As I’ve previously stated. Murphy seems like the same exact player as Paschal. He’s big. He gets a lot of pressures. But he doesn’t get many sacks. He also drops down to DT on passing downs. He’s also very good against the run. Murphy doesn’t have the injury history that Paschal has. But, their stats and the eye test tells me they are very alike.
I don’t believe that Murphy is a realistic option. Paschal with a healthy offseason, will give you what you can reasonably accept from Murphy.
This draft scenario is not farfetched and would be more palatable for most, I’d think.
How so?
In this case, we’re talking about guys who are toolsy but haven’t really produced in college so even though they’re highly regarded, they haven’t proven much therefore it’s mostly projecting potential with them.
You look at guys like Quinnen Williams and Buckner and you can project a higher floor because they produced in college and, to my eyes, were much more consistently disruptive.
There’s a lot of projection with Carter and Bresee because they’re raw or in Bresee’s case, missed games due to injury.
I watched alot of Clemson games and I don’t see it with Breese either. Maybe with the second first rounder. Or maybe Ika with our second rounder.
Carter was routinely double teamed, not Breese.
But I’m picturing Brad going nuts again because Carter dropped to 6.
I might be too narrow in my definition of projection. Guys like Suh and Fairley were taking snaps in college at the technique they would be at the NFL level. Since we had seen production from their natural position that translates to the pros, the Lions didn’t have to project how they would fit or what kind of production they could expect.
Quinnen Williams had more TFLs in one year than Carter did in 3, for instance.
If you’re projecting, you’re taking traits and flashes and imagining more consistent production in the league.
Anyhow, that’s what I hear when I read projection. So, in the top of the 1st, I’m looking for more production in a like collegiate role.
I don’t want Bresee at 6 overall. I know I am in the minority on this. He looks like a big project to me with an injury history.
He plays to high, his tackles are a lot of arm tackles or swinging guys around. He plays off balance and doesn’t present with a strong lower base. You don’t see the bend in him that you wanna see.
In a straight line he’s good, like a train on a track. I just don’t think he’s as sure of a stud player as you’d like to see picking that high.
I want to like him, I’ve gone back to watch his tape repeatedly because of all the hype, trying to figure out what I am missing. Ever time I watch it I come away thinking I just would prefer to go another direction.
That’s exactly what I’m saying. I think you misunderstood or I didn’t convey my point correctly.
I’m saying that there’s more projection with these guys in terms of potential because there’s not much of a production base.
When I think “projection”, I think projecting potential based on traits as opposed to production. Projecting upside, in other words.
When I think of guys who produce at a high level in college, I think “translatable” production as opposed to “projected” potential, if that makes any sense.
Anyway, we’re on the same page. I’m skeptical of these guys because they’re more potential than production at this point so you’re taking a bit of a leap of faith that their production will eventually match their potential.
Last season the Lions traded up to take Jamo… therefore, the Vikings traded down.
Yeah, we absolutely are. (And that’s why I consider it a bad word, especially in the top-10. I don’t know if others are such hard-liners in that regard.)
I don’t think anybody is excited about that option. It’s just that short of maybe Myles Murphy there aren’t really any decent options at that pick provided earlier picks go chalk.
We’re gonna have to talk about Ringo again after he measures and tests, aren’t we? Even though we know what’s coming.
I don’t disagree with you, but the counter-argument is QB Josh Allen.
I agree with this at most positions, but not DT (or TE). Colleges don’t use DTs the way the NFL does, and the few that do rotate them constantly. It keeps their production down. If you look at today’s best DTs, a lot of had average or worse numbers in college. Everyone’s offseason darling Daron Payne had a grand total of 5 sacks in 3 years at Alabama. Haloti Ngata had 10 in 3 years at Oregon, Chris Jones had 8.5 in 3 years at Mississippi State. On and on it goes.
I think DT is one of the easiest decision to hold fast on, especially because they’re moved around. McCoy was drafted to play a pass-rushing 3-tech because that was he was productive at in college, even though he was moved around (playing poorly from other spots, in fact). Payne, Ngata… they had plenty of tape demonstrating their ability to 2-gap and anchor, which is what they were drafted to do.
We’re not talking about whether a linemen can develop into something. We’re talking about how much projection is required to conclude they’re worth an early pick. If I know the profile that my lineman is supposed to fit and I don’t see him demonstrate an ability to fill that role with regularity and consistency at the college level, I’m not taking him in the top of the 1st. (just stating my opinion as clearly as I can)
Yeah that’s fine. It comes down to how you define production and at DT I agree that’s it’s usually much more nebulous. But I would argue Carter has shown those things in spades as well.
For what it’s worth, I think Bresee has about a 0% chance of being the Lions pick at #6.
Buddy, he has shown an ability to do virtually anything you’d ask of a DL in any scheme. I used the McCoy comparison in another thread. Unlike McCoy’s play that would drop off when moved him from 1-gapping interior rusher to 5-tech 2-gapper, Carter is equally effective 2-gapping as he is pass-rushing. He demonstrates enough ability to be a “multiple” team’s dream DT. The damning thing for him isn’t the demonstrated ability, it’s the regularity. His projection isn’t ~if~ he can, it’s “will he?”.
That’s true. #6 is no man’s land for us–but probably not the Raiders, Falcons and Carolina if Will Levis is still on the board.
Trades never happen, yet Dan’s aura could bend NFL physics in the moment the Lions are on the clock, solving our dilemma. It’s possible…
Yep. I think you’re spot on. I think, ideally, you’re looking at Carter, Andersen, and Murphy as the only defensive guys at #6. If those three are gone when the Lions are picking, I’d be curious to see what they do.
A lot can change between now and the draft, but I would have to guess that Brad would be desperate for a trade down.
I’m taking a guess here and think that Gonzalez will rise up draft boards. Right now he’s the only secondary player I’d consider top 10 and I think he has to knock out the offseason process to get there. You’re right though in that the list is really short at 6. I’m very intrigued at who Brad will take there for sure.