How often do the top available FAs hit for new teams?

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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The more I pour over this year’s FA offerings, the more I think they suck.

So I wondered, do they always suck? So I went back and looked.

Last year’s top 10 FAs (according to Gregg Rosenthal at NFL.com, who’s been ranking them for a decade which is probably the most apples to apples I can get it year over year):

  1. Javon Hargrave (Philly → SF)
  2. Orlando Brown (KC → Cincy)
  3. DeAndre Hopkins (Ariz → Tenn)
  4. CJGJ (Philly → Det)
  5. moot (Bradberry)
  6. Jessie Bates (Cincy → Atlanta)
  7. Mike McGlinchey (SF → Denver)
  8. Dre’Mont Jones (Denver → Seattle)
  9. Zach Allen (Ariz → Denver)
  10. ODB (LAR → Baltimore)

Of those I would only call Bates and maybe McGlincey real hits, and CJGJ and Dre’Mont disappointments. The rest were fine, but worth the big contracts they got? Debatable.

The year before it went:

  1. Terron Armstead (NO → Miami)
  2. JC Jackson (NE → LAC)
  3. Von Miller (LAR → Buffalo)
  4. moot (Carlton Davis)
  5. Chandler Jones (Ariz → LV)
  6. Tyrann Mathieu (KC → NO)
  7. Marcus Williams (NO → Balt)
  8. Allen Robinson (Chi → LAR)
  9. moot (Ogbah)
  10. Brandon Scherff (Wash → Jax)

Is there a single hit among them? Scherff and Williams have been fine, and Armstead has been good when healthy (which is almost never), but otherwise it’s a list filled with colossal busts and disappointments.

Let’s look at one more, 2021:

  1. moot (Trent Williams)
  2. moot (Shaq Barrett)
  3. Bud Dupree (Pitt → Tenn)
  4. Trey Hendrickson (NO → Cincy)
  5. Carl Lawson (Cincy → NYJ)
  6. Kenny Golladay (Det → NYG)
  7. Jadeveon Clowney (Sea → Cle)
  8. Joe Thuney (NE → KC)
  9. Matt Judon (Balt → NE)
  10. Cory Linsley (GB → LAC)

We have our first big hits here with Thuney and Hendrickson. Those guys have been worth every penny. And Judon had been good too, when healthy. But the rest haven’t even been passable. It’s either hit or bust.

So out of 25 guys (removing the 5 that re-signed with their prior teams), I’d say there are 2 hits, a few guys who probably justified their contracts, and the rest not worth it.

We should remember that when Brad doesn’t sign any of the top guys this year.

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It’s better this year bc of the two Minny guys but given how well
most teams have the cap figured out I doubt we’ll ever see the banner FA crops of yesteryear.

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@Thats2 kudos for insight. Interesting read.

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It just goes to show that most shiny objects lose their luster pretty quick. Only a small handful of gold nuggets are actually mined out in free agency.

In Brad we trust. Well done @Thats2!

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I’ve said this many times before. Paying top dollar for free agents is usually a fools errand, you’re paying these guys (who are in their late 20s most of the time) for what they were not what they will be.
Not to mention that some players lose that hunger and drive once they’re paid.

I know some folks want the splashy signing but I don’t think that’s the right move especially when you have a superior drafter like Holmes and co. That doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t look to sign a few quality guys but more in the Tier 2 range is the way to go. Fuller, Autry etc. Guys like that.

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This is 100% the crux of the issue. 95+% of the time, the teams they’re leaving have already squeezed the best years out of anyone who reaches FA. There are some outliers obviously, but I always say betting on outliers is bad business.

It’s also why shopping in the bargain bin can be fruitful, some of those guys haven’t actually reached their ceilings yet. Maybe it’s because they’re behind other guys like Shaq Barrett or maybe they were just misused like Hassan Redick prior to Philly. But there are some guys who fall through the cracks, and thankfully they tend to be cheaper.

(Dorrance Armstrong fits this mold this year imo as he’s been stuck behind Lawrence and Parsons, he might have some upside, though he might cost a little bit more than we want to pay since he plays edge and the options there are pretty slim).

You also find guys willing to work harder to justify their contracts in the mid/low tiers. No one’s gonna start making $5-10M per year and think “I made it!”

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To counter that, I’d argue that the only guy on Chris Jones’s level in any of those years was Trent Williams in 2021. Players as good as Chris Jones don’t usually hit the market, and there’s a good chance that Chris Jones doesn’t either.

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While I think that’s true, there’s also no denying the Chiefs have already gotten most of his good years. You just have to judge how many he has left. We signed Ngata at roughly the same age - who I would argue was every bit as good as Jones at his peak - and while he was fine, he certainly wasn’t the player he once was.

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Interesting tidbit… the Lions traded a draft pick for Ngata and that draft pick ended up being? Za’Darius Smith

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Jones is going to be 30 when the season starts, how much more peak level are you going to get from him? I wouldn’t scoff at the Lions signing him because it’s Chris freaking Jones but Father Time is undefeated and it’s a real risk to expect much prime performance from a 30+ year old non-QB.

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I think it’s reasonable to expect 2 more elite season from Chris Jones. Aaron Donald played last season at age 32 and he looked damn good still. Expecting elite level play from Jones’ age 30 and 31 seasons feels reasonable. After that? Way more dicey.

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It’s hit or miss because usually the top FA go to teams that suck because they have a lot of cap space. Usually the top teams hit in a trade.

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Chris Jones is a stud but Aaron Donald is the best iDL of all time. Their physical profiles are drastically different as well. Comparing the two seems as apples and oranges as you can get to me.

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Eh, I mean last year 3 of the top 4 guys went to SF, Cincy and Detroit. Two years ago Miami and Buffalo signed 2 of the top 3 guys. The year before Cincy and KC were in the top 10 mix. They’re not always going to teams that suck.

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Comparing them outright seems apples to oranges, agreed. Pointing out that elite DTs can still be elite in age 30 and 31 seasons seems highly relevant. I guess it depends on how you interpret what I wrote. Outlooks on this board range from “I appreciate your perspective which adds to a data point to the discussion” - highly rare but does happen in here, or “let me see if I can find/create a difference of opinion or invalidate your post so I can be the rightest” - the more common form of communication found here.

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Fair enough, I wasn’t trying for the latter. It just feels like saying he WILL make it another two years was little more than a guess (just as saying he wouldn’t make it would also be a guess), and that using Donald as an example was a way to justify it. He might make it, but then again he might not. We have no way of knowing.

Signing him is taking that risk. And honestly, hoping for the best.

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My exact words were “I think it’s reasonable to expect 2 more elite season from Chris Jones.” Copy and paste. Nothing about WILL do anything.

Back on track - I stand by my original post. I would pay Chris Jones almost anything to lock up the next 2 years of his career, which would align perfectly with the Lions current window.

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Fair enough. When I read that I hear the implied flip side: it would be unreasonable to expect him not to make it two years, which I don’t think is true. But if I mistook your intent, I apologize.

I would certainly like to have Jones on our roster going forward, it’s the “pay almost anything” aspect I disagree with. Not because I’m certain he won’t hit - as I said I have no idea - but because I’m playing the odds based on my original post. Not a big fan of betting big on outliers.

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Good post. I would add that you are also paying an amount of money that the guys own team did not feel he was worth. It seems like trading for “top” players has a higher success rate than signing a “top” FA.

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Interesting. I knew the hit rate wasn’t great but that’s brutal.

kid talking GIF by South Park

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