Red Wings 2nd Half Thread

The Den
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961

Then WHY IS HE STILL IN GR???

Why are all these precious prospects that steve refuses to trade still in GR, when we ran Gibson into the ground and Talbot is 100 years old?

Thats my point.

People point out all the time that wings are top 10 in home grown draft picks playing in NHL.

How many of them are top 6 forwards, top 4 defense and goalies?

Raymond and Seider from 6 years ago.
And Edvinson.

Everyone else is bottom half of the roster player.

When i look around the playoffs and see a bunch of impact players that were drafted within the last 4 years.

962

Because he’s 23 years old the org thought he could use another season in GR as the primary goaltender vs playing in Detroit as the backup? Time on ice is probably the most meaningful way for a player to develop.

For ■■■■■ sake man, you make it sound like Wallstedt has been in the pros for 8 years and Cossa is still toiling away in GR. This is Wallstedt’s first year in the pros. Cossa’s will be next year.

The way you lose your mind over the smallest shit like this and act like it’s a big deal is hilarious. Different players have different timelines. Everyone going into the draft had Wallstedt as a more NHL-ready player than Cossa - which is why a lot of people were suprised when Cossa was taken by the Wings with Wallstedt on the board still. This isn’t a surprise that he’s in the NHL before Cossa and for what it’s worth: Cossa’s AHL numbers are markedly better than Wallstedt’s were.

Jesper: 110 GP, 2.90 GAA, .902 SV%, 4 SO
Cossa: 123 GP, 2.46 GAA, .911 SV%. 8 SO

Oh no, Cossa is a year behind Wallstedt coming to the NHL. Boo hoo. Maybe the Wings wanted Cossa to get 100+ starts in the AHL like Wallstedt got? Wallstedt got to the AHL full-time a year before Cossa did. It makes sense he’s up in the NHL a year before Cossa is. But again, literally everyone knew Wallstedt was the more polished player than Cossa, so all this crying and bitching and moaning about Wallstedt making to the NHL before Cossa is either a) out of ignorance or b) just to hear yourself rant.

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963

It’s not quantifiable, ie spreadsheetable, is my thought. Which brings a lot of value but doesn’t cover the full picture. I don’t mean this as a shot just noticing the foundation for most of the posts rely on crunching numbers.

Even our beloved Tiger Analytic minded coach talks about what the numbers don’t include and he has to take into consideration on a daily basis.

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964

Cool, numbers?

I pulled every draft from 2019+ on (since Yzerman has been in the league) and looked at the PS value that Hockey Reference gives them (which is an estimate of how many points are contributed by each player.) This is a good way to understand how much a player has contributed to a team’s point total.

Here are the NHL Totals:

TOTAL PS 1ST RD 2ND RD 3-7 RD
1941.4 1300.4 360.9 280.1
% of Total 67.0% 18.6% 14.4%

Of all the players drafted from 2019 on, they have contributed 1941.4 total point shares.

  • 1st round picks make up 67% of the PS totals.
  • 2nd round 18.6%
  • 3rd-7th rounds only 14.4% combined M

Meaning that nearly 40% of production of all 1554 draft picks since 2019 is coming from the 70 players taken in the Top 10 the draft. And nearly 70% of production is solely from 1st rounders. Looking deeper, you can see that of 1st round picks, this is heavily weighted near the front of drafts.

TOTAL PS TOP 3 TOP 5 TOP 10
1941.4 330.9 486.1 746.6
% of Total 17.0% 25.0% 38.5%

Top 3 picks contribute 17% of the total point shares, Top 5 - picks 25%, Top 10 - 38.5%, etc.

