I thought this was a very interesting take on drafting WR’s. He makes some valid points backed up with data from the past 10 seasons. I’ve been on record saying Chase would be a homerun @ 7, but it’s shocking how often the top WR taken ends up being a bust.
I’m starting to think Sewell or Parsons might be the best route at 7. And waiting until the 2nd or 3rd round for WR’s.
Check out the video and let’s hear your thoughts!
More pro-bowlers in the second round vs. first round is interesting. This board actually does a pretty good job of picking WR’s. Last year many of us were touting how good Jefferson would be. My worst fear is that he’d end up with the Packers… glad we avoided that, but having him in the division is a bummer.
All that said, I’ve watched Jamar Chase tape, and I don’t see what the rest of you see. I know I’m in a minority, but I think there’s a higher chance that he is a bust than some of the others. If we don’t get Smith or Waddle, my favorites in the next tier are Kadarius Toney from FL and R. Moore from Purdue. I think Toney has a chance to be the best WR of the whole lot.
Man Toney to me has the highest bust potential due to his “gimmicky” label. I think Chase and Smith are as safe as it gets at WR, barring an injury. I see waddle as having some bust potential, but also having a really high ceiling.
I don’t know many WRs who put up the numbers Chase and Smith put up. And I like that both players biggest strengths exclude speed (even though chase ran well at his pro day). Route running, hands, and contested catch are much more important than speed.
Also, I bet the majority of rd 1 bust WRs were guys who were burners first
For sure, and it’s by a large margin as well.
I didn’t verify, but the OP’s link says no - the busts come in all shapes and sizes. I don’t see Chase winning many contested balls. I agree that that is what he’s known for, but I see perfectly thrown passes to him that hit him right in stride. Why do you think Toney is gimmicky? He has unreal balance and great separation.
It’s just what I’ve heard about Toney. That’s not my personal opinion. I’ve seen gimmicky attached to him on several occasions. I just don’t like that for a potential first round pick.
I watched the video. The list he showed can definitely be largely attached to speed. Ruggs (way too soon to categorize him As a bust), Hollywood Brown, Tavon Austin, John Ross…I can’t remember the rest. But that’s 4/10 that speed is their top attribute coming out.
Someone on the list that I don’t think is a bust is Mike Williams. He’s a stud. Keenan Allen running all the safe routes hurt him. Especially with lob gun Rivers throwing to him. Herbert and Williams might have a monster year. I’m predicting it anyway lol.
I think that Ja’Marr Chase’s pro comparison is Davante Adams. And he is very good with body control and contested catches. You don’t have to go up and over the top of defenders to be a really good contested catcher.
Then you haven’t watched enough tape. I’m not sure how else to say it.
You are not alone. 3rdRanger is there as well. But his concerns are more about the ability to get separation, which I agree with. Your take of him running wide open and not winning contested balls confuses me.
Did i say he was running wide open? I did say I don’t see him winning many contested balls., I’ll check more tape as you say I should. I did say that he got many perfect passes thrown to him that hit him in stride. That doesn’t mean he had gotten great separation.
I see elite smoothness, body control, and route running in Smith.
I see elite speed and separation in Waddle.
I see Chase as a very good receiver who benefitted alot from an elite Joe Burrow. I’ll keep looking though, because I know I’m not smarter than every draft pundit that has him as WR1!
If you don’t see separation, you are definitely seeing what 3rdRanger and I see. But Ranger spotted it and vocalized it first.
I see contested catches as being a strength of his. But strength…is also a strength. He has an abnormal amount of strength and physicality, which is why I leaned towards DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant with my comps.
Where did he get his stats or info is my question…
Andre Johnson
Reggie Wayne
Calvin Johnson
Andre Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Dez Bryant
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Demaryius Thomas
OBJ
Deandre Hopkins
Amari Cooper
Mike Evans
Justin Jefferson
So there have been 14 WRs in the pro bowl last 9 years that were first rounders. I believe 38 taken.
That said, I get it- that’s why I’m all set on Waddle and possibly D Smith
Ruggs
T Ginn
T Austin
J Reagor
J Ross
Hollywood Brown
Will Fuller
B Cooks
There are 8 guys thought to be “home run” threats in college and all but Cooks have yet to prove consistently solid pros.
Before anyone says Fuller he’s had over 700 yards once in 5 years for a team that spent a first rounder on him. I believe everyone of of those guys is u fee 6’1” or under 190 pounds, or both at time of combine!!!
I just watched more tape. Yes, he is strong at the point of the catch. And i did see some contested catches this time. But geesh, Burrows passes to him seem to ALWAYS be on target. The only time I saw separation is when there’s an obvious defensive secondary error.
Your comps make sense, but I’d be surprised if Chase lives up to Bryant and especially Hopkins. I guess I see alot of Golladay in him, too, only Chase is faster.
I’d still put the Alabama guys (and probably Pitts, too) in front of him. Hopefully Cincy takes him so its moot. If they do, we may never know if its Burrow or if its Chase or if its just unusual chemistry between the two.
If we go WR in the first, he’s the one I want. Hope we trade down and get him
If he lasts until the 2nd, I’d love to have him with one of our 2nd rounders. (remember, we’re trading down) 
He’s got guts too, as well as instinct. He’s a very instinctive player. Get him in the weight room and turn him into Golden Tate-type?
Show me the list of guys over 6’ tall and 190 pounds, with sub 4.5 speed, and at least 1,000 yards and 7 plus tds in a year in college.
Amazingly guys like the 8 above, plus K Benjamin, C Patterson, Mike Williams, L Treadwell, J Docston, Phillip Dorsett, K Wright, all guys that ran way slower than expected like 190 pound Wright at 4.61, or who never really produced in college like Patterson, or the too small burners in the group of 8 in the previous post.
Bottom line- can a guy like Adams or Ty Hill be a stud above many first rounders? Sure.
At 6’2” and 215 pounds with a 4.53 forty and coming off 200 catches, 3,000 yards, and 38 tds in 2 years of division 1. Polished route runner… who the hell took K Benjamin or J Mathews or many others ahead of him?
Jeudy had a solid rookie campaign. I thought he’d be more dominant though. I don’t watch as much college ball as many of you, but what I did see of him, he looked like the fastest athlete on the field by a mile. Insane.
I just looked him up - 193 lbs.
850 yards.
Chase is a master of coming down with contested balls because he is soooo strong, great hands. This greatly impacts his ability to work through press coverage and YAC (yards after contact). Guy is a bull, but he doesn’t get as much seperation as Smith or Waddle do.
I go back and forth on who is the best fit for the Lions, Chase, Waddle, Smith, Toney, they all have unique strengths. It’s been said Waddle could be the best of the bunch, Smith the best route runner and most productive, Chase strongest, best at coming down with the ball and most difficult to bring down, Toney great hands, shifty, gets seperation. And all are subject to the 50% 1st round bust rate.
I wonder what the injury rate is for guys that go up and make great contested catches. I would imagine any time a WR goes up into the air, their chances of injury go up.
I think tall WR’s invite QB’s to get lazy and just throw it up there.
That’s the scary part for sure. Lions have a lot of first rounders in the coming years, we gotta hit on those top picks.
I will say the way the WR core is constructed right now, chase fits the least. I do believe he can operate out of the slot, I don’t think it’s where he is best. So Smith and Waddle are better fits with this current core. But our other two starting WRs also are on 1 year contracts.
I do like the comp of Hopkins in terms of strength/contested balls. Which is, as Wes said, his best trait.