I had to laugh reading that. Campbell mentoring anyone on how to be a HC is crazy talk at this point. Although part of learning how to be a leader is watching a poor leader and learning what NOT to do. So I could see Campbell being useful in that aspect.
Actually… you don’t.
Not only have you ignored the point that analytics are determined by data predominantly gathered while the starting QB is playing… but you don’t even have an advantage with a starting QB when the ball is between the 30 yard line to the 15 yard line (see graph below)
It is important to remember that getting the 1st down in that situation certainly does NOT guarantee a TD will follow. As I mentioned… the Lions 30th ranked RZ efficiency (with a starting QB) is not good, and would be expected to be even lower than the poor 48% TD the Lions have this year.
And… if the Lions go for it on 4th down there… but ultimately settle for a FG after another 3 to 6 plays… they would then run more time off the clock… making it more likely that Boyle would need to go 2 minute drill if they got the ball back needing a FG.
Also… if the Lions had ended up scoring a TD and making the extra point to take a lead… Cleveland would have got the ball back with 4-5 minutes left needing only a FG to win.
If you believe it was a better gamble to go for it on 4th down… that is one thing… and you might have been right. However… there is zero relevant analytical data that supports that gamble.
Dan is not the right coach for this franchise. I’m sorry to say it. My biggest fear was his antics getting old and stale. It’s all coming to fruition
https://mobile.twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/status/1462521775816904714
Going for it in that exact situation increases the Lions chance of winning by more than 4%. It would have been the right call. Both mathematically and in actuality. Totally cool if you’ve convinced yourself otherwise, but I’m moving on from this particular debate with all due respect.
You are citing data that is based off data gathered from teams that have Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Russ, Dak, Herbert, Stafford, Lamar, and 24 other starting QBs… and not an UDFA that has thrown 12 TDs to 28 INTs since high school.
This data is not relevant to the game played in Cleveland 11/21/21… in any way possible.
That’s bullshit and you really don’t know what your talking about….
Staley isn’t the answer. Lynn isn’t the answer.
There is a lot going on in Detroit. MCDC is doing the best he can with a bullshit wr core and bums at qb.
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You took issue with my comment that the analytics didn’t support his decision, I showed you how it did, and now you’re talking about analytics not understanding Tom Brady isn’t playing QB etc…. Which shows either a lack of understanding on how analytics work, or the desire to move the goal posts.
I wish there was someone on this board for analytics like there is Deadstroke for the cap. I think people would be more familiar and less intimidated by the ideologically. It’d be good for everyone.
you referenced a tweet that shows a slight benefit of going for it… after I posted a graph and link that showed zero difference in expected points between kicking the FG and going for it.
We could probably find several more sites that debate the pros and cons based on statistical analysis of past performance of starting QBs.
The goal posts didn’t move… the point all along is that you can throw analytics out the window when the UDFA taking snaps has 4 career passing attempts prior to game… because the MOST important variable of all the data analyzed changed.
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He’s showing an understanding that analytics are just numbers that don’t have context.
You think its because people “don’t understand analytics.” That’s cute.
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That’s what I think too, man. Dan’s gonna wi here. Defense coaches are in place. OC gets fired. New talent puts us around. Biggest x-factor is QB.
Our guys will play their asses off, and it’s gonna ripple, once we get more talent (more competitive).
Our team will play their guts out. We will have much more talent. IMO, the big unanswered question is…Can we land a QB?
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I think analytics are great tools and many here understand them far more than you give credit for, that includes Phunny. Hinch, Tigers Manager, is great at analytics but he also understands where players are mentally and when to put more on their plate or less. I think that is the point Phunny is making, understanding your personnel vs the numbers. Yes the numbers show success but due to the players involved in this specific play, after two runs for the first down failed, the FG was the choice.
Personally I wanted them to go for it but I understand why they didn’t.
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A single playcall adding a 4% chance of winning isn’t a “slight benefit,” it’s a huge advantage in the world of analytics.
You’re making my point for me. This started by me saying the analytics didn’t favor Dan’s decision. You said that wasn’t true. I showed why it was true. And you’re saying analytics are invalid when the starting QB is out. That’s the definition of moving the goalposts whether you can see it or not. You’re a shining whether analytics are invalid when a back up QB is out. That’s a completely separate argument
I don’t think you can properly evaluate the coaches until they have some talent to work with. Campbell has made some mistakes but calling him a terrible coach considering the roster he’s working with is misguided.
I pin a lot of the failures of this season on Holmes. Well, on Quinn really who left a bare cupboard with minimal flexibility to provide a quick fix. Oh and the franchise QB also requested a trade.
Not surprisingly, the team sucks, as most of us knew going into the season.
As far as the 4th and 1 is concerned, I don’t think there was a “no brainer” decision either way. Sure, you could have run for it with a hot Swift but the defense was also holding up well so I can understand with plenty of time left on the clock getting to within 3 and counting on the defense to get them the ball back, which they did. I don’t think it was such an obvious decision either way.
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As Hinch has stated, analytics can’t be looked at in a vacuum which is what I think you are doing this specific play. Personally I understand the numbers but also understand the rest of the equation which is the specific players involved in this play.
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MCDC has shown to be an aggressive coach. He does understand analytics. He also understands his qb is shit and so are his wr’s. Swift scored his td on a 3rd and 8. Swift is their only offense. His playcalling at times over two games as been questionable but given what he is working with……the weather was AWFUL. I was there. It will be interesting to see if he lets Boyle throw more on Thursday. But it was cold, wet and windy…the wind kept changing directions and was the reason for the missed fg and a few punts either going too far or being short. Rather then blasting the coach. I’m telling you. Lynn calling the plays and Swift doesn’t do what he did. MCDC is handling it. Browns are a hell of a defense and a run defense. And the lions ran all over them. Another thing to remember is Boyle sucks. That interception to Swift after we picked off baker happened right in front of me. It was god awful. Swift was wide open and he threw it right to the defense. He wasn’t making good throws. Hock was open on several plays and he never saw him. So ya maybe the numbers say throw in certain situations……but swift is our offense. Bears should be coming out w 9 in the box and a 0 defense on Thursday….if they don’t their coach really should be fired.
So Our QB had a better completion percentage than Baker…. But this was in his first ever start …… and both Goff and Broyles had te same “output” yard per attempts which leans towards their respective common denominator- the WR……
And we are balking with the running game like never before…. Swift has eclipsed 250 in just two game with a stacked box….
For the needing to complain to complain…. Please…
Free hugs here!! 
Boyle threw 23 passes… and 17 of them were caught.
Only 6 passes hit the turf.
Lions players caught 15 of them… and Browns caught 2 of them… but he does throw a catchable ball. 
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It sucks we are winless: but perspective is warranted imho
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Agree with the plan and pretty much the whole post!
Nagy however… is gonna need a lot more than a win on Thursday to keep his job!
Hope he keeps the shades in his office open…
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