I then went through each team and added their point shares, as well as how many players they had that fall into the above:

TEAM POINT SHARE TOP 3 TOP 5 TOP 10 1ST RD # PICKS
MON 121.8 1 3 3 8 66
OTT 109.9 1 2 4 7 48
NJ 108.5 2 3 5 8 53
ANA 106.8 3 3 6 11 59
LA 98.7 1 2 4 6 47
DET 97 0 1 5 9 67
BUF 96.9 1 1 5 11 58
ARZ 87.4 1 1 3 7 45
NYR 85.9 3 2 2 6 48
CHI 77.8 4 4 5 13 60
DAL 76 0 0 0 5 40
CAR 72.2 0 0 0 3 67
FLA 71.4 0 0 3 3 48
PHI 70.6 0 1 3 8 50
MIN 67.7 0 0 1 8 45
CLB 63.3 1 3 4 10 44
COL 55.1 0 1 1 5 36
CAL 51.2 0 0 1 8 48
NSH 48.6 0 1 1 11 53
SJ 46.7 2 3 4 9 59
WSH 44.9 0 0 1 6 41
SEA 37.7 1 2 4 5 42
LV 35.6 0 0 0 5 38
TOR 35.3 0 0 0 3 43
STL 34.7 0 0 1 8 43
VAN 33.7 0 0 1 4 44
EDM 28.9 0 0 0 4 37
NYI 28.6 0 1 1 5 41
WIN 20 0 0 1 7 34
BOS 11.6 0 0 1 4 38
TB 9.6 0 0 0 2 49
PIT 7.3 0 0 0 6 45

As you can see, the WIngs have gotten the 6th most production out of their picks since 2019. Not only that, but they’re the only team in the Top 10 that has done so without a Top 3 pick. And only one of 3 teams in the NHL to be in the Top 10 while only have a single Top 5 pick in that span.

So yeah, The Wings are getting more production out of their draft picks than most other teams in the NHL since Steve took over and they’ve done it without having high draft picks over and over and over.

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965

Now do a weighted percentile scale.

Who cares if the wings have 50 guys with a 2PS

Id rather have 2 guys with a 50ps.

Thats the key difference quality not quantity

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966

“Now manipulate the data to make it show I want it to show”

Your argument changes all the time. First it was that none of the Wings prospects can make it to the NHL. Now it’s “who cares if the Wings have 50 guys with a 2PS”. Pick a lane, dude. You constantly move the goalposts whenever the data doesn’t agree with you.

There are zero players since 2019 that have reached 50 PS. The Wings have 2 of the Top 7 PS earners since 2019, with Mo Seider being #3 and Raymond being #7.

Congratulations, you got want you wanted. The Wings have drafted two of the best players they possible could have. They have quality. #2 in the 2019 draft. #3 in the 2020 class. #10 in the 2021 class. #12 in the 2022 class. #10 and #15 in the 2023 class. They have one of the only 12 players that have played more than 10 games in the NHL from the 2024 class. And who cares about 2025? The entire class had 5 guys who played 9 or more NHL games and 4 more who combined for 9 whole games. The Wings are getting just as much (and in this case, more) contributions from their draft picks vs the rest of the NHL comparatively.

And you still didn’t respond to the entire Cossa vs. Wallstedt thing to begin with. Why was it fine for Minnesota to allow Jesper to get 3 full seasons and 100+ games in the AHL, but the Wings are a garbage organization who can’t draft and Steve sucks because they are doing the same with Cossa?

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967

Narrative is proving the presuppositions correct

968

Your proving my point.
19 & 20 top 5. Raymond and Seider.

Then after that? MID.

All the players they have from those years MID.

Wheres our scoring coming from? It aint Kasper, Finnie, Mazur, Danielson,

969

I’m proving your point, that the Red Wings have a literal player from EVERY draft from 2019-2024 that is at least in the Top 12 of their drafts in point shares? How does that prove your point at all? All it does is expose that your grasp on draft contributions is just completely inaccurate.

The simple fact is that you just don’t understand how little other teams are getting contributions from anyone other than guys at the very top of the drafts even though the data is laid out for you. You see one guy (Jesper Wallstedt - who was a first round pick) who has had a nice two game stretch run in the playoffs and extrapolate that to “everywhere I look, other teams in the NHL are getting so much production from other guys from their draft picks”.

