Say no to Okudah

This is from a PFF article in January. I can’t read the whole thing because I don’t have a subscription but they are extremely high on him. In fact the article is titled “Jeff Okudah was as dominate at Ohio State as Jalen Ramsey was at Florida State.”

"We didn’t see a cornerback come off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft until pick No. 30, when the New York Giants took DeAndre Baker. That won’t happen this year. Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah will be the first at his position selected in the 2020 NFL Draft and will likely not even escape the top five.

Coming out of high school, Okudah was a consensus five-star recruit, the number one cornerback and the eighth best overall player regardless of position, per 247Sports. Okudah logged only 124 coverage snaps in his true freshman campaign in 2017 at Ohio State, but once he got significant playing time in 2018, his talent was apparent. In his 27 games over the past two years, Okudah hasn’t allowed more than 50 yards in a single game. He’s the only Power-5 cornerback to play at least 10 coverage snaps in 15 or more games and accomplish that feat.

He has all the tools to make it at the next level. Elite speed, athleticism, size — you name it, he has it. Okudah has shown off all of these over the past couple of seasons and has locked down the outside. Opposing quarterbacks have tried to catch Okudah off guard, but more often than not, it’s Okudah who wins the battle. He’s seen 93 targets when lined up at outside corner since 2018 and has allowed a first down on just 20% of those targets — over 13 percentage points below the FBS average — to lead all corners who have played in both seasons. No cornerback is going to completely prevent an explosive play from happening when they are on the field, but there are a rare handful who allow them at an incredibly low rate, and Okudah is a part of that group.

On his 400 coverage snaps, just six resulted in a 15-plus yard gain for the opposing receiver. Those six plays accounted for nearly half of Okudah’s yards allowed for the season, and he happened to be playing them all in off-coverage. When he went face-to-face with his opponent in press coverage, Okudah didn’t allow a single explosive play. He played 184 coverage snaps in press coverage and was targeted 29 times, with his longest reception allowed going for just 12 yards. That paved the way to surrendering just 3.1 yards per target in press coverage, which is over three and a half yards fewer than the FBS average."

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Lower … far lower.

I challenge anyone to supply a single CB stat that suggests Okudah is Elite. Not a team stat a CB stat. A coverage stat.

Unless Young falls to 3 than I think the Lions best bet is to trade down.

I have and I have provided that analysis in other threads. When you look at other defensive players like Brown, Simmons, and Kinlaw. Or offensive players like Jeudy, Lamb or even some of the OT’s. All of these guys have either lead or been near the top in many statistical categories. Which suggest they are Elite. Okudah has not … I haven’t seen one anyway that’s why I challenge you all to provide one.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s not that I hate on Okudah. I just hate on him at 3OA. I think he’s probably the safest CB in the draft. But if you think your getting an Elite shutdown corner the stats suggests otherwise.

The INT stat can be misleading.

David Amerson had 13 INTs in 2011 and another 5 in 2012 at North Carolina State. Was drafted in Rd 2 at No. 51 overall and washed out at age 27 after 9 INTs in 74 games (61 starts). His problem is that he was a riverboat gambler who would get INTs, but give up big plays when he missed. When forced to play within a scheme, he wasn’t the same player.

CB Jimmy Moreland was an INT and PDF machine with 18 and 63 respectively with 6 INT returns for TDs. https://herosports.com/nfl/draft-fcs-highlights-jimmy-moreland-bzbz
Went in Round 7, No. 227 overall.

Stats can be misleading–even the good ones.

If it’s so absurd support it with something other than “because the mock drafts say so.”

Give me a single statistical category that he excelled at. I’m only asking for one.

As does 100% of the posters on this board.

But if they can’t, or don’t, trade down, then who do you want them to pick?

Or, if they trade down to 5, who then?

Or what about 6, after a trade with LAC?

At what point would you accept Okudah as the pick?

PFF themselves has Okudah as the best CB prospect so how is he far lower?

