Whoa! She is Thicc! Deepest draft in History?

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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I found this article about the 2021 NFL draft being the “thinnest” talent wise in many years. We know the NCAA changed its rules and allowed (otherwise ineligible) players the option to return to school and play more football.

Some quotes from the article above give some insight into how “thin” the 2021 draft was and the ripple effects that may make the 2022 NFL Draft the “thickest” talent wise in history.

There are a few different ways to measure the number of NFL prospects in a year, but perhaps the most telling is to look at the number of players who have signed a standard representation agreement with an NFL agent. Signing an SRA doesn’t guarantee the player is going to be drafted or even signed as an undrafted free agent, but it is proof that someone thinks they have a shot.

*By mid-April of 2019, 1,972 players had signed an SRA. By mid-April of 2020, 1,839 players had signed.

***This year (2021), as of April 7, that number was only 657.

“You are going to see some PFAs [priority free agents, or the top tier of undrafted prospects] going in round 6 and 7 this year,” said NFL agent Christian Kranz, of Generation Sports Group. “Next year (2022) there are going to be 2000 or more kids in the draft, so guys who would go in 6 and 7 [this year] are going to be low-money camp bodies [next year] because the talent is going to be so rich.”

The small draft class of 2021 also necessarily means that 2022’s is going to be overstuffed, with borderline prospects’ odds of making the NFL longer than ever.

“Next year is going to be deep,” the scout who bemoaned this year’s “slaps” told me. “You are essentially going to have three draft classes. The super seniors, the seniors, and the underclassmen. Next year among the college free agents, there will be some guys who should have got drafted.”

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This tells me we will be seeing

Beanshift 2023

with our lower draft picks.

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I see the argument of trading down for more picks,

But you could also argue that trading up this year could be the best value in draft history.

Trading two 3rds for a top 40 pick? Or higher? Value never seen before. In other drafts it would be the equivalent of trading into the top 25.

I would rather have 4 picks in the top 40- rather than 5 in the top 100.

It’s an interesting argument either way. I love beans just as much as the next bean flicker.

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Great time to have so many magic beans!

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"The small draft class of 2021 also necessarily means that 2022’s is going to be overstuffed"

Just so that doesn’t get lost on anyone… The article quoted about “thinnest” is from April, regarding this last draft. The implication being that THIS draft (2022) is gonna be stacked.

I guess it’s a good time to have a front office that knows how to identify good UDFA talent.

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I mentioned this in an earlier thread. Its a shame that the very top 10 isn’t quite as cherry as last year, but the next like 30- picks-ish are pretty good if all the underclassman come out like expected. People were saying the last three rounds of the 2021 draft were worthless, but we had some UDFAs that really stepped up though.

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San Francisco Trade up to #3 was pretty expensive. Miami moved down to #12 and got two more first round picks and a 3rd.
We trade down from two, the beans will be plentiful…like Fava beans with a nice side of Chianti.




Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter

Filed to ESPN: Dolphins trading No. 3 overall pick to the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 12 pick, a 2021 third-round pick (SF’s comp pick for Robert Saleh hiring) and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023, per sources. Blockbuster deal with massive ramifications for years to come.

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Exactly! That is a very encouraging sign from B. Holmes.

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Sewell, St Brown, and McNeill is an INCREDIBLE draft…. It doesn’t feel that way as our rookie RT has been our best OL player, our rookie NT leads our DL in tackles, sacks, and pff rating, and our rookie WR is having a historically good rookie season.

Having a Justin Jefferson, healthy Ragnow/Decker, and a legit Cam Heyward type next to these guys would have made them even better. They’ve thrived despite the attention they are getting from other teams, and US… we are so THIN we need them to ball every week as rookies.

I like J Williams more than Smith or Waddle.
I like Lloyd and Dean more than JOK or Z Collins
I like Hutch more than Phillips
I liked Parsons more than Thibz
I liked Sewell more than Neal
I like Leal more than Levi
I like J Davis more than Barmore
I like Stingley and Surtain similarly
I like Sauce as much as J Horn
I like Hamilton more than Holland or Moehrig
I liked Pitts more than ???
I like Burks more than Marshall
I like G Wilson more than E Moore

So really Chase, Pitts, Lawrence, Lance, Parsons, and Sewell.

Or Hutch, Thibz, Hamilton, Leal, J Davis, N Dean, etc

I like 2-3 WRs this year more than Smith or Waddle

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Bryant, Harris, and Okwara have more sacks. He is however our best IDL.

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We have two 1st rounds, 1 second round and 2 3rd’s.
5 PLAYERS in the first 3 rounds in a deep draft!!
2021 was a GREAT year to unload the cap hits and start the rebuild.
I see us adding some serious talent, pass rusher, stud WR#1, run stopping LB, secondary help and TE.
If we can stay fairly healthy in 22, hit on 4 of 5 of the picks, get lucky on 1 or 2 with lower round picks/UDFA, and add 2-3 FA’s in area of need, I believe we have a chance for 9-10 wins.
The D is my biggest concern! With a stout O-Line a good run game, and QB that might reach the level of average, we need to be able to keep opponents O off the field.
If we can get our secondary healthy and add a couple of pieces for Glenn to work with, it all boils down to stopping the run. We need a STUD LB.

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As it stands now, the Lions hold 5 picks in the top 100:

Pick ---- (Trade value)

  • 2 (2649)
  • 30 (1276)
  • 34 (1213)
  • 66 (877)
  • 97 (682)

66 and 97 = 1559 points

Right at the #17 (1564 points) in the 1rst round.

Potentially we could end up with 4 picks in the top 35…(instead of 5 top 100)

  • 2
  • 17 (Trade up)
  • 30

I believe it would difficult to find a trade partner that would be willing to execute this exact trade…but it gives an idea of the value of those picks.

There’s so much talent in this draft and the value to trade up (IMO) is at an all-time high.

I know the argument will be, “But Cynodon…its a deep draft…why give up picks? We should trade down for MORE BEANS!”

I just feel this team needs difference makers/playmakers…and not just bodies to fill holes. An additional pick in the top 20 has a better chance of impacting this franchise…than two picks at 66 and 97. I know Sun God is a mid round steal, but these players are exceptions to the rule.

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Good post bud! I agree with your logic in many ways, top talent matters!

B. Holmes added some top talent in his first year. Sewell is elite, Sun God is real good and Alim looks like a future solid NT.

But B. Holmes has shown he can find talent so far, even undrafted players have made an impact so far in his GM career. I’m going to trust him this offseason, I’ll turn on him for sure if he drafts a bunch of busts in the 2022 draft, but so far, so good!

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