So all year (and especially now as we’re heading into the offseason), I’ve seen names thrown around that the Lions should draft where I just think…‘That doesn’t seem like this regime’s kind of guy at all.’ So, I wanted to do a little case study and see if I could find any trends on the guys Brad/Dan are looking for and what Brad has specifically said about the draft picks they’ve made after they were drafted. I wanted to break this down into a few parts that I think are a necessity when figuring out who is a ‘Brad Holmes guy’:
- Physical Talent, which we will measure using RAS scores.
- Performance, which we will use PFF ranking/scores (I know people may disagree with their system, but they cover almost everything and really, just using them as a point of reference)
- Intangibles, which I will reference what/if anything Brad said about these guys after they were picked.
So let’s take a look at the data from 2021:
| PICK | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF 1 | PFF 2 | PFF 3 | INTANGIBLES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.7 | OT | SEWELL | 8.99 | 4 | N/A | 95.8 | 84.0 | Not just athletic, toughness, grit, football family |
| 21.41 | DT | ONWUZURIKE | 8.73 | 78 | N/A | 82.5 | 90.8 | Personality and fire, versatility |
| 21.72 | DT | MCNEILL | 8.53 | 54 | 90.7 | 79.4 | 71.8 | Versatility |
| 21.101 | CB | MELIFONWU | 9.69 | 70 | 78.8 | 72.0 | 75.8 | Versatility |
| 21.112 | WR | ST. BROWN | 7.14 | 87 | 71.7 | 73.9 | 75.0 | instictintive, tough, saavy, willing to block, tenacity, football character |
| 21.113 | LB | BARNES | 8.42 | 131 | 57.7 | 62.9 | 58.4 | Elite football character / intangibles |
| 21.257 | RB | JEFFERSON | 2.28 | 207 | 79.3 | 73.0 | 80.9 | Instinctive |
- Traded #153 & 2022 4th for #113 and #257
Some quotes regarding the draft/process after the 2021 draft that I think are pertinent:
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On culture or schemetic fit being more important: “More culture fit. Toughness, passion, grit. Does he take plays off or does he not? Does he love football or does he not? To us, that’s more important than if he’s a press or zone CB”
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On the draft process: “Stick with the plan: Get the best football player. You might say it’s GM speak, but NO! If it’s a OT, a DB, etc - it doesn’t matter, we want the best player”
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“Tough, physical, smart, explosive, instinctive players” regarding Levi, Alim, Iffy
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On Dan/Brad’s conversations regarding their process: “We aren’t just looking for talented football players, we’re looking for football players who have talent”
And now the data from 2022:
| PICK | POS | PLAYER | RAS | PFF RANK | PFF 1 | PFF 2 | PFF 3 | INTANGIBLES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.2 | DE | HUTCHINSON | 9.88 | 1 | 94.5 | 82.5 | 82.9 | Really High Motor, loves football |
| 22.12 | WR | WILLIAMS | N/A | 9 | 81.6 | 55.5 | 59.5 | Tough, gritty, “dog”, loves football |
| 22.46 | DE | PASCHAL | 9.7 | 44 | 90.0 | 77.2 | 74.7 | Versatility, elite character |
| 22.97 | S | JOSEPH | N/A | 73 | 90.4 | 73.9 | 52.6 | |
| 22.177 | TE | MITCHELL | N/A | 109 | 61.4 | 73.5 | 70.2 | |
| 22.188 | LB | RODRIGUEZ | 9.47 | 153 | 85.7 | 69.9 | 72.1 | |
| 22.217 | LB | HOUSTON | 7.93 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| 22.237 | CB | LUCAS | 8.89 | 336 | 60.5 | 80.3 | 61.6 |
- Traded #32, #34, and #66 to MIN for #12 and #46
- Traded #181 to PHI for #188 and #237
Some quotes regarding the draft/process after the 2022 draft that I think are pertinent:
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On drafting a certain position/side of the ball: “Don’t go in saying: “Don’t draft offense.” Don’t pass up good players. If the best player is an offensive guard, you don’t pass them up just because they’re not a DT or a LB. We don’t go into the draft, anchored to a position or a side (offense/defense). That’s how we roll, we just want the best player.”