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2020-nfl-draft-position-rankings

I don’t think were that far off, really. I mean if you are okay taking him in a tradedown, that would also be my preferred method of taking him.

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Lions trade down to No 6 and Dolphins take Okudah at No 5 instead of a QB:

The Lions were last in interceptions and second to last in sacks. Give me a player who can make some damn plays.

Anyone that wants to sell this as not elite, needs a checkup from the neck up!

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Who is that player in your eyes?

I have no problem with this, but we cannot shit something that isn’t there in the top 5. Brown is not Suh, he’s A’Shawn plus. Simmons is not Kalil Mack, he’s JRM plus. There is some value at OT, but does THAT check the “make some damn plays” box? No. There is Chase Young, who we aren’t going to get and then no defensive playmakers FOR US until you hit Javon Kinlaw and K’Clavon Chaisson. Want to drop a 3-5 on either of those two?? Ok, so we get the defensive playmakers, but AFTER the first round. Look at all the defensive playmakers that live in rounds 2 and 3. If we trade down we get FOUR swings AT LEAST after you take the guy who is the right value at the right spot, or as close AS POSSIBLE to that. That sir is Okudah. Then get Terrell Lewis and Blaylock in the 2nd if you want. Gallimore and Anae in the 3rd. In my last mock I gave us 5 pass rushers plus 181 tackle Evan Weaver from Cal. We STILL took Okudah after a TD w LAC at 6.

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I reject this premise entirely. Stats are not indicators of football talent. If they were we’d see Graham Harrell and Donnell Pumphrey in the hall of fame. I don’t think Okudah is a top talent because like, internet posters mock him in the top 10. I do because I have eyes and know what I am looking at, and I trust actual evaluators like Josh Norris, Matt Bowen, and established connected writers like Lance Zierlein, etc.

Chase Young or Simmons. I think both of them will have more of an impact then Okudah.

Okudah is very handsy down the field. I see it every single year. Corners who are handsy in college have a hard time transitioning to the pros.

Maybe he will be great in three years but I bet year one and maybe year 2 it will be rough.

I do like some other corners in this draft. I’m higher on AJ Terrell than it seems many are. I would definitely take Young over Okudah. Simmons is too hard to project for me to take him at 3. Or even top 5 really.

Handsy is what you want when you play press man most of the time. He’s not that handsy in a bad way, because he doesn’t draw flags and the rules are no different for PI.

After a trade down to 5 or lower then I’d be ok with the pick but I would be about as excited about it as I would be drafting one of the top OT’s too.

Personally

I like Kinlaw, Brown, Jeudy and Lamb better.

He’s lower in every measurable performance statistic for a CB.

As for PFF draft rank or Mock draft rankings. Last year they had Greedy Williams ranked top 5 too.

FYI - Last year Greedy ranked far higher in CB stats than Okudah does this year.

I’d be ok with it but he wouldn’t be my top choice. Let’s say we traded down to 8 and both him and T.J. Hockenson were on the board. I’d take Okudah … he’s far better than any TE would be.

Here’s the issue with that stat. It’s not an individual stat. You have safeties over the top that help for example.

Here’s another thing about that stat. In 2019 he was one of the best. But if you combine 2019 and 2018 stats and do a two year look at it like PFF did. He didn’t even rank in the top 10. Apparently he wasn’t all that great in 2018. What changed? Did he suddenly get significantly better or was there another variable involved like safety help?

Ok so your eyes tell you otherwise.

But what does your Brain say? If he’s so elite that he deserves to go in the top 5 than don’t you think he would rank top 5 in multiple measurable statistical categories? … how about just one?

Refs may have not of called them but I have seen them with my own eyes. Bias officiating that he is not going to get playing for the Lions.

Baker was a guy from last year. Thought he was a good corner until I started watching his games. Then your like damn hes mugging people down the field.

Im sure its correctable but believe there will be an adjustment period.

Then again thats just my opinion. Other people could see it and think its not a problem.

If we draft him, I’m gonna refer to him as “Bear”.

Bear Okudah!

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