It’s no secret I like examining data and looking for trends to try and identify fits for the Lions. (2024 KCS List coming out soon-ish!)
Note: If you don’t like PFF and think it’s a joke, this probably won’t be for you. I admit they’re not perfect, but they’re one of the only options to look at when it comes to deeply evaluating different facets of a players game.
Aside from the normal stuff that we know about a Lions player needing the intangibles, there’s definitely something the Lions staff has said that has rang true in their player acquisitions:
"Townsend said he wants physical cornerbacks who are wired the right way mentally. “If you won’t tackle, you won’t play,” he said.
Willingness to play the run is an absolute must for a Lions DB. This plays out when looking at their drafts and UDFA acquisitions and looking at their PFF run defense grade in their final season heading into the draft:
| Draft | RDEF | UDFA | RDEF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Branch | 90.7 | Steven Gilmore | 84.1 | |
| Kerby Joseph | 76.5 | Starling Thomas V | 79.2 | |
| Chase Lucas | 75.6 | Brandon Joseph | 62 | |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 72.8 | Jerry Jacobs | 40.2 | |
| Brady Breeze | 75.6 |
The Lions have never drafted a DB with a run defense grade that is under 72.8. (Reminder that PFF scores use 60.0 as a baseline) Even looking at some of their notable UDFAs that they’ve brought in, they’ve placed a premium there as well - but with some obvious outliers like Jacobs’ 40.2 score.
When looking at the Lions current starting lineup, here are the run grades:
| 2024 Starters | RDEF |
|---|---|
| Davis III | 66.7 |
| Sutton | 67.2 |
| Branch | 83.9 |
| Joseph | 72.5 |
| Melifonwu | 74.5 |
Every starter is at least above average with Davis and Sutton being mid-60s, with the safeties being in the 70s tier, which I would call ‘Good’ and Branch in the 80s tier, which I would call ‘Great’. No ‘Elite’ 90s guys, though. So to me, it’s pretty obvious that this is something that they’re intentionally targeting and I think it’s worth applying to this draft class to see what it bears out.
So I went through PFF’s big board and checked all the RDEF grades of the secondary players. I applied an arbitrary number of 70.0 as a minimum threshold (Iffy was the lowest drafted RDEF score at 72.8) to account for some variance. These are players I think the Lions could be highly likely to draft. This is not to say if your favorite CB/S couldn’t be drafted if not on this list, because maybe they meet all the intangibles and other boxes, but it does appear to me to be less likely so.
I’ve been edging you all long enough, so here’s the list, ranked in order of where they currently are on PFF’s Big Board.
| Cornerbacks | RDEF | Safeties | RDEF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper DeJean | 78.6 | Tyler Nubin | 70.2 | |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 76.1 | Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 76 | |
| Terrion Arnold | 90.6 | Tykee Smith | 73.3 | |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 83 | Neau Brade | 70.6 | |
| Kamari Lassiter | 70.5 | Malik Mustapha | 87.5 | |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | 89 | Omar Brown | 74.3 | |
| Khyree Jackson | 82.2 | Trey Taylor | 72.7 | |
| Jarrian Jones | 74.2 | Kitan Oladapo | 91.3 | |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr | 75.1 | Josh Proctor | 83.9 | |
| Cam Hart | 73.7 | Demani Richardson | 75.9 | |
| Elijah Jones | 71.7 | |||
| Caelen Carson | 83.4 | |||
| Kalen King | 73.6 | |||
| Tarheed Still | 88.4 | |||
| Ryan Watts | 79.6 | |||
| Josh Wallace | 87.8 | |||
| Daequan Hardy | 73.7 | |||
| Myles Harden | 74.6 | |||
| Marcellas Dial | 70.7 | |||
| Jarius Monroe | 83.3 | |||
| Deantre Prince | 73.9 | |||
| Donte Kent | 79.5 |
Obviously this isn’t an exact science and Brad has shown a propensity to do the exact opposite of what I think that he will do. But if someone held a gun to my head and asked me to pick a CB or S I think the Lions would draft, I’d be using this list to narrow down my choices.
