How much do we have to spend in UFA?

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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This is a good time to take a look at things, we’re only a couple days away from legal tampering, the Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFA) and RFA is becoming clearer and a few of our UFA’s have re-signed.

We pretty much need to replace the guys that have expiring contracts, either by re-signing them or by replacing them. For the most part veteran players will be due roughly the amount the year before, unless they performed exceptionally, horribly or had an injury.

:point_down: :point_down: :point_down:

https://twitter.com/AndrewBrandt/status/1765797310452121895

Guarantees, Average Per Year (APY or AAV) and structure of the contract are much more important than the current year cap charge.

Teams really aren’t too concerned with the cap, they can always manipulate to make it work. For teams like Philly, Buffalo, NO, Denver, Miami, etc . . . they have to look at cap consequences plus cash consequences, but most, including the Lions don’t.

I’ve projected contracts for Goff $200M/4yr extension w/ $107M fully guaranteed ($142M practically guaranteed), ARSB $75M/3yr extension w/ $40M guaranteed, Alim $45M/3yr extension w/ $23.5M fully guaranteed. These extensions that I did resulted in $3.4M cap savings for 2024 (but it’s possible the Lions recognize a significant amount of cap in 2024 on any extensions).

Budgeting for the above extensions, draft picks, practice squad and in season moves, I have the Lions at $33.5M under the cap, but I have them with only $180M in APY for their roster (Moseley is not included in these figures). The last three years, the Lions have spent about 90% of the salary cap on the roster’s APY.

Base Beg of Year Beg of Year APY % of
Year Salary Cap Cap Charge APY Base Cap
2023 224,800,000 188,077,284 200,692,764 89.28%
2022 208,200,000 169,613,478 190,144,557 91.33%
2021 182,500,000 128,183,474 167,646,191 91.86%

So for 2024, $255.4M * 90% = $230M - 180M APY currently on the roster = $50M APY that we can add in UFA. I’ve already budgeted the draft picks.

For simplicity, when someone is signed, he replaces a guy who has a $1M APY. So, say we re-sign Glasgow for $6M APY less $1M = $5M, so we’d have $45M left in the budget ($50M-$5M).

Here’s what we need to plug our holes, IMO
3rd string vet QB
FB
Vet WR
Swing T
Starting LG
Starting RG
NT
Starting DE opposite Hutch
LB that’s primarily STer
1 outside starting CB
3 more depth CB
2 safeties
LS

Sure some may come from the draft, but you need to plug the holes in UFA and let the rookies compete for starting jobs.

With the above projected extensions for Goff, ARSB, Alim and Penni’s 5th year option plus the 2025 Rookies, the 2024 rookies 2nd year cap charges, PS, In-season . . . I have the Lions with 33 players under contract (plus 2025 rookies) and $209M in cap charges (it doesn’t include an extension for Decker, maybe it should) and $208M in APY on an estimated $270M 2025 salary cap.

If you want to look at what the Lions will spend, APY will give you a better estimate than looking at year 1 cap charges.

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Nice work @DeadStroke

The 4 I put in bold seem to be the most glaring holes. Hopefully free agency can address most of those… and then we can just draft talent.

Another possibility is a kicker to compete with Money Badger.

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Those four are key. For 3yrs, I’ve wanted them to sign a premium UDFA kicker and for 3yrs I’ve been disappointed.

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Benito & Glasgow would be a good start.

DE in Free Agency is a must.

CB, IOL, DT - first 3 draft picks

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I tend to agree and there is a lot of guys out there at edge rusher that could help us. More likely getting cut soon as well.

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Folk, McLaughlin and Zuerlein were all pretty aces from 50+ last year, and they all play outdoors. Throw some money at them, get them on a team with 14 indoor games next year and let’s roll.

Or a UDFA as you said. Point being, it’s time to address it.

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We have the absolute best forum salary cap expert of any team in the NFL.

Excellent work, as always @DeadStroke.

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PDQ Bach ain’t got nothin on Deadstroke Capology.

Readers Digest Master Class as an alternate analogy, for those not demented classical music inclined.

I’d make an analogy that doesnt make me seem old, but I am,…so…get off my lawn.

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@DeadStroke thank you for putting this together. I’m sure you had fun doing it, because that’s the way the best analytical minds work :wink:. Love reading your posts buddy!

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Remember like a week ago when some dude replied and told him to f*** off and that he was basically full of shit about the cap? I understand @DeadStroke took the high road but man I had my popcorn ready and fresh.

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Superman gets his cape tugged from time to time, and fools are lucky he don’t knock their ass out…

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Where do we rank in available APY to spend amongst the 32 teams?

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OTC doesn’t generate a good report that compares players APY and they still have players contracts that don’t expire until 03/13 in their system. Spotrac doesn’t have any of the ERFA tenders yet from any of the teams. But this report from spotrac is probably the best right now - defense - last in APY spending and Offense - 19th in APY spending, but different teams have different budgets. Eagles, Saints, Bills, Cleveland, Jets aren’t spending less APY on their team then the salary cap. All those teams spent $70 APY above the 2023 salary cap. I expect the Lions to start doing that, but not this year, more to maintain their roster, not to chase.

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That’ll tell you right there that Brad understands “Dont fight the Fed” as far as it analogizes to football.

Build a winning offense, then get the D off the mat, $ wise. Getting your O up.first aligns with The Shield wanting to drive revenue with touchdowns, not passes batted down.

THEN, as you get to where we are now, vets on D will see this as an attractive spot to get snaps and ring chase.

Then you get to draft night and Brad does what Brad does best…

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1000007996546×750 58.7 KB

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And as the rule goes, don’t ever tug on Superman’s cape. Those lucky bastards, he let them off the hook.

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DJ Reader
Danielle Hunter
Jadeveon Clowney
Kendall Fuller

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Well about <$45m after the draft.
And thats before goff and stbrown extensions that may or may not change this years cap hit.

But i think 1 corner, maybe 1 DB (saftey/NB) and 1 DL minimum.

Then whatever they want to do at OL. With glassgow// Jackson.

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Great post @DeadStroke. So basically the Lions approach under Holmes is to keep the APY around that 90% mark it seems.
Curious how other teams look at this and if it is also around that %

I wonder what this % was under Quinn? I assume if a team wanted to “go all in” they could have a APY over the Cap?

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Godzilla meets van Gogh’s “Starry Night”, not something you see everyday. Yeah, right now they’re treating the D like a red haired step child but getting this O hitting on all cylinders will keep the D off the field so that’s a plus. It will also cover lots of their shortcomings by being able to outscore their opponents in shoot outs. If we just get teams off the field on 3rd and long we’re way better than last year.

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