Yes.
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I don’t even think GG wants to be anywhere but here. It’s just a bit of a leverage ploy to pull back his prior comments on the issue.
Jonah and Ducey are the two that potentially could get decently large contracts though personally I don’t expect it.
Ducey is a really tough one for me. One one hand we don’t have a clearly defined space for him. On the other we could really sue that edge for our revenge tour.
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I’m beginning to think he’d take another discount on a one year deal here because A. He wants to be here and B. He was hurt this past year.
Human nature to think your stuff is worth more than. It actually is.
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Here’s a link to last years estimates, that I made along with OTC’s valuation. Several commented in the thread as well.
Chark was projected by Brad Spielberger at PFF to get a $36M/3yr contract, I think that influenced a lot of people in the forum (including me), but I would have never have guessed that he would have signed a $5M/1yr contract.
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To answer the OP, I tend to more than I should. And yes, I am looking at my den mates.
Not me. I’ve got the cold, hard, ruthlessness of a GM down pat.
Jonah: 1 year, $4M.
Reynolds: Pass
Harris: See ya
Okwara: Buh-bye
DPJ: 1 year, $2M
Badgley: GTFO of here
Skipper: Pound sand
Harris: Leave us!
Firkser: Firk off, sir.
Ceedy Duce: 1 year, $5.5M
Alualu: Alualuminimum deal
JRM: 2 years, $8M
Moseley: 1 year, $6M, all incentives
Graham: 2 years, $10M
Vildor: 1 year, $48.53
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Great topic
Fans - even smart fans* - are the worst at both overvaluing and undervaluing their team’s own players, We rarely have a good sense of the market or the value of an individual to the team.
Just a handful of examples: Goff, J Williams, J Williams, Barnes, Anzalone, Melifonwu. There are plenty of others
*not me
I personally just don’t understand passing on Reynolds, assuming he is relatively cheap (3-4mil a year). I’m a pass on DPJ if Reynolds is back.
He made a ton of important catches this year, offers great insurance against injury, and already ha s avery good rapport with Goff. Plus he is a very solid and willing blocker, which is super important to this staff.
I also think you may be a tad high on JRM, but not by much.
Overall though it is a very solid list, IMO.
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Yeah, I’d emphasize the undervalue part more than the overvalue.
The number of armchair GMs here who expect hometown discounts and “prove it” deals for just about every free agent to be signed vastly outnumber those who want to actually pay anybody.
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Brad Holmes posts on the den… confirmed.
Vildor for under 50 bucks… I like it.
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It’s wishful thinking. They may take “team friendly” deals, but, that doesn’t mean pennies on the dollar.
They’re going to get paid.
I think a lot of these players think they are worth close to what we think they are worth and often aren’t…
There is a price where the Lions will say “feel free to test the market”. If they get it, they only cared about the money and weren’t the best fit. If they don’t get it, their spot may be filled like Monty>Williams and Jones Jr> Chark.
Even Goff there is a limit to what the Lions will pay. They have a number… call it $48/year/3 years+2. If Goff is significantly above that number, the Lions may decide to let him play out his last year and consider options in the future.
Having Hooker on deck gives you something to look forward to. There is always the franchise tag or the option to negotiate again in the future.
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For the most part fan bases always over estimate their teams players. Until they do not value them at all…LOL.
Where I think we all go sideways is the whole off the field and in the locker room aspect of the players and the team. And additionally, a lower skilled player that knows his role and play book well is often more valuable to the team than a more skilled but less knowledgeable player. So there is a balancing act. Not to mention the cold hard cash aspect of the game.
We definitely overvalue players, but we also undervalue them too. Generally speaking a player is either integral or hot garbage to the fans, and we lack the frame of reference to appropriately gauge the wider market because we’re laser focused on just one team.
OTC valuations are weird, they fluctuate wildly on a week by week basis and seem to prioritize short term performance over the wider body of work over several years. Doing it on a stats only basis also misses things like players carrying injuries, and the impact of playing on a good team when a player is less exposed compared with playing on a bad team when a player is more exposed.
My guesses at APY for some of our free agents:
Jackson - $11m
Glasgow - $7m
CJGJ - $6m
Josh - $5m
DPJ - $4m
Everyone else will be in the vet min range.
Maybe I’m still in the heat of the moment, but for me if you can’t come through in the clutch it’s not gonna work out. I expect us to be playing in a lot of big games with clutch moments over the next ten years.
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I think that Holmes uses a production calculator as a starting point. Then he factors in an amount say $500k for a good locker room fit and $1mm for a leader role.
His amounts have been very consistent and I think the most telling data point we have is the 3 guys that renegotiated their contracts down last year.
Basically they didn’t contribute in 2022 and so to come back in 2023, they renegotiated (Big V, C Harris, and Romeo).
They had to have had a conversation like “We paid you $10mm this year and you didn’t play. We need you to reduce by $6mm for next year” or whatever the numbers were.
Never seen 3 players in one off season do that. Amazing work by the front office. Also not sure it is all Brad making this happen.
In Goffs Case, his production probably merits something like $46mm and he gets a $2mm lockerroom leadership bonus…
If I gave any one the impression I was calling them out I apologize, I do think ( including myself) that we have to think not only what the player means to us but what the player may mean to another team. For example I am a huge Goff fan but ( imho) the lions have put him into a perfect position for him to be this successful. Because of this I believe other teams may not be willing to give Goff 50 million or may not be in the position to sign Goff for 50 million. Is it possible ( reasonably) that Goff may sign for less (45 million cap friendly contract) same principle for Glasgow ,jackson , josh Reynolds
I get the moment is bigger in the playoffs, but Josh had multiple key catches at pivotal moments. As much as it hurts, I can’t let two drops negate all the other good.
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