Except they’re not. That’s why guys like Kasper/ASP/Finnie - who you’ve labeled as having “MID” contributions, are LITERALLY near the top of point shares of their draft classes. It’s just a fantasy you’re making up. There are literally a handful of players from each draft that are already making REAL, tangible impacts (because it takes time for players to develop in the NHL. This is not the NFL or NBA) and most of those players are taken in the Top 3, Top 5 picks. And once you get out of the first round, those players are almost non-existent except for a literal handful of guys.

My god. It’s like trying to reason with a wall.

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970

So what your staying because none of these guys were drafted in the top 5 they will never turn into decent scorers?

And the wings got top half players in every draft because they are virtually the only team that’s been in the bottom half of the league every year.

And so if the wings dont have a top 10 prospect that can help with scoring.

Steve is unwilling to trade these mid prospects.

Steve is unwilling to sign a FA with term.

Then WTF is he doing to help this team?

Thats my whole point. Like cool steve didnt draft absolute busts. Good job.

According to top resources.

Best prospect in the NHL.

Top 15 - MBN -
Hes been so streaky his whole career so far.
Hell have stretches where he doesnt produce. You saw that in the few times he was called up. We have that now with Raymond. Hell have 5 points in 3 games. The 1 point in 8 games

~30th best - Bear - Still 2-3 years away from being a consistent top 6 NHL Forward. Has shown real promise tho.

~40th best - Plante - Minimum 1 year from NHL time. 2-3 years from top 6 Forward. However many worry his lack of size will hurt his ability when he gets to the NHL. Well see.

~50th best - LW Genborg - Still likely 2-3 years away and is a defensive forward.

Outside the top 100. Danielson and Mazur.

Many had them projected bottom 6 anyway.

So basically our ONLY hope in the next 2 years for scoring is MBN.

Then MAYBE in 2029 or 2030 well get Bear and Plante. genborg is defensively minded.

So what in YEAR 11! Of steve, they will finally be halfway respectable?

And the kids better show up. Because EVERYONE will need a contract by then. You cant just wait for the kids. Because there wont be any money left.

971

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lol. Watching Steve’s presser, it seems like he’s well aware of all the issues people bring up that they think he’s oblivious of - 5v5 deficiencies, need more scoring, bottom 6 is garbage, etc.

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972

If they don’t have any money left, it means they had a ton of guys turn out to be players.

So the Wings young prospects are all so mid, so how come they have the #3 ranked prospect pool?

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973

Because 7 of the top 10 prospects are either Goalies, Defensemen or Defensive forwards. Not goal scorers.

The main issue with the wings is offense.

And no shit Steve. Thats been an issue with this team for 3 years now! Virtually 0 upgrades on the roster.

974

Wings have 2nd most cap this up coming off season. Yzerman is going to make at least 2 trades and sign a few as well.

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975

$8-9m going to Edvinsson tho. Plus a few other RFAs and what not.

Just over $20m in space. Still top half in space however,

They are gonna be fighting with teams like Philly and CBJ that also have a crap ton of space.

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976

Don’t see Ed getting more than MO as Seider is better and more important to the team. Salary Cap may be going up but I’m thinking around 7 tops. Wonder who his agent is. Some of them are complete pains.

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977

Yeah, especially because his play did dip a bit in the second half - though reportedly due to the lingering issues with the injury around the break. Definitely can’t see him making more than Mo. I think he tops at 7-7.5 as well. Maybe 8 if he has an excellent agent, lol

978

Just market value.
Realistically he should get 7. But i think hell beat Mo just because of the market and the cap going up

979

Lottery happened today. Leafs get the 1st pick even though they ended up 5th from the bottom. St Louis gets the 15th pick (from Detroit) so no change for them. Leafs 2nd #1 overall pick in the last decade. Apparently the lottery process is legit …….:grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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980

Jennifer Lawrence Thumbs Up GIF

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