As much as I like the idea of taking Bijan, I am okay with staying put and letting the draft come to us. I disagree with some posters here who refuse to take a RB in the 1st round no matter how good the kid is. But the logic they are using to get to that position is still fundamentally sound. And I am okay using the same logic to sit back and risk losing Bijan.
I got bored one day years ago and mapped out RBs career arcs and I found something that was interesting. Once you throw out the outliers like Barry, AP, Emmitt, etc it seems like changing teams extends a RBs shelf life for a few years. I guess its like a breath of fresh air for the guys, and they put in the work to prove themselves to their new teammates. So there is sound logic in bringing in Jacobs. We should get a solid 2-3 years out of him whereas if the Raiders retained him he might hit a wall as soon as next year. Or he might have even hit one this year had everything around him stayed the same and they extended him already.
The other aspect is that having an excellent all-around RB doesn’t tip your hand to the play call. The committee of guys tends to be specialists, so you know to expect something different when Jamal is in rather than Swift.
I’m not arguing that Robinson is that guy (I’m no evaluator), but I can see how the value of that guy to this team right now would trump current rules of thumb on positional value.
I’ll have to check him out… I was looking at Dexter from Florida and Young from Bama. Both are very different players, Young doesn’t provide much pass rush, but is great against the run. Dexter is a better athlete and can play the run and the pass, just needs more coaching to reach his potential… He’d be a target of mine in the early 2nd round if they miss out on Carter
There’s no 1 answer. If you hate taking rb’s high, then if your team doesn’t win a super bowl, he’s a bust. If you take him high, and he has 1500 yards, yet the team goes 5-12, he wasn’t worth it.
I suppose it always bothers me that there’s this hypothetical scientific way of drafting. Like, had the Cowboys taken Buckner over Elliot, they’d have played in Super Bowls now.
I’ll die on my hill, positional value has some merit, but I also think it’s overblown, and overthought.
With this particular draft, I find the question a bit more interesting. For me, I look at the alternatives and begin to wonder if taking Bijan outside of any player except corner isn’t the play. Tyree Wilson, Luke Van Ness, Bryan Bresee, Myles Murphy these guys are not sure things IMO. When you take a player top 10 you don’t want him to bust out. These guys all have significant chances of busting out when I watch them play and read up on them. There are things to like, don’t get me wrong. But I can’t find a sense of comfort drafting them. I don’t see them as top 10 talents in other drafts.
So what about Bijan? The problem with Bijan is not talent, although we do seem to have a slight disagreement on how high is ceiling is. The problem with Bijan is positional value.
So for me on this debate, it comes down to quarterback and cornerback. Quarterback because of how important the position is and the impact a franchise QB can make, and cornerback because I think perhaps the talent aligns better with the draft slot. Not to mention its a position of need. And its fine we don’t need to rehash QB again, JMO. On cornerback, testing is so crucial. So I’ll wait and see on that. And testing is somewhat important at RB if yo ask me. I would want to make sure that Bijan testing corresponds with his production.
If the corners didn’t test out, or there were doubts, and the QB value isn’t there, and Bijan tests out, I would definitely think about Bijan. He’s a bit “icing on the cake” and as noted in earlier posts, its gamble whether he stays healthy, but I think you weight the gamble that a first rate RB will stay healthy with the gamble that an overdrafted DL pans out.
That is my point. I love Bijan as a prospect. But you almost have to assume any RB picked will be injured enough to miss about 1/3 of the games over their 1st contract. Is it worth having a top rb play half the games? Any position or player can be injured. We have to consider that RB has the highest injury rate and shortest career of any position.
Not only that, I would argue there hasn’t been a single RB drafted since 2007 that would have been worth a top 10 pick no matter where they were picked, even in hindsight. Henry probably comes closest but it’s not like he was the key to the Titans winning a championship. (Of course neither was Peterson, but he probably should have been in a Super Bowl at least once when Favre choked away that game in NO. What a great game that was). Some might argue Zeke, McCaffrey, Saquon, but the fans of the teams who drafted them wouldn’t.
So that’s every draft since 2008 without a single RB worth a top 10 pick.