Serious question. Brad likes to move around to get his guys, and all the early buzz says that this draft is super top-heavy. So, if the Lions opt to trade UP to grab a guy in the teens, who are they targeting?
Eerily similar bonus question: If they decide to move up to the early/mid second, who will they be looking to grab?
My own guess: In the first, I think they trade up a dozen or so spots to grab Quinyon Mitchell.
In the second, I think they trade up to grab an OL who’s slipped, but I couldn’t tell you which one.
I don’t think they’d have to trade up for him though.
I think it could be any of: Latu, Turner, Verse, D. Robinson, Arnold, Q. Mitchell, Wiggins, DeJean, McKinstry, Odunze, Thomas Jr., McConkey, Legette, Bowers, Fautanu, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu, Mims, Barton, J. Morgan, Murphy, or Newton.
Some are more likely than others, but I suspect all of those guys are on our list. Which won has the FO fallen in love with? Very difficult to predict. But that’s what it will take.
A trade up will be a small leapfrog a couplemof spots, if it happens. Nothing drastic. Too prohibative to go to late teens to get one of the CB’s. Much likelier Lions trade out of first for early 2nd, and then trade back from that early second and pick up a couple extra picks.
I’m not sure the Lions would give up more than a 3rd rounder to trade up. Just my guess. But, to answer your question, if the Lions did trade up to the teens I think the most likely players they trade up for are Dallas Turner, Byron Murphy, Q. Mitchell and Jared Verse. Impact players, basically.
Am I the only one concerned that Quinyon Mitchell has played against virtually no NFL talent? I’m always cautious about projecting players from small schools.
In any event, I think a trade down is more possible for multiple reasons. Holmes doesn’t have a 4th rounder and dealt the second 3rd rounder and might want to recoup some picks, there are teams near the top of the 2nd that have lots of draft picks (Arizona to name one) and I’d think that a 1st round pick would be really attractive for teams that want that 5th year rookie contract although it could be argued that the 5th year is especially important for a team like the Lions that is likely to enter cap hell faze pretty soon.
I know that Brad loves the trade up option because he gets excited about “his guys” but the Lions also had a lot more picks in years past to use as ammunition so I don’t think it’s nearly as likely this season.
I believe he was the number one buzz-generator from the Senior Bowl, where scouts watched him play and practice all week against the best seniors in the country. I don’t remember which WRs played that week, but I have to think at least some of them will be drafted?
You may well be right about the lack of draft capital this year translating to less movement.
When was the last time a team traded up for this reason? You usually hear about it at QB, but the last team to do it was Baltimore with Lamar. Since then two teams have traded up for QBs at the top of the 2nd (Drew Lock and Will Levis), but not into the bottom of the 1st.
There have been a few trades from the early 2nd into the late 1st, but those haven’t been motivated by the 5th year option imo. The Jets almost took Jermaine Johnson top ten, so when he fell into the 20s they pounced. The Packers traded up for Love, but from 30, which was still a 1st rounder.
I have this theory that the 5th year option is not as valuable to teams as it used to be, or as we think it is.
Part of this is because of a rule change with the latest CBA (as seen in article linked at the bottom) which has made it more expensive and prohibitive to get out of, but I also because if you hit on the guy, you’re generally re-signing him to a contract before it becomes a decision. If you miss, then you don’t want to pick it up anyway. The only players it matters for are the guys you’re not sure about, and as often as not teams end up picking the option up and regretting it, or declining it go and regretting it. It hasn’t provided the protection from making bad decisions the teams thought it would. In fact it has often made it more difficult (such as the case of Daniel Jones).
My issue is that the Senior Bowl is such a small sample size. I know that a lot of buzz is generated from those games but a lot of Mitchell’s projections are based on his physical gifts not a large sample size of gametape against legit receivers.
I’m not saying it’s likely, I’m just saying that it could be a determining factor for a team wanting to trade up for a QB in particular but I don’t know what teams are thinking, I’m just putting it out there as a distinct possibility. Betting on any trade up or down is usually a failed bet regardless.
Is there really that much of a difference though? Outside of a handful of teams that made it to conference championship/CFB postseason play, won’t most CBs have a very small sample size for their work against top WRs?
This is going to change (a lot) starting next season, due to the B1G and SEC adding more quality teams. But until now, even CBs on the best teams only had 2-3 games a year against top receivers. I’d think the ability to watch a guy practice for a solid week against the best seniors from all over the country, up close and personal, would give scouts at least as good a feel for whether a guy belongs or not.
If one of the top corners are still there by say 17-20 I could see the Lions trading up. You look at many mocks, the first CB isn’t gone until 15 or later. Question is if the Lions see Arnold or Mitchell valuable enough to go up 10-15 spots. I think the real good o lineman are gone too early.
I do think there’s a wide gulf of difference between playing against MAC level receivers 10+ games a year and SEC/Big 12/Pac 12/ACC etc. receivers 10+ games a year. There’s no feel like seeing them line up against good competition game in and game out and seeing how they compete in live action against the best.
I’m not writing off Mitchell by any means but I’d be skeptical of a player that hasn’t played against top competition his entire career outside of All Star games.
