Unfortunately that is correct. But these are estimates and if Nick makes a mistake, it’s usually estimating where the rounds break. Zeitler only played 86% of the snaps and is 3pts below qualifying as a 5th round pick (it killed us that he played only 18% of the snaps during the final game). DJ Reed played 52% of the snaps and Nick has him as a 4th (51% and Nick would have had him as a 5th). It’s quite possible that DJ and Zeitler are both 5ths, cancel each out and we get a 4th rounder for Carlton Davis (or even a 3rd as Nick points out in his article).
Detroit
If Ifeatu Melifonwu does not qualify, Detroit will only be eligible for a net value 7th round comp pick that will not make the 32 pick limit.
If Ifeatu Melifonwu qualifies and DJ Reed’s contract is valued in the 5th round, Detroit will get a 3rd or 4th for Carlton Davis instead of a 5th or 6th for Kevin Zeitler.
He goes through a detailed breakdown of the possibilities at the bottom of the page.
We have three players on cusps. That’s wild. Lets be the BNL, not the SOL, for these cusps. We’re due for some BNL treatment, since it was a SOL kind of year.
Rooting for the Lions took a toll on all of us this year. It’s really hard to root for a team with a winning record 4 years in a row. I miss the days of whine and RVs…
They rank all player with a score base on their APY and their snap counts.
Carlton Davis has 1934 and is classified as a 4th rounder, but is one point from being a 3rd
DJ Reed has 1838 and is classified as a 4th, but is one point from being a 5th.
Kevin Zeitler has 1732 and is classified as a 5th, but is one point from being a 6th.
Iffy has 1342 and is classified as a 7th, but is 30pts from not being classified as all..
If Reed is classified as a 5th instead of a 4th, we will get a 3rd or 4th, depending on where Davis is classified.
If Reed and Davis are both 4ths, then we will get a 5th or 6th, depending on where Zeitler gets classified.
All the above is true, unless Iffy doesn’t qualify as a 7th, then we get nothing, no matter where anyone falls.
All the above is done by Nick at OTC and it’s based on info he has analyzed over the past 20yrs or so, but it’s not an exact science. We will find out before the start of the season.
I think we will get a pick and I’d say there is a 25% equal chance of getting a 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th.
