY level right away, or maybe ever. If we believe Hutch is getting 40M plus AAV, then we better assume 14 sacks a year are coming with.
The team seems to like Davenport and Paschal more than we do, and I presume they believe Muhammad could get 3 or so rotational sacks.
The front office may only see about 500 snaps available to a DE opposite Hutch
The front office may be okay with Reader, Levi, Lopez, and Adams in rotation until Alim and Wingo come back
The front office may not be as comfortable at WR as some think…. They will surely pickup Jamos 5th year, but will they pay him? Patrick and Raymond are in their 30s and in their final year of their deals.
We have no clue where the team sees Mahogany for next year, if they are as down on GG as we are, and what they think of Manu or Sorsdal.
Will they extend Kerby? He and Bramch would be quite expensive next to each other.
So…
Starks
J Higgins
E Roberts
Ingram-Dawkins
Colby Connor
K Rourke
Ettienne
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Completely forgot about him. What’s his projected return time? I was assuming he’d be healthy, for some reason.
Great point - HIGH likelihood of at least 1 rook and possibly FA or 2 as wel.
Painful to think of losing either of those cats. For me, same w/Jamoss. Hope they can get 'em all done, or trade some of 'em at the very least. Would be terrible to just lose them for nothing.
I think with Pascal a lot of the lack of production from him its more Lions fault than many think. I understand when he got here they wanted him to add weight an then he had injuries an what they asked him to do was not what he was use to. Then he was asked to lose the weight an also had couple of like not bad injuries just ones that slowed him in his development.
Now I hope they let him play like he did in school at weight he had in school. We just might see the player he could be or should be.
I have not liked his play but did read about injuries an heard he was asked to gain weight an change position an then lose it .If he played like in school would be present surprize
I was really high on Collins early on and my visions were the next Richard Seymour. The more I watched there was just no pass rush at all. He has great range in the run game he can shed his block and lunge 3 yards over to make tackles. He will even chase plays down from behind so the effort is there. Just no upfield rush. It’s like damn can’t somebody teach this guy a swim move or something. As I watched Texas get deeper in the playoffs and he was on the sidelines in so many key situations it made me realize he is not as valuable as I wanted him to be. Now I could still see him as a DE for the Steelers for the next 10 years.
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A perfect spot for him
Yea the Ravens and the Steelers have their identity. I guess we do too now. Like how surprised were you when the Ravens drafted that giant OT from Minnesota?
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Not very surprised at all. If anything I was more surprised by Rosengarten last year. Felt against type.
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I mean, I don’t want to sound like I’m better than everyone else, but one time my Aunt the court reporter saw me typing and said “whoa”
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And she was probably under oath when she said it.
I can neither confirm nor deny
Yeah arguing with you on here is like arguing with my daughters in a text message. I don’t stand a chance. By the time I type my sentence the subject has already changed.
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The best vomit is word vomit.
After Jackson Pollock paintings. Pretty sure he used vomit. Would explain his ardently liquid diet.