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On physical traits: “Low height/bulk/arm length? What else does he bring? Does he have explosiveness, motor, instincts or some other plus quality to compensate for any shortcomings?”
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On taking a lot of team captains: “We look into the intangibles. Heavily scrutinized. Football character. How much passion & desire for game? That dictates success. Physical traits don’t mean anything without drive and conviction.”
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On Day 3: “How can they (prospective picks) help on special teams?”
So what does this all mean? What can we conclude from looking at the data?
Let’s start with the PFF grades: Holmes appears to place a high standard on on the field performance, particularly in their most previous season:
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The average PFF grade of the final season for picks in 2021 was 79.5, with 5 of the scores being 78.8+ which includes a 57.7 score from Barnes (more on him in a minute)
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The average PFF grade of the final season for picks in 2022 was 85.4(!) with 4 of the 6 elgibile picks (Houston wasn’t graded) having a 90+ rating, 2 of them having an 80+ rating, and also includes a 60.5 from Lucas (more on him in a minute)
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When taking the grades from the last three years for all players: only 9 of a possible 40 scores were under 70. Two of these were from Jamo’s years at OSU where he wasn’t on the field much at all, 6 of them are from Barnes/Lucas (more on them in a minute), one of these was Rodriguez with a 69.9 rating, barely missing the threshold.
Okay, so what about Barnes and Lucas? Good! I’m glad you asked, let’s talk about RAS:
Brad Holmes undoubtedly draft athletically gifted freaks.
- The RAS average in 2021 was 7.68, which also includes a 2.28 from Jermar Jefferson. Without JJ’s RAS, the class averages 8.58 (and Amon Ra brings that down slightly with a 7.14, which is the 2nd lowest in Brad’s drafting history.)
- The RAS average in 2022 was 9.174(!). Williams, Joseph, and Mitchell didn’t do enough to fill out an entire RAS profile, but I don’t even know if this number goes down after they test.
Now, on to the third criteria, intangibles:
This one is a little tougher, because we’re never going to sit down with these guys and get to know them one on one like the coaches are. The best we can do is rely on secondhand info in the media, which may or may not be accurate. But from Brad’s press conference comments we can see some trends here:
- Football Guys: Love & Passion for the game above all else
- Motor: Ties in with above, but players who don’t quit and are giving 100% every time they’re on the field
- Versatility: If guys can contribute in multiple ways/schemes/looks, you can play for the Lions
- GRIT: A Brad guy has to be resilient. Has to be able to take some shots and get back up./
- Leadership: This ties into character a bit, but a lot was made about the fact that almost every player the Lions drafted in 2022 was a team leader or captain in the locker room. Brad Holmes is serious when he says culture is more important than scheme.
So, what does a Brad Holmes draft pick look like? Well, I don’t think we’ll ever know exactly for sure. But I think some of these numbers help lay the groundwork for what some of these stuff looks like for those of us who like numbers.
To me looking at the data, it’s pretty clear that there is a pretty big emphasis on how the players finished their college careers. And not only their final year, but gradings throughout college being anywhere from good to decent. There are not a lot of bad seasons of football in those PFF grades. And in the rare cases where maybe the performance wasn’t there (Barnes/Lucas), their athletic gifts and character made Brad believe that they had the drive/tools to become performers in the NFL.
But not only do they have to perform well, they have to be physically gifted. The RAS scores are kind of crazy. I’d be interested to see how Brad’s two drafts stack up to others. But other than Jermar, who is a crazy outlier, all but 2 picks are in the 8.42+ range.
Of course, this is a small sample size of only 2 years, but I think for me, at least, it gives me a better idea of what Brad might be looking at when I see these things all laid out and may help me looking at potential draft prospects to see how they line up with what Brad has done in the past. Hopefully this info is useful to someone else too because I had fun looking into this.
